NFL · All time: Explained by quality

Division rematch (2nd meeting)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 45.4%
Baseline: 51.8%
Sample: 617 player-games
Adjusted: −3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 617 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.4%	51.8%	−6.4 pp	617	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.2%	39.3%	−6.1 pp	617	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.2% of games, vs 39.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	57.9%	64.9%	−7.0 pp	617	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 57.9% of games, vs 64.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	215.6	228.7	−13.1	617	QBs averaged 215.6 pass yds, vs 228.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.7	45.9	−0.2	292	Games averaged 45.7 combined points, vs 45.9. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	46.7%	50.2%	−3.5 pp	823	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.7% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.4%	40.2%	−1.8 pp	823	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.4% of games, vs 40.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	41.5%	43.7%	−2.2 pp	617	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.5% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.4%	12.2%	+1.2 pp	823	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.4% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.4%	22.4%	+0.0 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.5%	53.0%	+2.5 pp	292	Home teams won 55.5%, vs 53.0%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.8%	6.3%	−1.5 pp	292	4.8% of games went to overtime, vs 6.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.4%	16.8%	−1.3 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.4% of games, vs 16.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.8%	39.5%	−1.7 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.8% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.3%	29.5%	−1.2 pp	823	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.3% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	30.0%	−1.6 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.1	55.6	+0.5	823	RBs averaged 56.1 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.6	38.6	−1.0	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.6 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=4 from 4 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Sample in this window: 4 games
Floor to publish: 200+ games

See all 4 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 18 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	4	Too small to publish in this window: n=4 from 4 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	8	Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	4	Too small to publish in this window: n=4 from 4 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	12	Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	12	Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	8	Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	8	Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	12	Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	12	Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	8	Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	4	Too small to publish in this window: n=4 from 4 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	8	Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	12	Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 4 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 42.7% of games, vs 62.2%. Adjusted: −15.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 42.7%
Baseline: 62.2%
Sample: 103 player-games
Adjusted: −15.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 103 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	42.7%	62.2%	−19.5 pp	103	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 42.7% of games, vs 62.2%. Adjusted: −15.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	196.6	220.8	−24.2	103	QBs averaged 196.6 pass yds, vs 220.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−12.8 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 13 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	36.9%	48.3%	−11.5 pp	103	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 36.9% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	35.0%	45.0%	−10.1 pp	103	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 35.0% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	29.1%	37.0%	−7.9 pp	103	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.1% of games, vs 37.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	31.9%	28.7%	+3.2 pp	141	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 31.9% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	33.3%	40.3%	−7.0 pp	141	RBs reached 1+ TD in 33.3% of games, vs 40.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	51.1%	49.2%	+1.9 pp	141	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.1% of games, vs 49.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	11.5%	15.0%	−3.5 pp	496	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.5% of games, vs 15.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.2%	22.4%	−3.2 pp	496	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	31.5%	36.5%	−5.0 pp	496	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 31.5% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.8%	26.9%	−4.1 pp	496	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.8% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.8%	11.8%	+1.0 pp	141	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 11.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.7	55.6	+0.1	141	RBs averaged 55.7 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.6	36.5	−2.8	496	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.6 rec yds, vs 36.5. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.7% of games, vs 49.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 42.7%
Baseline: 49.6%
Sample: 412 player-games
Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 412 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.7%	49.6%	−6.9 pp	412	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.7% of games, vs 49.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	54.9%	63.4%	−8.6 pp	412	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 54.9% of games, vs 63.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.3%	37.1%	−5.8 pp	412	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.3% of games, vs 37.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	35.5%	40.2%	−4.7 pp	561	RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.5% of games, vs 40.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.7%	38.8%	−3.1 pp	1,982	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.7% of games, vs 38.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.3%	16.5%	−2.2 pp	1,982	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.3% of games, vs 16.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.0%	29.4%	−2.4 pp	1,982	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	211.0	224.8	−13.8	412	QBs averaged 211.0 pass yds, vs 224.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	46.7%	49.8%	−3.1 pp	561	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.7% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	14.3%	12.3%	+2.0 pp	561	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 14.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.8%	41.5%	−1.7 pp	412	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.8% of games, vs 41.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.8%	21.7%	+0.1 pp	1,982	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.8% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.3%	30.0%	−1.7 pp	561	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.3% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.8	55.7	+0.2	561	RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.4	38.0	−1.6	1,982	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.4 rec yds, vs 38.0. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	196	Too small to publish in this window: n=196 from 196 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	196	Too small to publish in this window: n=196 from 196 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	196	Too small to publish in this window: n=196 from 196 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 45.4%
Baseline: 51.8%
Sample: 617 player-games
Adjusted: −3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 617 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.4%	51.8%	−6.4 pp	617	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.2%	39.3%	−6.1 pp	617	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.2% of games, vs 39.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	57.9%	64.9%	−7.0 pp	617	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 57.9% of games, vs 64.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	215.6	228.7	−13.1	617	QBs averaged 215.6 pass yds, vs 228.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.7	45.9	−0.2	292	Games averaged 45.7 combined points, vs 45.9. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	46.7%	50.2%	−3.5 pp	823	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.7% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.4%	40.2%	−1.8 pp	823	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.4% of games, vs 40.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	41.5%	43.7%	−2.2 pp	617	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.5% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.4%	12.2%	+1.2 pp	823	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.4% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.4%	22.4%	+0.0 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.5%	53.0%	+2.5 pp	292	Home teams won 55.5%, vs 53.0%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.8%	6.3%	−1.5 pp	292	4.8% of games went to overtime, vs 6.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.4%	16.8%	−1.3 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.4% of games, vs 16.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.8%	39.5%	−1.7 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.8% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.3%	29.5%	−1.2 pp	823	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.3% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	30.0%	−1.6 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.1	55.6	+0.5	823	RBs averaged 56.1 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.6	38.6	−1.0	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.6 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 45.4%
Baseline: 51.8%
Sample: 617 player-games
Adjusted: −3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 617 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.4%	51.8%	−6.4 pp	617	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.2%	39.3%	−6.1 pp	617	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.2% of games, vs 39.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	57.9%	64.9%	−7.0 pp	617	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 57.9% of games, vs 64.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	215.6	228.7	−13.1	617	QBs averaged 215.6 pass yds, vs 228.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.7	45.9	−0.2	292	Games averaged 45.7 combined points, vs 45.9. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	46.7%	50.2%	−3.5 pp	823	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.7% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.4%	40.2%	−1.8 pp	823	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.4% of games, vs 40.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	41.5%	43.7%	−2.2 pp	617	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.5% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.4%	12.2%	+1.2 pp	823	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.4% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.4%	22.4%	+0.0 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.5%	53.0%	+2.5 pp	292	Home teams won 55.5%, vs 53.0%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.8%	6.3%	−1.5 pp	292	4.8% of games went to overtime, vs 6.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.4%	16.8%	−1.3 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.4% of games, vs 16.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.8%	39.5%	−1.7 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.8% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.3%	29.5%	−1.2 pp	823	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.3% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	30.0%	−1.6 pp	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.1	55.6	+0.5	823	RBs averaged 56.1 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.6	38.6	−1.0	2,952	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.6 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Second regular-season meeting of division rivals in the same season
Baseline: All other NFL games
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.