NBA · Psychology & situation

What the history says about NBA spots

14 spots hold up after accounting for team or player quality (30 measured rates). Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27, through 2026-11-11. Every number is a rate in the spot against a baseline, with its sample.

Key spots · This week · All edges · Myths checked · NBA database

Key spots

The editor’s selection. Each row is checked against the current database when the site is built; a row that no longer matches is left out.

Spot	Measure	In spot	Baseline	n	What it means
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Win rate	45.8%	50.9%	1,372	−5.8 pp vs the expectation for quality and home court. Fatigue is real.
Rested team vs an opponent on a B2B	Win rate	56.0%	49.2%	952	+7.7 pp vs expectation. This is the biggest NBA schedule edge.
3rd game in 4 nights	Win rate	47.7%	50.8%	2,021	−3.4 pp vs expectation.
Rest 2+ days	Win rate	52.1%	49.5%	1,659	+2.4 pp vs expectation.
Game after overtime	Win rate	45.1%	50.3%	384	−4.4 pp vs expectation.
National TV	Avg combined points	225.1	229.2	1,031	National games score about 4 fewer points. This is a scoring rate.
Playoffs	Avg combined points	214.9	229.0	247	Playoff pace drops about 14 points.
Season opener	Player 3+ threes	22.3%	26.7%	788	Shooters start cold (−5.9 pp vs own norm).
Facing a former team	Player 20+ pts	15.0%	33.5%	561	Mostly a role effect, but still −3.5 pp vs the player's own norm. No "revenge game" boost.
After missing his line	Player 20+ pts	17.1%	52.8%	40,574	The raw gap is mostly player quality. Against his own norm it's −1.6 pp. There is no bounce-back.

This week’s spots

This week’s edges, every league on one page → Model Tracker

Edges come first on each game. Spots are tagged from each team’s stored schedule before the game: rest, travel, form and recent meetings. Weather, roof status, national TV and playoff series state aren’t tagged automatically. Tags describe history; they aren’t picks.

Friday, Nov 13, 2026 · 9 games

Current DraftKings and FanDuel lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. These are not kickoff closers and can move. They’re shown next to the history for reference; nothing here says which side to take.

NY at IND

Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET · Gainbridge Fieldhouse

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
SpreadBooks differ	NY −6.5 −112IND +6.5 −108	NY −7.5 −104IND +7.5 −118
TotalBooks differ	O 220.5 −110U 220.5 −110	O 219.5 −106U 219.5 −114
Moneyline	NY −241IND +199	NY −280IND +230

Player props · 13 players · 84 lines · FanDuel only

Line, then the Over (O) and Under (U) prices, as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. Click a line to open that player’s hit rates at it.

Market	FanDuel
New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson G · all hit rates →
Points	24.5O −106 U −125
Rebounds	3.5O +130 U −174
Assists	6.5O +116 U −154
Threes	2.5O +100 U −132
Pts+Reb+Ast	33.5O −125 U −106
Pts+Reb	27.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Ast	30.5O −118 U −112
Reb+Ast	9.5O −102 U −130
Karl-Anthony Towns C · all hit rates →
Points	20.5O −120 U −110
Rebounds	12.5O −120 U −110
Assists	3.5O −132 U +100
Threes	1.5O +168 U −230
Pts+Reb+Ast	37.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Reb	33.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Ast	24.5O −114 U −114
Reb+Ast	16.5O −112 U −118
OG Anunoby F · all hit rates →
Points	17.5O −114 U −114
Rebounds	5.5O +116 U −154
Assists	1.5O −166 U +124
Threes	2.5O +152 U −205
Pts+Reb+Ast	24.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Reb	22.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Ast	19.5O −114 U −114
Reb+Ast	7.5O +114 U −152
Steals	1.5O +162 U −220
Josh Hart G · all hit rates →
Points	9.5O +104 U −138
Rebounds	7.5O +104 U −138
Assists	3.5O −125 U −106
Threes	1.5O +142 U −192
Pts+Reb+Ast	20.5O −110 U −122
Pts+Reb	16.5O −110 U −120
Pts+Ast	12.5O −130 U −102
Reb+Ast	11.5O +106 U −140
Landry Shamet G · all hit rates →
Points	8.5O −130 U −102
Rebounds	2.5O +134 U −180
Assists	1.5O −120 U −110
Threes	1.5O −158 U +118
Pts+Reb+Ast	13.5O +100 U −132
Pts+Reb	11.5O −108 U −122
Pts+Ast	10.5O −122 U −108
Reb+Ast	3.5O −152 U +116
Mikal Bridges G · all hit rates →
Points	8.5O −106 U −125
Rebounds	2.5O −118 U −112
Assists	1.5O −178 U +132
Threes	1.5O +154 U −210
Pts+Reb+Ast	13.5O −104 U −128
Pts+Reb	11.5O +100 U −132
Pts+Ast	10.5O −112 U −118
Reb+Ast	4.5O −122 U −108
Miles McBride G · all hit rates →
Points	7.5O +100 U −132
Andre Drummond C · all hit rates →
Points	3.5O −130 U −102
Rebounds	6.5O −110 U −120
Pts+Reb	10.5O −108 U −122
Indiana Pacers
Pascal Siakam F · all hit rates →
Points	21.5O −114 U −114
Rebounds	6.5O −110 U −120
Assists	3.5O −136 U +102
Threes	1.5O +102 U −136
Pts+Reb+Ast	32.5O −106 U −125
Pts+Reb	28.5O −108 U −122
Pts+Ast	25.5O −110 U −120
Reb+Ast	10.5O −108 U −122
Andrew Nembhard G · all hit rates →
Points	15.5O −112 U −118
Rebounds	2.5O +104 U −138
Assists	8.5O +118 U −158
Threes	1.5O −188 U +140
Pts+Reb+Ast	26.5O −110 U −120
Pts+Reb	17.5O −130 U −102
Pts+Ast	23.5O −122 U −108
Reb+Ast	10.5O −118 U −112
Ivica Zubac C · all hit rates →
Points	13.5O −110 U −120
Rebounds	10.5O +100 U −132
Assists	2.5O +154 U −210
Pts+Reb+Ast	25.5O −125 U −106
Pts+Reb	23.5O −120 U −110
Pts+Ast	15.5O −114 U −114
Reb+Ast	12.5O −110 U −120
Kelly Oubre Jr. G · all hit rates →
Points	11.5O −108 U −122
Rebounds	3.5O −140 U +106
Threes	1.5O +152 U −205
Pts+Reb	15.5O −106 U −125
Obi Toppin F · all hit rates →
Points	9.5O −130 U −102
Rebounds	4.5O +134 U −180
Threes	1.5O −102 U −130
Pts+Reb	14.5O −102 U −130

Spots from history

Edge NY · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 47.7% vs 50.8% (n=2,021); Avg margin -1.0 vs 0.4 (n=2,021)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality IND · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality IND · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked NY · First game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference

MIL at ORL

Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET · Kia Center

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
SpreadBooks differ	MIL +9.5 −110ORL −9.5 −110	MIL +8.5 −104ORL −8.5 −118
Total	O 223.5 −106U 223.5 −114	O 223.5 −114U 223.5 −106
Moneyline	MIL +293ORL −368	MIL +330ORL −420

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

Edge MIL · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 47.7% vs 50.8% (n=2,021); Avg margin -1.0 vs 0.4 (n=2,021)
Edge ORL · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 47.7% vs 50.8% (n=2,021); Avg margin -1.0 vs 0.4 (n=2,021)
Also checked, not edges (5)
- Explained by quality MIL · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality MIL · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality MIL · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked MIL · First game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference
- Myth checked ORL · First home game after a 3+ game road trip · checked, no clear difference

ATL at CHI

Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET · United Center

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	ATL −6.5 −110CHI +6.5 −110	ATL −6.5 −118CHI +6.5 −104
TotalBooks differ	O 246.5 −110U 246.5 −110	O 244.5 −110U 244.5 −110
Moneyline	ATL −263CHI +216	ATL −260CHI +215

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

Edge ATL · Rest 2+ days · Win rate 52.1% vs 49.5% (n=1,659); Avg margin 0.7 vs -0.2 (n=1,659)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality ATL · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality CHI · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked ATL · First game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference

CLE at MIA

Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET · Kaseya Center

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	CLE +2.5 −115MIA −2.5 −105	CLE +2.5 −118MIA −2.5 −104
TotalBooks differ	O 236.5 −110U 236.5 −110	O 235.5 −110U 235.5 −110
Moneyline	CLE +105MIA −124	CLE +114MIA −134

Player props · 14 players · 98 lines · FanDuel only

Line, then the Over (O) and Under (U) prices, as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. Click a line to open that player’s hit rates at it.

Market	FanDuel
Cleveland Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell G · all hit rates →
Points	24.5O −130 U −102
Rebounds	4.5O −104 U −128
Assists	5.5O −110 U −120
Threes	2.5O −136 U +102
Pts+Reb+Ast	35.5O −114 U −114
Pts+Reb	29.5O −118 U −112
Pts+Ast	30.5O −122 U −108
Reb+Ast	10.5O +110 U −146
James Harden G · all hit rates →
Points	17.5O −102 U −130
Rebounds	4.5O +116 U −154
Assists	6.5O +110 U −146
Threes	2.5O +100 U −132
Pts+Reb+Ast	27.5O −120 U −110
Pts+Reb	21.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Ast	23.5O −112 U −118
Reb+Ast	10.5O −112 U −118
Jarrett Allen C · all hit rates →
Points	14.5O −104 U −128
Rebounds	9.5O +110 U −146
Assists	1.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Reb+Ast	24.5O −130 U −102
Pts+Reb	23.5O −108 U −122
Pts+Ast	15.5O −125 U −106
Reb+Ast	10.5O −118 U −112
Peyton Watson G · all hit rates →
Points	13.5O +104 U −136
Rebounds	4.5O −154 U +116
Assists	2.5O +126 U −172
Threes	1.5O −102 U −130
Pts+Reb+Ast	20.5O −110 U −120
Pts+Reb	18.5O −102 U −130
Pts+Ast	15.5O −108 U −122
Reb+Ast	7.5O +102 U −136
Jaylon Tyson G · all hit rates →
Points	12.5O −104 U −128
Rebounds	4.5O −160 U +120
Assists	2.5O +110 U −146
Threes	1.5O −140 U +106
Pts+Reb+Ast	19.5O −128 U −104
Pts+Reb	17.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Ast	14.5O −125 U −106
Reb+Ast	7.5O −112 U −118
Meleek Thomas G · all hit rates →
Points	11.5O −104 U −128
Rebounds	3.5O −114 U −114
Assists	1.5O +102 U −136
Threes	2.5O +162 U −220
Pts+Reb+Ast	16.5O −118 U −112
Pts+Reb	15.5O −102 U −130
Pts+Ast	12.5O −122 U −106
Reb+Ast	5.5O +116 U −154
Mario Hezonja F · all hit rates →
Points	7.5O −132 U +100
Rebounds	4.5O −136 U +102
Threes	1.5O +142 U −192
Pts+Reb	12.5O −130 U −102
Tyrese Proctor G · all hit rates →
Points	6.5O −122 U −108
Rebounds	2.5O −130 U −102
Assists	2.5O −140 U +106
Threes	1.5O +154 U −210
Pts+Reb+Ast	12.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Reb	9.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Ast	9.5O −120 U −110
Reb+Ast	5.5O −114 U −114
Miami Heat
Giannis Antetokounmpo F · all hit rates →
Points	29.5O −106 U −125
Rebounds	12.5O −114 U −114
Assists	5.5O −130 U −102
Pts+Reb+Ast	47.5O −125 U −106
Pts+Reb	41.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Ast	35.5O −110 U −120
Reb+Ast	18.5O −110 U −120
Bam Adebayo C · all hit rates →
Points	18.5O −118 U −112
Rebounds	9.5O +116 U −154
Assists	3.5O −114 U −114
Threes	1.5O +154 U −210
Pts+Reb+Ast	31.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Reb	27.5O −118 U −112
Pts+Ast	22.5O −112 U −118
Reb+Ast	12.5O −112 U −118
Davion Mitchell G · all hit rates →
Points	14.5O −102 U −130
Rebounds	2.5O −114 U −114
Assists	8.5O +112 U −148
Threes	2.5O +152 U −205
Pts+Reb+Ast	25.5O −106 U −125
Pts+Reb	16.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Ast	22.5O −114 U −114
Reb+Ast	10.5O −136 U +102
Klay Thompson G · all hit rates →
Points	13.5O −114 U −118
Assists	1.5O −198 U +146
Pts+Reb+Ast	17.5O −125 U −104
Pts+Reb	15.5O −120 U −110
Pts+Ast	15.5O −114 U −114
Reb+Ast	4.5O +110 U −146
Pelle Larsson G · all hit rates →
Points	11.5O −125 U −106
Rebounds	3.5O −130 U −102
Assists	3.5O +102 U −136
Threes	1.5O +152 U −205
Pts+Reb+Ast	19.5O −110 U −120
Pts+Reb	15.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Ast	15.5O −108 U −122
Reb+Ast	7.5O +102 U −136
Andrew Wiggins F · all hit rates →
Points	10.5O +100 U −132
Pts+Reb	13.5O −128 U −104

Spots from history

Edge MIA · Rest 2+ days · Win rate 52.1% vs 49.5% (n=1,659); Avg margin 0.7 vs -0.2 (n=1,659)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality MIA · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality MIA · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked MIA · First home game after a 3+ game road trip · checked, no clear difference

MEM at NO

Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM ET · Smoothie King Center

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	MEM −3.5 −110NO +3.5 −110	MEM −3.5 −110NO +3.5 −110
TotalBooks differ	O 234.5 −110U 234.5 −110	O 235.5 −110U 235.5 −110
Moneyline	MEM −158NO +133	MEM −158NO +134

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

No measured edge from the models for this game.
Also checked, not edges (5)
- Explained by quality MEM · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality NO · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality NO · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked Game · Division game · checked, no clear difference
- Myth checked MEM · First game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference

UTAH at HOU

Fri Nov 13, 8:30 PM ET · Toyota Center (Houston)

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	UTAH +17.5 −105HOU −17.5 −115	UTAH +17.5 −114HOU −17.5 −106
TotalBooks differ	O 217.5 −110U 217.5 −110	O 218.5 −115U 218.5 −105
Moneyline	UTAH +900HOU −1580	UTAH +900HOU −1600

Player props · 13 players · 94 lines · FanDuel only

Line, then the Over (O) and Under (U) prices, as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. Click a line to open that player’s hit rates at it.

Market	FanDuel
Utah Jazz
Keyonte George G · all hit rates →
Points	21.5O −114 U −118
Rebounds	3.5O −144 U +108
Assists	5.5O −144 U +108
Threes	2.5O +154 U −210
Pts+Reb+Ast	31.5O −118 U −114
Pts+Reb	25.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Ast	27.5O −118 U −112
Reb+Ast	9.5O −130 U −102
Darryn Peterson G · all hit rates →
Points	17.5O −108 U −122
Rebounds	4.5O +108 U −144
Assists	4.5O +116 U −154
Threes	2.5O +148 U −200
Pts+Reb+Ast	26.5O −114 U −114
Pts+Reb	21.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Ast	21.5O −125 U −106
Reb+Ast	8.5O −118 U −112
Ace Bailey G · all hit rates →
Points	13.5O −130 U −102
Rebounds	5.5O +100 U −132
Threes	1.5O −200 U +148
Pts+Reb+Ast	22.5O −104 U −128
Pts+Reb	19.5O −122 U −108
Jaxson Hayes C · all hit rates →
Points	7.5O −122 U −110
Rebounds	5.5O −106 U −125
Assists	1.5O −118 U −114
Pts+Reb+Ast	15.5O −102 U −130
Pts+Reb	13.5O −110 U −122
Pts+Ast	9.5O −112 U −118
Reb+Ast	7.5O +108 U −144
Blocks	1.5O +178 U −245
Isaiah Collier G · all hit rates →
Points	6.5O +104 U −138
Rebounds	1.5O −198 U +146
Assists	3.5O −120 U −110
Pts+Reb+Ast	12.5O −108 U −122
Pts+Reb	8.5O −108 U −122
Pts+Ast	9.5O −136 U +102
Reb+Ast	5.5O −136 U +102
Josh Green G · all hit rates →
Points	5.5O +104 U −138
Rebounds	2.5O +124 U −166
Threes	1.5O +194 U −270
Pts+Reb	7.5O −114 U −114
Houston Rockets
Kevin Durant F · all hit rates →
Points	22.5O −120 U −110
Rebounds	5.5O −162 U +122
Assists	3.5O −152 U +114
Threes	1.5O −152 U +114
Pts+Reb+Ast	32.5O −128 U −104
Pts+Reb	28.5O −128 U −104
Pts+Ast	26.5O −118 U −112
Reb+Ast	9.5O −148 U +112
Alperen Sengun C · all hit rates →
Points	20.5O −108 U −122
Rebounds	9.5O −108 U −122
Assists	6.5O −154 U +116
Pts+Reb+Ast	36.5O −120 U −110
Pts+Reb	29.5O −114 U −114
Pts+Ast	27.5O −112 U −118
Reb+Ast	16.5O −102 U −130
Amen Thompson G · all hit rates →
Points	16.5O −110 U −120
Rebounds	7.5O +108 U −144
Assists	3.5O −118 U −112
Pts+Reb+Ast	27.5O −114 U −114
Pts+Reb	23.5O −122 U −108
Pts+Ast	20.5O −102 U −130
Reb+Ast	10.5O −136 U +102
Steals	1.5O +134 U −182
Jabari Smith Jr F · all hit rates →
Points	15.5O −104 U −128
Rebounds	6.5O −130 U −102
Assists	1.5O −154 U +116
Threes	2.5O +120 U −160
Pts+Reb+Ast	24.5O −102 U −130
Pts+Reb	22.5O −104 U −128
Pts+Ast	17.5O +100 U −132
Reb+Ast	8.5O −122 U −108
Fred VanVleet G · all hit rates →
Points	12.5O −114 U −114
Rebounds	3.5O +128 U −172
Assists	5.5O +110 U −146
Threes	2.5O −118 U −112
Pts+Reb+Ast	21.5O −108 U −122
Pts+Reb	15.5O −125 U −106
Pts+Ast	17.5O −130 U −102
Reb+Ast	8.5O −112 U −118
Steals	1.5O +154 U −210
Reed Sheppard G · all hit rates →
Points	10.5O −120 U −110
Assists	2.5O +104 U −138
Threes	2.5O +134 U −180
Pts+Reb+Ast	15.5O −112 U −118
Pts+Reb	12.5O −128 U −104
Pts+Ast	13.5O −106 U −125
Reb+Ast	4.5O −114 U −114
Tari Eason F · all hit rates →
Points	9.5O −106 U −125
Assists	1.5O +110 U −146
Threes	1.5O +142 U −192
Pts+Reb+Ast	16.5O −110 U −120
Pts+Reb	14.5O −125 U −106
Pts+Ast	10.5O −128 U −104
Reb+Ast	6.5O −136 U +102

Spots from history

Edge UTAH · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 47.7% vs 50.8% (n=2,021); Avg margin -1.0 vs 0.4 (n=2,021)
Also checked, not edges (4)
- Explained by quality UTAH · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality UTAH · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality UTAH · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked UTAH · First game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference

GS at SA

Fri Nov 13, 9:30 PM ET · Frost Bank Center

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	GS +13.5 −110SA −13.5 −110	GS +13.5 −110SA −13.5 −110
Total	O 218.5 −110U 218.5 −110	O 218.5 −114U 218.5 −106
Moneyline	GS +528SA −750	GS +610SA −900

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

No measured edge from the models for this game.
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality GS · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality SA · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked SA · First home game after a 3+ game road trip · checked, no clear difference

POR at SAC

Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM ET · Golden 1 Center

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	POR −10.5 −110SAC +10.5 −110	POR −10.5 −120SAC +10.5 −102
TotalBooks differ	O 229.5 −110U 229.5 −110	O 230.5 −108U 230.5 −112
Moneyline	POR −569SAC +426	POR −560SAC +420

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

Edge POR · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 47.7% vs 50.8% (n=2,021); Avg margin -1.0 vs 0.4 (n=2,021)
Edge SAC · Rest 2+ days · Win rate 52.1% vs 49.5% (n=1,659); Avg margin 0.7 vs -0.2 (n=1,659)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality SAC · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality SAC · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked POR · First game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference

OKC at LAC

Fri Nov 13, 10:30 PM ET · Intuit Dome

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	OKC −7.5 −110LAC +7.5 −110	OKC −7.5 −118LAC +7.5 −104
TotalBooks differ	O 221.5 −110U 221.5 −110	O 222.5 −112U 222.5 −108
Moneyline	OKC −276LAC +226	OKC −300LAC +245

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

Edge OKC · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 47.7% vs 50.8% (n=2,021); Avg margin -1.0 vs 0.4 (n=2,021)
Edge LAC · Rest 2+ days · Win rate 52.1% vs 49.5% (n=1,659); Avg margin 0.7 vs -0.2 (n=1,659)
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality LAC · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality LAC · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality

All NBA edges · all time

These tables use every stored season (2023-24 to 2026-27, through 2026-11-11). To recompute the NBA findings for a shorter window, open Findings: This season · Last season · Last 5 seasons · Last 10 seasons · Last 20 seasons.

Spot	Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Win rate	56.0%	49.2%	+6.7 pp	952	Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Avg margin	2.5	-0.3	+2.8	952	Average margin +2.5 vs −0.3 in the baseline. Adjusted: +3.2 vs expectation for team strength.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Win rate	45.8%	50.9%	−5.0 pp	1,372	Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Avg margin	-1.7	0.4	−2.1	1,372	Average margin −1.7 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −2.4 vs expectation for team strength.
Game after overtime	Win rate	45.1%	50.3%	−5.2 pp	384	Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Game after overtime	Avg margin	-1.9	0.1	−2.0	384	Average margin −1.9 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	Win rate	62.2%	48.6%	+13.7 pp	871	Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	Avg margin	4.4	-0.5	+5.0	871	Average margin +4.4 vs −0.5 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.9 vs expectation for team strength.
3rd game in 4 nights	Win rate	47.7%	50.8%	−3.1 pp	2,021	Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
3rd game in 4 nights	Avg margin	-1.0	0.4	−1.4	2,021	Average margin −1.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.5 vs expectation for team strength.
Rest 2+ days	Win rate	52.1%	49.5%	+2.6 pp	1,659	Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Rest 2+ days	Avg margin	0.7	-0.2	+0.9	1,659	Average margin +0.7 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.8 vs expectation for team strength.
National TV (US)	Avg combined points	225.1	229.2	−4.1	1,031	Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
Playoffs (any round)	Avg combined points	214.9	229.0	−14.1	247	Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
Season opener	Player 3+ threes	22.3%	26.7%	−4.4 pp	788	Players reached 3+ threes in 22.3% of games, vs 26.7%. Adjusted: −5.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Season opener	Player 2+ threes	42.8%	46.8%	−4.1 pp	788	Players reached 2+ threes in 42.8% of games, vs 46.8%. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Season opener	Player 5+ ast	24.6%	27.8%	−3.2 pp	788	Players reached 5+ ast in 24.6% of games, vs 27.8%. Adjusted: −5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Facing a former team	Player 20+ pts	15.0%	33.5%	−18.5 pp	561	Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Series Game 1	Player 40+ pts+reb+ast	8.9%	12.0%	−3.1 pp	564	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.9% of games, vs 12.0%. Adjusted: −3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 8+ ast	6.1%	37.6%	−31.5 pp	49,343	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 30+ pts+reb+ast	16.3%	56.5%	−40.2 pp	40,233	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.3% of games, vs 56.5%. Adjusted: −2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 5+ ast	17.6%	56.8%	−39.2 pp	39,755	Players reached 5+ ast in 17.6% of games, vs 56.8%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 15+ pts	30.6%	65.3%	−34.7 pp	31,080	Players reached 15+ pts in 30.6% of games, vs 65.3%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 40+ pts+reb+ast	6.1%	39.3%	−33.2 pp	49,132	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Adjusted: −1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 20+ pts	17.1%	52.8%	−35.8 pp	40,574	Players reached 20+ pts in 17.1% of games, vs 52.8%. Adjusted: −1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 10+ reb	8.2%	43.7%	−35.5 pp	47,863	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 43.7%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after missing the line	Player 8+ reb	15.0%	51.0%	−36.0 pp	42,958	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 51.0%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game	Player 20+ pts	25.3%	26.4%	−1.1 pp	12,341	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game	Player avg pts	14.7	15.0	−0.3	12,341	Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 15.0. Adjusted: −0.4 vs each player’s own norm.
Day game	Player 8+ reb	23.9%	22.1%	+1.8 pp	3,462	Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myths checked

Explained by quality

A raw gap exists, but it’s about who is playing, not the spot.

4th+ game of a road trip · Player 10+ reb: 11.1% vs 12.2%, n=3,638
After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · Win rate: 41.1% vs 51.1%, n=849
Eastern team playing in Pacific time · Player 40+ pts+reb+ast: 7.3% vs 8.9%, n=1,375
Facing elimination · Player 3+ threes: 22.1% vs 26.4%, n=466
First game after a midseason move · Player 25+ pts: 21.3% vs 13.1%, n=174
First meeting vs a former team · Player 20+ pts: 12.8% vs 33.2%, n=196
Last game of a 3+ game road trip · Player 15+ pts: 45.8% vs 44.0%, n=3,915
On a 3+ game losing streak · Win rate: 35.7% vs 52.7%, n=1,263
On a 3+ game winning streak · Win rate: 60.1% vs 48.0%, n=1,282
Pacific team playing in Eastern time · Player 40+ pts+reb+ast: 11.5% vs 8.7%, n=1,294
Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · Win rate: 35.2% vs 51.7%, n=759
Revenge: lost the last meeting · Win rate: 41.8% vs 58.2%, n=3,642
Season finale (regular season) · Player 40+ pts+reb+ast: 6.3% vs 8.9%, n=605

No clear difference

The rate in the spot isn’t clearly different from the baseline.

Birthday game · Player 5+ ast: 27.0% vs 28.4%, n=126
Birthday week (+/-3 days) · Player 30+ pts+reb+ast: 31.1% vs 28.4%, n=872
Close-out chance · Player 2+ threes: 50.2% vs 46.2%, n=472
Division game · Avg combined points: 227.5 vs 228.3, n=836
Elimination game · Player 3+ threes: 23.6% vs 26.5%, n=804
First game back after missing games (any reason) · Player 30+ pts+reb+ast: 28.2% vs 29.6%, n=497
First game of a road trip · Win rate: 45.1% vs 45.4%, n=1,799
First game with a new team · Player 25+ pts: 15.4% vs 13.1%, n=306
First home game after a 3+ game road trip · Win rate: 53.1% vs 55.0%, n=591
Homecoming: road game in birth state · Player 15+ pts: 47.8% vs 45.6%, n=811
Rubber match (3rd meeting, series 1-1) · Avg combined points: 226.3 vs 228.8, n=262

Not enough data yet (computed, not published): Christmas Day, Day game after a night game, First career playoff game, Game 7, MLK Day, New Year's Day, Rookie in a playoff game.