NHL · All time: Edge
Elimination game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.5%
- Baseline
- 37.1%
- Sample
- 2,336 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,336 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 37.1% | −4.6 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 22.1% | 25.9% | −3.8 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 22.1% of games, vs 25.9%. Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.3% | 25.0% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 25.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.3% | 45.7% | −1.5 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.3% of games, vs 45.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.6% | 16.3% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.6% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.8% | 11.9% | −1.1 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 2,336 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 7 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 687 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 687 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 7 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 687 | Too small to publish in this window: n=687 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.5%
- Baseline
- 37.1%
- Sample
- 2,336 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,336 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 37.1% | −4.6 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 22.1% | 25.9% | −3.8 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 22.1% of games, vs 25.9%. Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.3% | 25.0% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 25.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.3% | 45.7% | −1.5 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.3% of games, vs 45.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.6% | 16.3% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.6% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.8% | 11.9% | −1.1 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 2,336 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.5%
- Baseline
- 37.1%
- Sample
- 2,336 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,336 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 37.1% | −4.6 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 22.1% | 25.9% | −3.8 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 22.1% of games, vs 25.9%. Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.3% | 25.0% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 25.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.3% | 45.7% | −1.5 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.3% of games, vs 45.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.6% | 16.3% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.6% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.8% | 11.9% | −1.1 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 2,336 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.5%
- Baseline
- 37.1%
- Sample
- 2,336 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,336 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 37.1% | −4.6 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 22.1% | 25.9% | −3.8 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 22.1% of games, vs 25.9%. Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.3% | 25.0% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 25.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.3% | 45.7% | −1.5 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.3% of games, vs 45.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.6% | 16.3% | −1.7 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.6% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.8% | 11.9% | −1.1 pp | 2,336 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 2,336 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(99 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- A team has 3 series wins entering the game (series state rebuilt from stored games)
- Baseline
- Other playoff games
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.