NFL · Psychology & situation

What the history says about NFL spots

14 spots hold up after accounting for team or player quality (37 measured rates). Seasons 2020–2026, through 2026-11-09. Every number is a rate in the spot against a baseline, with its sample.

Key spots · This week · All edges · Myths checked · NFL database

Key spots

The editor’s selection. Each row is checked against the current database when the site is built; a row that no longer matches is left out.

Spot	Measure	In spot	Baseline	n	What it means
Wind 15+ mph (outdoor)	QB 200+ pass yds	40.3%	62.0%	181	Wind is the strongest weather signal. QB yards drop about 28 per game, and it holds against each QB's own norm (−20.8 pp).
Wind 15+ mph	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	22.3%	28.5%	873	Receivers fade with their QB.
Rain (outdoor)	Avg combined points	42.4	44.7	245	Rain trims about 2 points of scoring. This is a scoring rate, not an under record.
Rain	QB 225+ pass yds	41.6%	47.7%	502	A modest passing dip (−7.3 pp vs own norm).
Dome / closed roof	Avg combined points	47.2	44.1	445	Indoor games score about 3 more points.
Dome	WR/TE 40+ rec yds	41.3%	37.0%	4,416	Still +2.1 pp vs each receiver's own norm.
Off a bye (13+ days)	Win rate	58.9%	49.2%	231	+6.8 pp above the expectation for team strength and home field.
Off a bye	RB 70+ rush yds	37.0%	29.2%	316	Rested backs run better (+8.7 pp vs own norm).
Division game	QB 250+ pass yds	35.3%	39.9%	1,323	Familiar defenses cap big passing days (−3.8 pp vs own norm).
Season finale	QB avg pass yds	204.0	227.1	204	Most likely resting and limited snaps in Week 18.
First game back after missing time (any reason)	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	21.7%	37.8%	808	Returning players run below their norm in game 1 (−3.8 pp vs own norm).
Late & close passing (Q4/OT, within 8; 2024–26 pbp)	Completion rate (pass plays)	57.5%	60.5%	7,120	Completion rates dip in pressure snaps.

This week’s spots

This week’s edges, every league on one page → Model Tracker

Edges come first on each game. Spots are tagged from each team’s stored schedule before the game: rest, travel, form and recent meetings. Weather, roof status, national TV and playoff series state aren’t tagged automatically. Tags describe history; they aren’t picks.

Sunday and Monday, Nov 15–16, 2026 · 13 games

Current DraftKings and FanDuel lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. These are not kickoff closers and can move. They’re shown next to the history for reference; nothing here says which side to take.

NE at DET

Sun Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET · FC Bayern Munich Stadium

Venue isn’t the home team’s usual arena; treated as neutral.

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	NE +2.5 +100DET −2.5 −120	NE +2.5 +100DET −2.5 −120
TotalBooks differ	O 50.5 −102U 50.5 −118	O 49.5 −115U 49.5 −105
Moneyline	NE +124DET −148	NE +124DET −146

Player props · 9 players · 28 lines

Line, then the Over (O) and Under (U) prices, as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET. Click a line to open that player’s hit rates at it. Lines differ marks markets where the two books post different numbers.

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
New England Patriots
Drake Maye QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	258.5O −111 U −113	262.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −134 U +105	1.5O −136 U +102
Completions	21.5O +102 U −130	–
Pass attempts	34.5O −113 U −112	–
Interceptions	0.5O −143 U +112	–
Rush yardsLines differ	27.5O −110 U −114	26.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	4.5O −108 U −118	–
Hunter Henry TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	34.5O −115 U −109	35.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +116 U −148	3.5O +116 U −154
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	262.5O −111 U −113	268.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −164 U +128	1.5O −186 U +138
Completions	22.5O −114 U −112	–
Pass attempts	34.5O −120 U −106	–
Interceptions	0.5O −107 U −119	–
Rush yards	0.5O −102 U −123	0.5O +104 U −135
Jahmyr Gibbs RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	96.5O −112 U −112	95.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	20.5O −108 U −118	–
Receiving yards	31.5O −112 U −112	31.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +123 U −157	4.5O +104 U −138
Sione Vaki RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	13.5O −108 U −116	12.5O −114 U −114
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	77.5O −111 U −113	78.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	7.5O +109 U −139	7.5O +102 U −136
Jameson Williams WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	53.5O −114 U −110	56.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −131 U +103	3.5O −138 U +104
Sam LaPorta TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	41.5O −110 U −114	42.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +123 U −157	4.5O +124 U −166
Isaac TeSlaa WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	15.5O −112 U −112	16.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +132 U −169	1.5O +124 U −166

Spots from history

No measured edge from the models for this game.
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality NE · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality DET · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality

KC at ATL

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
SpreadBooks differ	KC −3 −120ATL +3 +100	KC −3.5 +100ATL +3.5 −120
TotalBooks differ	O 46.5 −110U 46.5 −110	O 47.5 −105U 47.5 −115
Moneyline	KC −180ATL +150	KC −174ATL +146

Player props · 15 players · 45 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	244.5O −111 U −113	238.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −134 U +105	1.5O −125 U −106
Completions	21.5O −118 U −108	–
Pass attempts	32.5O −112 U −114	–
Interceptions	0.5O +131 U −167	–
Rush yardsLines differ	10.5O −107 U −117	8.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	2.5O −150 U +117	–
Kenneth Walker III RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	89.5O −112 U −112	90.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	18.5O −124 U −103	–
Receiving yards	18.5O −114 U −110	18.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −143 U +112	2.5O −162 U +122
Emmett Johnson RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	9.5O −111 U −113	9.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yardsLines differ	12.5O −115 U −109	11.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −166 U +130	1.5O −148 U +112
Rashee Rice WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	56.5O −109 U −115	54.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O +122 U −155	5.5O +124 U −166
Travis Kelce TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	48.5O −109 U −115	47.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +120 U −154	4.5O +124 U −166
Xavier Worthy WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	26.5O −114 U −110	26.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −136 U +107	2.5O −130 U −102
Noah Gray TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	10.5O −113 U −111	10.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +124 U −159	1.5O +124 U −166
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	216.5O −113 U −111	215.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +123 U −157	1.5O +124 U −166
Completions	20.5O −102 U −125	–
Pass attempts	31.5O −124 U −103	–
Interceptions	0.5O −112 U −114	–
Rush yardsLines differ	6.5O −118 U −106	7.5O −114 U −114
Bijan Robinson RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	86.5O −110 U −114	86.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	19.5O −128 U +100	–
Receiving yards	28.5O −109 U −115	28.5O −114 U −114
ReceptionsLines differ	3.5O −158 U +124	4.5O +130 U −174
Khalil Herbert RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	9.5O −118 U −106	8.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yardsLines differ	3.5O −113 U −111	2.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	0.5O −178 U +139	0.5O −205 U +152
Drake London WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	71.5O −110 U −114	72.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O −121 U −106	5.5O −118 U −112
Kyle Pitts TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	36.5O −113 U −111	37.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −133 U +104	3.5O −162 U +122
Jahan Dotson WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	27.5O −115 U −109	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +143 U −184	2.5O +154 U −210
Olamide Zaccheaus WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	7.5O −112 U −112	7.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +134 U −171	1.5O +124 U −166
Not matched to a stored player on either team
Josh Downs listed in this game by the book; his last stored team is IND, so no hit-rate link
Receiving yards	21.5O −109 U −115	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +118 U −151	2.5O +116 U −154

Spots from history

Edge KC · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality ATL · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked ATL · Game after an international trip · checked, no clear difference

BUF at NYJ

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
SpreadBooks differ	BUF −8.5 −108NYJ +8.5 −112	BUF −7.5 −115NYJ +7.5 −105
Total	O 50.5 −118U 50.5 −102	O 50.5 −120U 50.5 +100
Moneyline	BUF −440NYJ +340	BUF −460NYJ +360

Player props · 16 players · 46 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	234.5O −113 U −111	235.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −155 U +121	1.5O −162 U +122
Completions	19.5O −123 U −103	–
Pass attempts	28.5O −114 U −112	–
Interceptions	0.5O +135 U −173	–
Rush yards	27.5O −114 U −111	27.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	6.5O −117 U −109	–
James Cook RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	92.5O −114 U −110	91.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	19.5O −127 U +100	–
Receiving yards	7.5O −120 U −105	7.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +112 U −143	1.5O +114 U −148
DJ Moore WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	45.5O −111 U −114	44.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −101 U −126	3.5O −102 U −130
Khalil Shakir WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	45.5O −111 U −113	42.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −137 U +107	3.5O −138 U +104
Dalton Kincaid TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	40.5O −110 U −114	41.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +117 U −149	3.5O −102 U −130
Keon Coleman WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	27.5O −111 U −113	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +118 U −151	2.5O +108 U −144
Ty Johnson RB · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	15.5O −113 U −111	15.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −161 U +126	1.5O −172 U +128
Dawson Knox TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	12.5O −111 U −113	11.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −111 U −115	1.5O −114 U −114
New York Jets
Geno Smith QB · all hit rates →
Pass yards	220.5O −113 U −111	220.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +163 U −210	1.5O +164 U −225
Completions	20.5O +100 U −127	–
Pass attempts	31.5O −101 U −126	–
Interceptions	0.5O −106 U −120	–
Rush yardsLines differ	4.5O −112 U −112	5.5O −114 U −114
Breece Hall RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	53.5O −112 U −112	52.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	13.5O +101 U −129	–
Receiving yards	17.5O −113 U −111	17.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −109 U −116	2.5O −110 U −120
Braelon Allen RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	33.5O −115 U −109	33.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yards	6.5O −113 U −111	6.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +105 U −134	1.5O −102 U −130
Garrett Wilson WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	60.5O −111 U −113	61.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O +120 U −153	5.5O +102 U −136
Omar Cooper Jr. WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	37.5O −110 U −114	37.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +109 U −139	3.5O +106 U −140
Adonai Mitchell WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	34.5O −109 U −115	36.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −133 U +104	2.5O −154 U +116
Kenyon Sadiq TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	22.5O −115 U −109	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +131 U −167	2.5O +116 U −154
Mason Taylor TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	15.5O −113 U −111	15.5O −114 U −114
ReceptionsLines differ	2.5O +139 U −179	1.5O −215 U +158

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge BUF · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Edge NYJ · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · RB 1+ TD 32.2% vs 40.1% (n=286)
Edge NYJ · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Also checked, not edges (4)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality BUF · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality NYJ · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality NYJ · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality

CAR at NO

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	CAR +2.5 −112NO −2.5 −108	CAR +2.5 −115NO −2.5 −105
Total	O 48.5 −112U 48.5 −108	O 48.5 −115U 48.5 −105
Moneyline	CAR +114NO −135	CAR +110NO −130

Player props · 13 players · 38 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young QB · all hit rates →
Pass yards	244.5O −113 U −111	244.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −123 U −104	1.5O −132 U +100
Completions	22.5O −113 U −112	–
Pass attempts	36.5O −105 U −122	–
Interceptions	0.5O −111 U −115	–
Rush yardsLines differ	8.5O −108 U −116	7.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	2.5O +107 U −137	–
Chuba Hubbard RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	79.5O −110 U −114	80.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	17.5O −114 U −111	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	18.5O −107 U −117	17.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −167 U +130	2.5O −140 U +106
Tetairoa McMillan WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	64.5O −114 U −110	65.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O +109 U −139	5.5O +124 U −166
Jalen Coker WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	47.5O −111 U −113	47.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +112 U −143	4.5O +112 U −148
Darren Waller TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	29.5O −114 U −110	29.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −132 U +104	2.5O −130 U −102
John Metchie III WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	–	13.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	–	1.5O −138 U +104
Tommy Tremble TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	13.5O −116 U −109	13.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +141 U −181	2.5O +134 U −180
New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	251.5O −113 U −111	252.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −133 U +105	1.5O −152 U +114
Completions	24.5O −113 U −113	–
Pass attempts	35.5O −122 U −105	–
Interceptions	0.5O −125 U −102	–
Rush yardsLines differ	18.5O −108 U −116	16.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	4.5O −133 U +105	–
Chris Olave WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	73.5O −111 U −113	73.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O −147 U +115	5.5O −138 U +104
Jordyn Tyson WR
Receiving yardsLines differ	42.5O −111 U −113	41.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +120 U −153	4.5O +130 U −174
Devaughn Vele WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	27.5O −114 U −110	27.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +116 U −148	3.5O +116 U −154
Juwan Johnson TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	24.5O −111 U −113	24.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −138 U +108	2.5O −158 U +118
Noah Fant TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	5.5O −116 U −108	5.5O −102 U −128
Receptions	0.5O −237 U +183	0.5O −205 U +152

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge CAR · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality CAR · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked NO · Game after overtime · checked, no clear difference

HOU at CLE

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	HOU −4.5 −110CLE +4.5 −110	HOU −4.5 −115CLE +4.5 −105
Total	O 40.5 −108U 40.5 −112	O 40.5 −105U 40.5 −115
Moneyline	HOU −225CLE +185	HOU −235CLE +194

Player props · 13 players · 38 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	245.5O −111 U −113	244.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −105 U −121	1.5O −112 U −118
Completions	20.5O −115 U −111	–
Pass attempts	34.5O −104 U −123	–
Interceptions	0.5O −115 U −111	–
Rush yards	8.5O −105 U −120	8.5O −114 U −114
Nico Collins WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	56.5O −114 U −110	58.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +112 U −143	4.5O +106 U −140
Tank Dell WR
Receiving yardsLines differ	36.5O −110 U −114	33.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −130 U +102	2.5O −138 U +104
Dalton Schultz TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	30.5O −115 U −109	31.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +109 U −139	3.5O −108 U −122
Xavier Hutchinson WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	28.5O −111 U −113	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −139 U +109	2.5O −148 U +112
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	17.5O −109 U −115	19.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −129 U +102	1.5O −138 U +104
Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	210.5O −112 U −112	209.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDsLines differ	0.5O −262 U +201	1.5O +198 U −275
Completions	19.5O −115 U −111	–
Pass attempts	31.5O −109 U −117	–
Interceptions	0.5O −127 U +100	–
Rush yardsLines differ	25.5O −116 U −108	24.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	6.5O −120 U −107	–
Quinshon Judkins RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	43.5O −109 U −115	44.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	13.5O +100 U −128	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	6.5O −108 U −116	5.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +139 U −179	1.5O +154 U −210
Dylan Sampson RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	19.5O −113 U −111	18.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yards	21.5O −112 U −112	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +119 U −152	3.5O +114 U −148
KC Concepcion WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	47.5O −115 U −110	46.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O −101 U −126	4.5O −108 U −122
Denzel Boston WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	45.5O −109 U −115	45.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +116 U −148	3.5O +118 U −158
Harold Fannin Jr. TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	38.5O −109 U −115	38.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −148 U +116	3.5O −154 U +116
Jerry Jeudy WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	–	16.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	–	1.5O −136 U +102

Spots from history

Edge HOU · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked CLE · Game after overtime · checked, no clear difference

MIN at GB

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	MIN +3 −115GB −3 −105	MIN +3 −110GB −3 −110
TotalBooks differ	O 41.5 −115U 41.5 −105	O 42.5 −105U 42.5 −115
Moneyline	MIN +124GB −148	MIN +138GB −164

Player props · 13 players · 36 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Minnesota Vikings
Jordan Mason RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	45.5O −109 U −115	45.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	11.5O −111 U −115	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	2.5O −119 U −106	3.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	0.5O −173 U +135	0.5O −172 U +128
Aaron Jones RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	28.5O −109 U −115	28.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	8.5O −118 U −108	–
Receiving yards	9.5O −104 U −120	9.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −151 U +118	1.5O −158 U +118
Justin Jefferson WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	79.5O −112 U −112	77.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	6.5O +102 U −130	6.5O +112 U −148
Jordan Addison WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	41.5O −110 U −114	–
Receptions	3.5O −125 U −102	–
T.J. Hockenson TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	39.5O −113 U −111	–
Receptions	4.5O −106 U −120	–
Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	249.5O −112 U −112	251.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −126 U −101	1.5O −125 U −106
Completions	22.5O −106 U −120	–
Pass attempts	35.5O −102 U −125	–
Interceptions	0.5O −142 U +111	–
Rush yards	4.5O −116 U −108	4.5O −108 U −120
Kaleb Johnson RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	30.5O −111 U −113	30.5O −114 U −114
MarShawn Lloyd RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	11.5O −105 U −119	11.5O −114 U −114
Christian Watson WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	74.5O −111 U −113	75.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O −148 U +116	4.5O −138 U +104
Matthew Golden WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	69.5O −112 U −112	69.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O +109 U −139	5.5O +106 U −140
Tucker Kraft TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	37.5O −111 U −113	37.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +127 U −162	4.5O +134 U −180
Savion Williams WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	20.5O −110 U −114	20.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +126 U −162	2.5O +124 U −166
Not matched to a stored player on either team
Kirk Cousins listed in this game by the book; his last stored team is LV, so no hit-rate link
Pass yardsLines differ	232.5O −113 U −111	235.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +129 U −165	1.5O +146 U −198
Completions	21.5O −107 U −119	–
Pass attempts	32.5O −123 U −103	–
Interceptions	0.5O −143 U +112	–
Rush yards	0.5O −112 U −112	0.5O −110 U −118

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge GB · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Edge GB · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · RB 1+ TD 32.2% vs 40.1% (n=286)
Edge GB · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality MIN · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality

MIA at IND

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	MIA +3.5 −102IND −3.5 −118	MIA +3.5 −105IND −3.5 −115
TotalBooks differ	O 38.5 −105U 38.5 −115	O 37.5 −115U 37.5 −105
Moneyline	MIA +170IND −205	MIA +180IND −215

Player props · 14 players · 38 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Miami Dolphins
Ollie Gordon II RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	75.5O −110 U −114	72.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	17.5O −124 U −103	–
Receiving yards	5.5O −120 U −105	5.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −116 U −109	1.5O −130 U −102
Jaylen Wright RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	13.5O −113 U −111	12.5O −114 U −114
Caleb Douglas WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	40.5O −114 U −110	42.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −102 U −125	3.5O +102 U −136
Malik Washington WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	32.5O −111 U −113	35.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +102 U −130	3.5O −108 U −122
Greg Dulcich TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	34.5O −109 U −115	34.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −109 U −116	3.5O −112 U −118
Chris Bell WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	14.5O −113 U −111	14.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −118 U −108	1.5O −114 U −114
Indianapolis Colts
Daniel Jones QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	187.5O −111 U −113	182.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +172 U −223	1.5O +174 U −240
Completions	19.5O +103 U −131	–
Pass attempts	29.5O −120 U −106	–
Interceptions	0.5O −128 U +100	–
Rush yardsLines differ	8.5O −109 U −115	7.5O −120 U −108
Jonathan Taylor RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	69.5O −114 U −110	69.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	15.5O +104 U −133	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	22.5O −115 U −110	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +109 U −139	3.5O +108 U −144
Seth McGowan RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	24.5O −111 U −113	24.5O −114 U −114
Tyler Warren TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	46.5O −114 U −110	44.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O −142 U +111	5.5O −148 U +112
Laquon Treadwell WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	30.5O −113 U −111	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +106 U −135	2.5O +112 U −148
Deion Burks WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	18.5O −113 U −111	17.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +145 U −186	2.5O +158 U −215
Ashton Dulin WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	10.5O −110 U −114	7.5O −114 U −114
ReceptionsLines differ	1.5O +188 U −244	0.5O −250 U +182
Not matched to a stored player on either team
Kyle McCord no stored games under this name yet
Pass yardsLines differ	159.5O −113 U −111	158.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	0.5O −194 U +151	0.5O −210 U +154
Completions	15.5O −132 U +103	–
Pass attempts	27.5O −119 U −107	–
Interceptions	0.5O −147 U +115	–
Rush yards	6.5O −108 U −116	6.5O −114 U −114

Spots from history

No measured edge from the models for this game.
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality IND · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality

JAX at TEN

Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Nissan Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	JAX −10.5 −112TEN +10.5 −108	JAX −10.5 −110TEN +10.5 −110
Total	O 46.5 −110U 46.5 −110	O 46.5 +100U 46.5 −120
Moneyline	JAX −600TEN +440	JAX −700TEN +500

Player props · 11 players · 33 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	239.5O −111 U −113	247.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −160 U +125	1.5O −192 U +142
Completions	19.5O −131 U +103	–
Pass attempts	29.5O −111 U −115	–
Interceptions	0.5O +114 U −146	–
Rush yardsLines differ	8.5O −108 U −116	7.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	3.5O +128 U −163	–
Bhayshul Tuten RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	63.5O −111 U −113	59.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	14.5O −129 U +101	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	11.5O −106 U −118	13.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −171 U +134	1.5O −148 U +112
Parker Washington WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	62.5O −110 U −114	60.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +109 U −140	4.5O +120 U −160
Jakobi Meyers WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	40.5O −109 U −115	41.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −111 U −115	3.5O −114 U −114
Brenton Strange TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	33.5O −113 U −111	35.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +126 U −161	3.5O +120 U −160
Nate Boerkircher TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	11.5O −112 U −112	9.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +135 U −174	1.5O +124 U −166
Travis Hunter WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	8.5O −113 U −111	9.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +166 U −214	1.5O +172 U −235
Brian Thomas Jr WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	8.5O −112 U −112	8.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	0.5O −192 U +149	0.5O −230 U +168
Josh Cameron WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	7.5O −116 U −108	6.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	0.5O −227 U +176	0.5O −205 U +152
Tennessee Titans
Cam Ward QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	202.5O −112 U −112	198.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	0.5O −257 U +197	0.5O −230 U +168
Completions	20.5O −114 U −111	–
Pass attempts	33.5O −102 U −125	–
Interceptions	0.5O −123 U −104	–
Rush yards	11.5O −105 U −119	11.5O −114 U −114
Tony Pollard RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	55.5O −114 U −110	58.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	15.5O +101 U −129	–

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge JAX · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Edge TEN · Revenge: blown out in the last meeting · RB 1+ TD 32.2% vs 40.1% (n=286)
Edge TEN · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Edge TEN · Off a bye (13+ days) · Win rate 58.9% vs 49.2% (n=231); RB 70+ rush yds 37.0% vs 29.2% (n=316)
Also checked, not edges (3)
- Explained by quality Game · Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality JAX · Facing a team off a bye · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked TEN · Game after overtime · checked, no clear difference

LAR at ARI

Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET · State Farm Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	LAR −9.5 −112ARI +9.5 −108	LAR −9.5 −110ARI +9.5 −110
Total	O 39.5 −108U 39.5 −112	O 39.5 −110U 39.5 −110
Moneyline	LAR −485ARI +370	LAR −550ARI +410

Player props · 16 players · 49 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	215.5O −111 U −113	209.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +101 U −129	1.5O +104 U −138
Completions	20.5O −114 U −111	–
Pass attempts	31.5O −108 U −118	–
Interceptions	0.5O +106 U −135	–
Rush yards	0.5O +120 U −150	0.5O +116 U −152
Kyren Williams RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	66.5O −110 U −114	64.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	15.5O −116 U −110	–
Receiving yards	19.5O −117 U −108	19.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −152 U +119	2.5O −154 U +116
Blake Corum RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	60.5O −114 U −110	58.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	11.5O −128 U +100	–
Receiving yards	6.5O −120 U −104	6.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +118 U −150	1.5O +134 U −180
Tyler Higbee TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	35.5O −115 U −109	35.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −147 U +115	3.5O −130 U −102
Colby Parkinson TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	32.5O −115 U −109	31.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O −136 U +106	3.5O −122 U −108
Tutu Atwell WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	31.5O −113 U −111	29.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −106 U −121	2.5O +102 U −136
Konata Mumpfield WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	28.5O −113 U −111	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +101 U −129	2.5O +112 U −148
Davis Allen TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	13.5O −112 U −112	13.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −167 U +130	1.5O −148 U +112
Arizona Cardinals
Tyler Allgeier RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	36.5O −112 U −112	37.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	10.5O −113 U −112	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	11.5O −106 U −119	10.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +107 U −136	2.5O +102 U −136
Bam Knight RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	–	23.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yards	–	5.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	–	1.5O +120 U −160
Trey McBride TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	57.5O −113 U −111	59.5O −114 U −114
ReceptionsLines differ	7.5O +111 U −141	6.5O −158 U +118
Reggie Virgil WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	24.5O −111 U −113	26.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +115 U −146	2.5O −102 U −130
Elijah Higgins TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	15.5O −109 U −115	16.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +135 U −173	2.5O +120 U −160
Simi Fehoko WR
Receiving yards	12.5O −110 U −114	–
Receptions	1.5O +117 U −150	–
Not matched to a stored player on either team
Carson Beck no stored games under this name yet
Pass yardsLines differ	178.5O −111 U −113	175.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	0.5O −148 U +116	0.5O −160 U +120
Completions	18.5O −126 U −101	–
Pass attempts	32.5O −101 U −126	–
Interceptions	0.5O −187 U +146	–
Rush yards	11.5O −117 U −108	11.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	3.5O −106 U −120	–
Zonovan Knight no stored games under this name yet
Rush yards	25.5O −113 U −111	–
Receiving yards	6.5O −117 U −107	–
Receptions	1.5O +121 U −155	–

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge LAR · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality LAR · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked Game · Sunday late window (4 PM ET) · checked, no clear difference

SEA at LV

Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM ET · Allegiant Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	SEA −6.5 −112LV +6.5 −108	SEA −6.5 −105LV +6.5 −115
Total	O 40.5 −112U 40.5 −108	O 40.5 −110U 40.5 −110
Moneyline	SEA −298LV +240	SEA −290LV +235

Player props · 16 players · 46 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Seattle Seahawks
Drew Lock QB · all hit rates →
Pass yards	203.5O −112 U −112	203.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +118 U −151	1.5O +118 U −158
Completions	19.5O −114 U −112	–
Pass attempts	28.5O −121 U −106	–
Interceptions	0.5O +101 U −129	–
Rush yardsLines differ	6.5O −105 U −120	5.5O −114 U −114
Zach Charbonnet RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	63.5O −111 U −113	60.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	14.5O −103 U −124	–
Receiving yards	9.5O −110 U −114	9.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −147 U +116	1.5O −152 U +114
Jadarian Price RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	42.5O −112 U −112	42.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	10.5O −122 U −104	–
Receiving yards	9.5O −113 U −111	9.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −140 U +109	1.5O −154 U +116
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	87.5O −113 U −111	89.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	7.5O +112 U −143	7.5O +106 U −140
AJ Barner TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	20.5O −115 U −109	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −127 U −101	2.5O −132 U +100
Cooper Kupp WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	20.5O −111 U −113	19.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +125 U −160	2.5O +124 U −166
Rashid Shaheed WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	17.5O −112 U −112	18.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −175 U +137	1.5O −188 U +140
Tory Horton WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	7.5O −116 U −108	7.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	0.5O −233 U +180	0.5O −225 U +164
Las Vegas Raiders
Fernando Mendoza QB
Pass yardsLines differ	180.5O −113 U −111	179.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	0.5O −246 U +189	0.5O −250 U +182
Completions	17.5O −118 U −108	–
Pass attempts	30.5O −120 U −106	–
Interceptions	0.5O −156 U +122	–
Rush yards	12.5O −116 U −108	12.5O −114 U −114
Ashton Jeanty RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	34.5O −116 U −108	33.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	10.5O −111 U −114	–
Receiving yards	25.5O −112 U −112	25.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +117 U −150	4.5O +118 U −158
Mike Washington Jr. RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	25.5O −109 U −115	26.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	8.5O −110 U −116	–
Brock Bowers TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	59.5O −111 U −113	58.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O −102 U −125	5.5O −102 U −130
Tre Tucker WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	25.5O −115 U −110	26.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +109 U −139	2.5O +110 U −146
Michael Mayer TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	21.5O −114 U −110	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −131 U +103	2.5O −140 U +106
Jalen Nailor WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	12.5O −108 U −116	12.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +111 U −141	1.5O +108 U −144
Jack Bech WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	5.5O −116 U −108	4.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	0.5O −200 U +156	0.5O −188 U +140

Spots from history

No measured edge from the models for this game.
Also checked, not edges (2)
- Explained by quality LV · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked Game · Sunday late window (4 PM ET) · checked, no clear difference

SF at DAL

Sun Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
SpreadBooks differ	SF −3.5 −115DAL +3.5 −105	SF −4.5 +100DAL +4.5 −120
Total	O 55.5 −118U 55.5 −102	O 55.5 −115U 55.5 −105
Moneyline	SF −205DAL +170	SF −210DAL +176

Player props · 9 players · 33 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	254.5O −112 U −112	256.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −221 U +171	1.5O −220 U +162
Completions	21.5O −113 U −113	–
Pass attempts	31.5O −106 U −120	–
Interceptions	0.5O +104 U −133	–
Rush yardsLines differ	19.5O −115 U −109	18.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	4.5O +124 U −158	–
Christian McCaffrey RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	61.5O −109 U −115	62.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	14.5O −104 U −123	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	31.5O −112 U −112	33.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +105 U −133	4.5O +102 U −136
Kaelon Black RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	34.5O −111 U −113	33.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	7.5O −141 U +110	–
Deebo Samuel WR · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	5.5O −110 U −114	6.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yardsLines differ	36.5O −111 U −113	35.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	3.5O +109 U −139	3.5O +116 U −154
George Kittle TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	62.5O −114 U −110	62.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O +115 U −147	5.5O +118 U −158
Demarcus Robinson WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	28.5O −110 U −114	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +126 U −161	2.5O +116 U −154
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	266.5O −111 U −113	268.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −196 U +152	1.5O −188 U +140
Completions	24.5O +101 U −128	–
Pass attempts	36.5O −118 U −108	–
Interceptions	0.5O −110 U −116	–
Rush yards	9.5O −107 U −117	9.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	2.5O −120 U −106	–
Javonte Williams RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	62.5O −111 U −113	64.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	16.5O −128 U +101	–
Receiving yards	13.5O −109 U −115	13.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −143 U +112	2.5O −130 U −102
CeeDee Lamb WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	87.5O −113 U −111	90.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	7.5O +107 U −137	7.5O +102 U −136

Spots from history

Edge SF · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Also checked, not edges (1)
- Myth checked Game · Sunday late window (4 PM ET) · checked, no clear difference

PIT at CIN

Sun Nov 15, 8:20 PM ET · Paycor Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	PIT +3.5 −110CIN −3.5 −110	PIT +3.5 −110CIN −3.5 −110
Total	O 49.5 −108U 49.5 −112	O 49.5 −110U 49.5 −110
Moneyline	PIT +150CIN −180	PIT +156CIN −186

Player props · 14 players · 44 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	239.5O −113 U −111	240.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O −114 U −112	1.5O −108 U −122
Completions	21.5O −116 U −110	–
Pass attempts	35.5O −106 U −120	–
Interceptions	0.5O −109 U −117	–
Rush yards	0.5O −111 U −113	0.5O −108 U −120
Jaylen Warren RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	64.5O −113 U −111	64.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	13.5O −108 U −118	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	24.5O −116 U −108	25.5O −114 U −114
ReceptionsLines differ	3.5O +128 U −164	2.5O −172 U +128
Rico Dowdle RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	31.5O −113 U −111	31.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	7.5O −105 U −122	–
Receiving yards	13.5O −114 U −110	13.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +119 U −152	2.5O +122 U −162
DK Metcalf WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	51.5O −113 U −111	49.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +113 U −144	4.5O +112 U −148
Germie Bernard WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	50.5O −110 U −114	51.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O −118 U −108	4.5O −122 U −108
Darnell Washington TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	28.5O −112 U −112	28.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −116 U −110	2.5O −102 U −130
Pat Freiermuth TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	28.5O −111 U −113	27.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −169 U +132	2.5O −168 U +126
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	290.5O −111 U −113	289.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	2.5O +153 U −197	2.5O +172 U −235
Completions	26.5O −124 U −103	–
Pass attempts	37.5O −120 U −106	–
Interceptions	0.5O −111 U −115	–
Rush yards	6.5O −117 U −108	6.5O −114 U −114
Chase Brown RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	46.5O −111 U −113	46.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	11.5O −113 U −113	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	26.5O −110 U −114	23.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	4.5O +102 U −130	4.5O +106 U −140
Samaje Perine RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	18.5O −114 U −110	17.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	5.5O −142 U +112	–
Receiving yards	4.5O −122 U −103	4.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +174 U −225	1.5O +182 U −250
Ja'Marr Chase WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	92.5O −110 U −114	89.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	7.5O −125 U −102	7.5O −114 U −114
Tee Higgins WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	75.5O −110 U −114	76.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O −113 U −113	5.5O −120 U −110
Mike Gesicki TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yardsLines differ	22.5O −112 U −112	23.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +105 U −134	2.5O +116 U −154
Dohnte Meyers WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	19.5O −112 U −112	19.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +106 U −135	2.5O +108 U −144

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge PIT · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Edge PIT · Off a bye (13+ days) · Win rate 58.9% vs 49.2% (n=231); RB 70+ rush yds 37.0% vs 29.2% (n=316)
Edge CIN · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Edge CIN · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Also checked, not edges (7)
- Explained by quality Game · Night kickoff (7 PM ET+) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality Game · Prime time / intl · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality PIT · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality CIN · Facing a team off a bye · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality CIN · On a 3+ game winning streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked Game · Sunday Night · checked, no clear difference
- Myth checked CIN · Game after an international trip · checked, no clear difference

LAC at BAL

Mon Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
Spread	LAC +4.5 −112BAL −4.5 −108	LAC +4.5 −110BAL −4.5 −110
Total	O 38.5 −110U 38.5 −110	O 38.5 −115U 38.5 −105
Moneyline	LAC +190BAL −230	LAC +188BAL −220

Player props · 12 players · 42 lines

Market	DraftKings	FanDuel
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert QB · all hit rates →
Pass yardsLines differ	205.5O −112 U −112	203.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	0.5O −259 U +199	0.5O −260 U +188
Completions	19.5O −109 U −117	–
Pass attempts	30.5O −119 U −107	–
Interceptions	0.5O −159 U +124	–
Rush yards	20.5O −115 U −109	20.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	4.5O −146 U +114	–
Omarion Hampton RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	33.5O −108 U −116	31.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	10.5O −121 U −105	–
Receiving yards	4.5O −108 U −116	4.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +161 U −208	1.5O +154 U −210
Kimani Vidal RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	18.5O −112 U −112	18.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	7.5O +113 U −145	–
Receiving yardsLines differ	9.5O −113 U −111	8.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O −143 U +112	1.5O −148 U +112
Keaton Mitchell RB · all hit rates →
Rush yardsLines differ	9.5O −115 U −110	11.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yardsLines differ	11.5O −110 U −114	10.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +119 U −152	2.5O +116 U −154
Baltimore Ravens
Derrick Henry RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	76.5O −113 U −111	76.5O −114 U −114
Rush attempts	18.5O −120 U −106	–
Receiving yards	5.5O −115 U −109	5.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	1.5O +166 U −214	1.5O +154 U −210
Justice Hill RB · all hit rates →
Rush yards	12.5O −113 U −111	12.5O −114 U −114
Receiving yardsLines differ	12.5O −107 U −117	11.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +124 U −158	2.5O +130 U −174
Zay Flowers WR · all hit rates →
Rush yards	3.5O −103 U −121	3.5O −108 U −120
Receiving yardsLines differ	67.5O −114 U −110	69.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	5.5O −117 U −109	5.5O −130 U −102
Rashod Bateman WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	23.5O −109 U −115	23.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O +145 U −186	2.5O +136 U −182
Mark Andrews TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	21.5O −111 U −113	21.5O −114 U −114
Receptions	2.5O −128 U +100	2.5O −148 U +112
Ja'Kobi Lane WR · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	19.5O −113 U −111	19.5O −114 U −114
ReceptionsLines differ	1.5O −195 U +152	2.5O +148 U −200
Josh Cuevas TE · all hit rates →
Receiving yards	7.5O −108 U −117	7.5O −108 U −120
ReceptionsLines differ	1.5O +173 U −224	0.5O −240 U +174
Not matched to a stored player on either team
Jacoby Brissett listed in this game by the book; his last stored team is ARI, so no hit-rate link
Pass yards	214.5O −111 U −113	214.5O −114 U −114
Pass TDs	1.5O +150 U −193	1.5O +142 U −192
Completions	19.5O −106 U −120	–
Pass attempts	30.5O −112 U −114	–
Interceptions	0.5O −117 U −108	–
Rush yards	5.5O −116 U −108	5.5O −114 U −114

Spots from history

No measured edge from the models for this game.
Also checked, not edges (7)
- Explained by quality Game · Night kickoff (7 PM ET+) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality Game · Prime time / intl · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality LAC · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality LAC · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality BAL · After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality BAL · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked Game · Monday Night · checked, no clear difference

Thursday Night, Nov 19, 2026 · 1 game

IND at HOU

Thu Nov 19, 8:15 PM ET · Reliant Stadium

Current lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET
	DraftKings	FanDuel
SpreadBooks differ	IND +10 −110HOU −10 −110	IND +9.5 −105HOU −9.5 −115
TotalBooks differ	O 44.5 −110U 44.5 −110	O 43.5 +100U 43.5 −120
Moneyline	IND +350HOU −455	IND +410HOU −550

Player props not posted yet.

Spots from history

Edge Game · Division game · QB 250+ pass yds 35.3% vs 39.9% (n=1,323)
Edge HOU · After a blowout win (letdown spot) · QB 250+ pass yds 47.7% vs 37.0% (n=472); QB 200+ pass yds 73.3% vs 62.3% (n=472)
Edge HOU · Revenge: lost the last meeting · QB 200+ pass yds 58.0% vs 66.4% (n=835)
Also checked, not edges (4)
- Explained by quality Game · Night kickoff (7 PM ET+) · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality Game · Prime time / intl · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Explained by quality IND · On a 3+ game losing streak · raw gap explained by team or player quality
- Myth checked Game · Thursday (not Thanksgiving) · checked, no clear difference

All NFL edges · all time

These tables use every stored season (2020–2026, through 2026-11-09). To recompute the NFL findings for a shorter window, open Findings: This season · Last season · Last 5 seasons · Last 10 seasons · Last 20 seasons.

Spot	Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Off a bye (13+ days)	Win rate	58.9%	49.2%	+9.7 pp	231	Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Off a bye (13+ days)	RB 70+ rush yds	37.0%	29.2%	+7.9 pp	316	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 37.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Adjusted: +8.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Off a bye (13+ days)	RB 50+ rush yds	56.6%	49.5%	+7.2 pp	316	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.6% of games, vs 49.5%. Adjusted: +7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Off a bye (13+ days)	Avg margin	2.3	-0.2	+2.5	231	Average margin +2.3 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +1.5 vs expectation for team strength.
Dome / closed roof	Avg combined points	47.2	44.1	+3.1	445	Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
Dome / closed roof	WR/TE 40+ rec yds	41.3%	37.0%	+4.3 pp	4,416	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.3% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Dome / closed roof	WR/TE avg rec yds	40.4	36.6	+3.8	4,416	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.4 rec yds, vs 36.6. Adjusted: +1.9 vs each player’s own norm.
Rain	Avg combined points	42.4	44.7	−2.3	245	Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
Rain	QB 225+ pass yds	41.6%	47.7%	−6.1 pp	502	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.6% of games, vs 47.7%. Adjusted: −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rain	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	26.3%	28.6%	−2.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.3% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Late-and-close (4th qtr/OT, within 8)	Completion rate (pass plays)	57.5%	60.5%	−3.0 pp	7,120	Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.
Wind 15+ mph	QB 200+ pass yds	40.3%	62.0%	−21.7 pp	181	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	QB 225+ pass yds	30.4%	47.8%	−17.4 pp	181	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −17.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	QB 2+ pass TD	31.5%	40.6%	−9.1 pp	181	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.5% of games, vs 40.6%. Adjusted: −12.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	QB 250+ pass yds	24.3%	35.0%	−10.7 pp	181	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 24.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Adjusted: −11.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	WR/TE 40+ rec yds	30.8%	37.6%	−6.8 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.8% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −6.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	22.3%	28.5%	−6.2 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.3% of games, vs 28.5%. Adjusted: −6.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	WR/TE 70+ rec yds	12.5%	15.5%	−3.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 15.5%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	QB avg pass yds	192.8	221.0	−28.2	181	QBs averaged 192.8 pass yds, vs 221.0. Adjusted: −28.6 vs each player’s own norm.
Wind 15+ mph	WR/TE avg rec yds	32.6	36.9	−4.3	873	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 32.6 rec yds, vs 36.9. Adjusted: −4.3 vs each player’s own norm.
Season opener	RB 70+ rush yds	24.0%	29.8%	−5.8 pp	317	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Revenge: blown out in the last meeting	RB 1+ TD	32.2%	40.1%	−7.9 pp	286	RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Revenge: lost the last meeting	QB 200+ pass yds	58.0%	66.4%	−8.4 pp	835	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	QB 250+ pass yds	47.7%	37.0%	+10.7 pp	472	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	QB 200+ pass yds	73.3%	62.3%	+11.0 pp	472	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 73.3% of games, vs 62.3%. Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	WR/TE 40+ rec yds	43.0%	38.7%	+4.3 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 43.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Adjusted: +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	33.2%	29.3%	+4.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.2% of games, vs 29.3%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
After a blowout win (letdown spot)	QB avg pass yds	243.5	223.9	+19.6	472	QBs averaged 243.5 pass yds, vs 223.9. Adjusted: +8.0 vs each player’s own norm.
First game back after missing games (any reason)	WR/TE 40+ rec yds	29.1%	48.7%	−19.6 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 48.7%. Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
First game back after missing games (any reason)	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	21.7%	37.8%	−16.2 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.7% of games, vs 37.8%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
First game back after missing games (any reason)	QB avg pass yds	195.3	234.8	−39.5	148	QBs averaged 195.3 pass yds, vs 234.8. Adjusted: −16.2 vs each player’s own norm.
First game back after missing games (any reason)	WR/TE avg rec yds	30.8	45.8	−15.0	808	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 30.8 rec yds, vs 45.8. Adjusted: −3.2 vs each player’s own norm.
Heat (85F+)	WR/TE 40+ rec yds	32.9%	37.3%	−4.4 pp	493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Division game	QB 250+ pass yds	35.3%	39.9%	−4.6 pp	1,323	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rain or snow (wet field)	WR/TE 50+ rec yds	26.5%	28.6%	−2.1 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Rain or snow (wet field)	WR/TE avg rec yds	35.1	37.1	−2.0	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.1 rec yds, vs 37.1. Adjusted: −1.9 vs each player’s own norm.
Season finale (regular season)	QB avg pass yds	204.0	227.1	−23.1	204	QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Myths checked

Explained by quality

A raw gap exists, but it’s about who is playing, not the spot.

After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot) · Win rate: 42.4% vs 50.9%, n=432
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game · RB 70+ rush yds: 23.6% vs 32.9%, n=921
Bounce-back after missing the line · WR/TE 1+ TD: 21.1% vs 28.4%, n=13,155
Cold (<32F) · WR/TE 70+ rec yds: 12.4% vs 15.5%, n=707
Division rematch (2nd meeting) · QB 225+ pass yds: 45.4% vs 51.8%, n=617
Facing a former team · WR/TE 70+ rec yds: 9.6% vs 14.6%, n=229
Facing a team off a bye · WR/TE 50+ rec yds: 27.0% vs 29.9%, n=953
First game with a new team · WR/TE 70+ rec yds: 7.8% vs 16.9%, n=344
Night kickoff (7 PM ET+) · QB 200+ pass yds: 67.6% vs 62.7%, n=793
On a 3+ game losing streak · Win rate: 36.4% vs 52.3%, n=462
On a 3+ game winning streak · Win rate: 61.0% vs 47.4%, n=541
Playoffs (any round) · QB 250+ pass yds: 54.1% vs 37.7%, n=157
Prime time / intl · QB 200+ pass yds: 67.3% vs 62.6%, n=897
Saturday game · RB 50+ rush yds: 56.9% vs 49.3%, n=197
Sunday early window (1 PM ET) · QB 225+ pass yds: 48.5% vs 52.8%, n=1,820
West Coast team, early road game in Eastern time · WR/TE 50+ rec yds: 34.9% vs 28.8%, n=439

No clear difference

The rate in the spot isn’t clearly different from the baseline.

Birthday week (+/-3 days) · WR/TE 1+ TD: 21.7% vs 23.6%, n=286
First meeting vs a former team · WR/TE 40+ rec yds: 30.3% vs 36.1%, n=145
Game after an international trip · WR/TE 40+ rec yds: 38.1% vs 39.3%, n=315
Game after overtime · Win rate: 47.6% vs 50.0%, n=206
Homecoming: road game in birth state · WR/TE 50+ rec yds: 31.9% vs 31.1%, n=301
International game · WR/TE 70+ rec yds: 17.0% vs 16.5%, n=317
Monday Night · QB 2+ pass TD: 38.7% vs 43.7%, n=271
Short week (5 or fewer days) · QB 250+ pass yds: 43.4% vs 38.1%, n=242
Snow · WR/TE 70+ rec yds: 11.6% vs 15.4%, n=354
Sunday Night · QB 225+ pass yds: 52.0% vs 50.7%, n=252
Sunday late window (4 PM ET) · Avg combined points: 46.5 vs 45.7, n=452
Thursday (not Thanksgiving) · RB 1+ TD: 46.6% vs 39.5%, n=268

Not enough data yet (computed, not published): Birthday game, Christmas Day, First career playoff game, First game after a midseason move, Rookie in a playoff game, Thanksgiving Day.