NHL · Psychology & situation

What the history says about NHL spots

7 spots hold up after accounting for team or player quality (30 measured rates). Seasons 2023-24 to 2026-27, through 2026-11-11. Every number is a rate in the spot against a baseline, with its sample.

Key spots · This week · All edges · Myths checked · NHL database

Key spots

The editor’s selection. Each row is checked against the current database when the site is built; a row that no longer matches is left out.

Spot	Measure	In spot	Baseline	n	What it means
Back-to-back	Win rate	43.8%	51.1%	1,253	−6.1 pp vs expectation. This is the clearest NHL fatigue signal.
Back-to-back	Skater 3+ shots on goal	23.3%	24.6%	20,795	A small dip (−1.0 pp vs own norm). Points 1+ go 34.5% vs 36.8%.
Rested team vs an opponent on a B2B	Win rate	59.0%	49.1%	864	+8.5 pp vs expectation.
Rested vs B2B	Skater 3+ shots on goal	26.0%	24.3%	14,314	+2.2 pp vs own norm.
3rd game in 4 nights	Win rate	46.7%	50.7%	1,535	−3.4 pp vs expectation.
Rest 2+ days	Win rate	52.6%	49.1%	2,353	+3.1 pp vs expectation.
Facing elimination (playoffs)	Skater 1+ points	31.6%	36.6%	1,301	Skater scoring dries up when facing elimination (−5.0 pp vs own norm).
First game after a midseason move	Skater 4+ shots on goal	4.0%	11.7%	227	New-team skaters shoot less at first.

This week’s spots

This week’s edges, every league on one page → Model Tracker

Edges come first on each game. Spots are tagged from each team’s stored schedule before the game: rest, travel, form and recent meetings. Weather, roof status, national TV and playoff series state aren’t tagged automatically. Tags describe history; they aren’t picks.

Friday, Nov 13, 2026 · 2 games

Current DraftKings and FanDuel lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. These are not kickoff closers and can move. They’re shown next to the history for reference; nothing here says which side to take.

NYR at VAN

Fri Nov 13, 9:00 PM ET · Rogers Arena

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Puck line	NYR −1.5 +114VAN +1.5 −135	NYR −1.5 +114VAN +1.5 −140
Total	O 6.5 −105U 6.5 −115	O 6.5 −104U 6.5 −118
Moneyline	NYR −225VAN +185	NYR −220VAN +180

Player props · 9 players · 14 lines · FanDuel only

Line, then the Over (O) and Under (U) prices, as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. Click a line to open that player’s hit rates at it.

Market	FanDuel
New York Rangers
Mika Zibanejad C · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O +150 U −198
Goals	0.5O +175 U −240
Pavel Dorofeyev R · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O −130 U +100
Goals	0.5O +150 U −200
Adam Fox D · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −132 U +102
Alexis Lafrenière L · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −192 U +146
Goals	0.5O +200 U −270
Gabe Perreault R · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −174 U +132
J.T. Miller C · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −168 U +128
Vancouver Canucks
Jake DeBrusk LW · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O +118 U −154
Goals	0.5O +230 U −330
Brock Boeser RW · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −148 U +114
Goals	0.5O +230 U −320
Jonathan Lekkerimäki RW · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −154 U +118

Spots from history

Edge VAN · Rest 2+ days · Win rate 52.6% vs 49.1% (n=2,353); Avg margin 0.1 vs -0.0 (n=2,353)
Also checked, not edges (5)
- Explained by quality NYR · Eastern team playing in Pacific time · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality VAN · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality VAN · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality VAN · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked NYR · 4th+ game of a road trip · checked, no clear difference

NSH at VGK

Fri Nov 13, 10:00 PM ET · T-Mobile Arena

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Puck line	NSH +1.5 −162VGK −1.5 +136	NSH +1.5 −162VGK −1.5 +132
TotalBooks differ	O 5.5 −135U 5.5 +114	O 6.5 +114U 6.5 −140
Moneyline	NSH +154VGK −185	NSH +152VGK −184

Player props · 8 players · 14 lines · FanDuel only

Line, then the Over (O) and Under (U) prices, as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. Click a line to open that player’s hit rates at it.

Market	FanDuel
Nashville Predators
Filip Forsberg L · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O −118 U −110
Goals	0.5O +210 U −290
Roman Josi D · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O −106 U −122
Steven Stamkos C · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O +106 U −138
Goals	0.5O +200 U −270
Ryan O'Reilly C · all hit rates →
Goals	0.5O +275 U −420
Vegas Golden Knights
Jack Eichel C · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O −120 U −108
Goals	0.5O +180 U −250
Mitch Marner R · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O +106 U −138
Goals	0.5O +235 U −340
Tomas Hertl C · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	2.5O +108 U −140
Goals	0.5O +190 U −260
Mark Stone R · all hit rates →
Shots on goal	1.5O −188 U +142
Goals	0.5O +180 U −250

Spots from history

Edge NSH · 3rd game in 4 nights · Win rate 46.7% vs 50.7% (n=1,535); Skater 1+ points 35.4% vs 36.7% (n=25,470)
Also checked, not edges (4)
- Explained by quality NSH · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality NSH · Revenge: lost the last meeting · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality NSH · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality VGK · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality

All NHL edges · all time

These tables use every stored season (2023-24 to 2026-27, through 2026-11-11). To recompute the NHL findings for a shorter window, open Findings: This season · Last season · Last 5 seasons · Last 10 seasons · Last 20 seasons.

Spot	Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Win rate	59.0%	49.1%	+10.0 pp	864	Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater 1+ points	38.9%	36.2%	+2.6 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.9% of games, vs 36.2%. Adjusted: +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater 1+ assists	27.3%	25.2%	+2.1 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 27.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Adjusted: +2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater 2+ shots on goal	47.7%	46.0%	+1.7 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Adjusted: +2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater 3+ shots on goal	26.0%	24.3%	+1.8 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 26.0% of games, vs 24.3%. Adjusted: +2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater 4+ shots on goal	12.6%	11.6%	+1.0 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.6% of games, vs 11.6%. Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater 1+ goals	16.7%	15.8%	+0.9 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.8%. Adjusted: +1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Avg margin	0.5	-0.0	+0.5	864	Average margin +0.5 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.4 vs expectation for team strength.
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back	Skater avg shots on goal	1.7	1.7	+0.1	14,314	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: +0.1 vs each player’s own norm.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Win rate	43.8%	51.1%	−7.2 pp	1,253	Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Skater 1+ points	34.5%	36.8%	−2.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 36.8%. Adjusted: −2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Skater 1+ assists	23.9%	25.6%	−1.7 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.9% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Skater 1+ goals	15.0%	16.1%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 16.1%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Skater 3+ shots on goal	23.3%	24.6%	−1.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 24.6%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Skater 4+ shots on goal	10.8%	11.8%	−1.0 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.8%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Avg margin	-0.3	0.1	−0.4	1,253	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.3 vs expectation for team strength.
Back-to-back (0 rest)	Skater avg shots on goal	1.6	1.7	−0.1	20,795	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.
3rd game in 4 nights	Win rate	46.7%	50.7%	−4.0 pp	1,535	Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
3rd game in 4 nights	Skater 1+ points	35.4%	36.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.4% of games, vs 36.7%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
3rd game in 4 nights	Skater 1+ assists	24.5%	25.6%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
3rd game in 4 nights	Skater 3+ shots on goal	23.4%	24.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 24.7%. Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
3rd game in 4 nights	Avg margin	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	1,535	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.2 vs expectation for team strength.
3rd game in 4 nights	Skater avg shots on goal	1.6	1.7	−0.0	25,470	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.
Rest 2+ days	Win rate	52.6%	49.1%	+3.5 pp	2,353	Teams won 52.6% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +3.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Rest 2+ days	Avg margin	0.1	-0.0	+0.2	2,353	Average margin +0.1 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.1 vs expectation for team strength.
Facing elimination	Skater 1+ points	31.6%	36.6%	−5.0 pp	1,301	Skaters reached 1+ points in 31.6% of games, vs 36.6%. Adjusted: −5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Facing elimination	Skater 1+ assists	20.8%	25.6%	−4.7 pp	1,301	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 20.8% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Elimination game	Skater 1+ points	32.5%	37.1%	−4.6 pp	2,336	Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Elimination game	Skater 1+ assists	22.1%	25.9%	−3.8 pp	2,336	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 22.1% of games, vs 25.9%. Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
First game after a midseason move	Skater 4+ shots on goal	4.0%	11.7%	−7.7 pp	227	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myths checked

Explained by quality

A raw gap exists, but it’s about who is playing, not the spot.

After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · Avg margin: -0.1 vs 0.0, n=1,762
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game · Skater 3+ shots on goal: 23.4% vs 25.6%, n=56,498
Bounce-back after missing the line · Skater 1+ goals: 14.8% vs 22.2%, n=122,035
Eastern team playing in Pacific time · Win rate: 53.0% vs 45.3%, n=319
First game back after missing games (any reason) · Skater 1+ points: 27.9% vs 38.5%, n=1,327
First game with a new team · Skater 3+ shots on goal: 14.7% vs 24.5%, n=606
On a 3+ game losing streak · Win rate: 46.6% vs 50.5%, n=1,118
On a 3+ game winning streak · Win rate: 53.1% vs 49.5%, n=1,159
Pacific team playing in Eastern time · Skater 2+ shots on goal: 43.7% vs 45.4%, n=5,318
Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · Skater 2+ shots on goal: 45.0% vs 46.1%, n=25,693
Revenge: lost the last meeting · Win rate: 48.2% vs 51.8%, n=3,921
Season finale (regular season) · Skater 2+ shots on goal: 43.5% vs 46.5%, n=1,646

No clear difference

The rate in the spot isn’t clearly different from the baseline.

4th+ game of a road trip · Win rate: 44.4% vs 46.0%, n=624
After a blowout win (letdown spot) · Win rate: 49.9% vs 50.1%, n=1,774
Birthday game · Skater 1+ assists: 30.5% vs 26.7%, n=344
Birthday week (+/-3 days) · Skater 3+ shots on goal: 24.8% vs 26.1%, n=2,551
Close-out chance · Skater 1+ points: 33.0% vs 36.4%, n=1,327
Day game · Avg combined goals: 6.3 vs 6.2, n=458
Division game · Avg combined goals: 6.2 vs 6.2, n=1,498
Facing a former team · Skater 2+ shots on goal: 40.5% vs 38.6%, n=1,473
First game of a road trip · Win rate: 46.2% vs 45.5%, n=1,904
First home game after a 3+ game road trip · Win rate: 57.3% vs 53.8%, n=688
First meeting vs a former team · Skater 1+ points: 32.1% vs 31.2%, n=467
Game after overtime · Win rate: 50.4% vs 49.9%, n=1,957
Last game of a 3+ game road trip · Win rate: 46.4% vs 45.9%, n=688
National TV (US) · Avg combined goals: 6.2 vs 6.2, n=1,083
Playoffs (any round) · Avg combined goals: 6.0 vs 6.2, n=256
Rubber match (3rd meeting, series 1-1) · Avg combined goals: 6.4 vs 6.2, n=360
Season opener · Skater 4+ shots on goal: 12.7% vs 11.7%, n=2,155
Series Game 1 · Skater 1+ assists: 27.0% vs 24.4%, n=1,489

Not enough data yet (computed, not published): Day game after a night game, Game 7, NHL stadium/outdoor event, New Year's Day.