NBA · All time: Explained by quality
First game after a midseason move
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 21.3%
- Baseline
- 13.1%
- Sample
- 174 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 174 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 21.3% | 13.1% | +8.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 41.4% | 26.3% | +15.0 pp | 174 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 41.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 20.1% | 8.9% | +11.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 20.1% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 19.5% | 8.7% | +10.8 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ ast in 19.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 20+ pts in 42.0% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 59.8% | 45.2% | +14.6 pp | 174 | Players reached 15+ pts in 59.8% of games, vs 45.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 42.0% | 27.8% | +14.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 5+ ast in 42.0% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 17.9 | 14.8 | +3.1 | 174 | Players averaged 17.9 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 52.3% | 46.8% | +5.5 pp | 174 | Players reached 2+ threes in 52.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 30.5% | 26.6% | +3.9 pp | 174 | Players reached 3+ threes in 30.5% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.4% | 12.1% | +2.3 pp | 174 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.4% | 22.2% | +4.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.4% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 1 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 1 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 50 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 50 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 50 | Too small to publish in this window: n=50 from 37 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 21.3%
- Baseline
- 13.1%
- Sample
- 174 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 174 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 21.3% | 13.1% | +8.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 41.4% | 26.3% | +15.0 pp | 174 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 41.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 20.1% | 8.9% | +11.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 20.1% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 19.5% | 8.7% | +10.8 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ ast in 19.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 20+ pts in 42.0% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 59.8% | 45.2% | +14.6 pp | 174 | Players reached 15+ pts in 59.8% of games, vs 45.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 42.0% | 27.8% | +14.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 5+ ast in 42.0% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 17.9 | 14.8 | +3.1 | 174 | Players averaged 17.9 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 52.3% | 46.8% | +5.5 pp | 174 | Players reached 2+ threes in 52.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 30.5% | 26.6% | +3.9 pp | 174 | Players reached 3+ threes in 30.5% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.4% | 12.1% | +2.3 pp | 174 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.4% | 22.2% | +4.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.4% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 21.3%
- Baseline
- 13.1%
- Sample
- 174 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 174 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 21.3% | 13.1% | +8.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 41.4% | 26.3% | +15.0 pp | 174 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 41.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 20.1% | 8.9% | +11.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 20.1% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 19.5% | 8.7% | +10.8 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ ast in 19.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 20+ pts in 42.0% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 59.8% | 45.2% | +14.6 pp | 174 | Players reached 15+ pts in 59.8% of games, vs 45.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 42.0% | 27.8% | +14.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 5+ ast in 42.0% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 17.9 | 14.8 | +3.1 | 174 | Players averaged 17.9 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 52.3% | 46.8% | +5.5 pp | 174 | Players reached 2+ threes in 52.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 30.5% | 26.6% | +3.9 pp | 174 | Players reached 3+ threes in 30.5% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.4% | 12.1% | +2.3 pp | 174 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.4% | 22.2% | +4.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.4% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 21.3%
- Baseline
- 13.1%
- Sample
- 174 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 174 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 21.3% | 13.1% | +8.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 25+ pts in 21.3% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 41.4% | 26.3% | +15.0 pp | 174 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 41.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 20.1% | 8.9% | +11.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 20.1% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 19.5% | 8.7% | +10.8 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ ast in 19.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 42.0% | 25.8% | +16.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 20+ pts in 42.0% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 59.8% | 45.2% | +14.6 pp | 174 | Players reached 15+ pts in 59.8% of games, vs 45.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 42.0% | 27.8% | +14.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 5+ ast in 42.0% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 17.9 | 14.8 | +3.1 | 174 | Players averaged 17.9 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 52.3% | 46.8% | +5.5 pp | 174 | Players reached 2+ threes in 52.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 30.5% | 26.6% | +3.9 pp | 174 | Players reached 3+ threes in 30.5% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.4% | 12.1% | +2.3 pp | 174 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.4% | 22.2% | +4.2 pp | 174 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.4% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Team differs from previous stored game in the same season
- Baseline
- Player-games with a previous stored game on the same team
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.