Big Bettors · X accounts, graded
Big Bettors
We took picks big betting accounts posted on X, kept the ones still public and written in the post before the game started, and checked each against the final score. These are records we graded, not the records the accounts advertise.
Read this first.
- Only picks still public on X, written in the post before the game, checked against the final score. After-the-fact “cash” / ✅ recaps were not counted.
- Accounts can delete losing picks. A public record can look better than the truth, and nothing here can detect deletions.
- 30 days only (Oct 14 – Nov 13, 2026, ET). A snapshot, not a career track record.
- Break-even for a straight at −110 is 52.4%. These samples are too small to tell skill from luck.
- Straights and parlays are always counted separately. We found almost no parlays with every leg written out (0–4 across all accounts).
- Historical graded records, not advice and not picks to follow. Picks were graded against the line written in the post.
Ranking · accounts with 20+ graded straights, by straight win %
- 1#161.4%straights won
@BaneSquad_ BaneSquad
Straights 51–32 (83 graded straights) · Parlays 0–0 (none graded)
First on win % in this window, not proof of skill. 83 graded straights is a small sample.
64 after-the-fact result or “cashed” recap posts in the window. Not counted.
What we could grade: Kalshi/DFS prop lists; each list item graded on its own; many live bets (ungraded).
Units, only on picks that stated odds: +1.40u on 1 pick.
- 2#253.6%straights won
@pardonmypick PardonMyPick X ChaChing
Straights 15–13 (28 graded straights) · Parlays 0–0 (none graded)
55 after-the-fact result or “cashed” recap posts in the window. Not counted.
What we could grade: pre-game FREEPLAY/TAILING posts graded; VIP plays only shown after they won are not counted.
Units, only on picks that stated odds: +0.05u on 28 picks.
- 3#351.2%straights won
@LearnToToad Toad
Straights 42–40 (82 graded straights) · Parlays 0–0 (none graded)
5 after-the-fact result or “cashed” recap posts in the window. Not counted.
What we could grade: labels "BEST BET" vs "lean"; only best bets graded.
Units, only on picks that stated odds: −1.16u on 15 picks.
- 4#450.3%straights won
@FrieserBurnBets AJ Fries (Freeze)
Straights 84–83–1 (168 graded straights) · Parlays 0–0 (none graded)
Largest sample here: 168 graded straights, and it’s about even.
30 after-the-fact result or “cashed” recap posts in the window. Not counted.
What we could grade: daily "Card" posts with every play listed in text.
Units, only on picks that stated odds: −5.16u on 168 picks.
- 5#547.6%straights won
@TheSharpPlays The Sharp Plays
Straights 10–11 (21 graded straights) · Parlays 0–0 (none graded)
25 after-the-fact result or “cashed” recap posts in the window. Not counted.
What we could grade: free plays in text graded; some free plays image-only.
Units, only on picks that stated odds: +4.06u on 15 picks.
Win % = straight wins ÷ (wins + losses); pushes are never wins and are left out of the %. Followers as reported by X on Nov 13, 2026, 12:07 AM EST.
Small samples · not ranked: too few graded picks
Fewer than 20 graded straights in the window, listed by number of graded picks. Any percentage here is mostly noise.
| Account | Followers | Straights | Parlays | Not gradeable | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| @Pickswise | 305,084 | 6–4 (60.0%) | 0–3 | 5 | Picks → |
| @PropBetGuy | 86,777 | 3–3 (50.0%) | 0–0 | 1 | Picks → |
| @JoeFortenbaugh | 48,637 | 2–2 (50.0%) | 0–0 | 4 | Picks → |
| @ToddFuhrman | 169,316 | 0–4 (0.0%) | 0–0 | 1 | Picks → |
| @NCAAFNation247 | 119,161 | 1–1 (50.0%) | 0–0 | 12 | Picks → |
| @wheatonbrando | 21,141 | 0–0 | 0–1 | 2 | Picks → |
Big accounts we couldn’t grade · no gradeable picks in the window
Large followings, but no pick written in a post we could check: picks behind paywalls or links, in images or videos, slips with missing legs, or no picks at all. No record is shown because there isn’t one to show.
| Account | Followers | Why there’s no record |
|---|---|---|
| @SharpFootball | 433,899 | Stats/analysis and links to paid picks; no pick stated in post text. 78 posts in the window. |
| @rahsh33m | 332,404 | Promotes another account's paid picks; no own picks. 24 posts in the window; 3 after-the-fact recaps, not counted. |
| @kellyinvegas | 242,680 | Picks in videos/links (WagerTalk, Hard Rock); one ambiguous "A&M moneyline" post; after-the-fact ✅ recaps. 32 posts in the window; 1 after-the-fact recap, not counted. |
| @StuartFeiner | 239,333 | Sells picks; text has only after-the-fact "winning" recaps and a Knicks futures bet (unsettled). 103 posts in the window; 8 after-the-fact recaps, not counted. |
| @RJinVegas | 170,119 | No original posts in window. 0 posts in the window. |
| @philsteele042 | 146,411 | Magazine/promos; no picks in post text. 75 posts in the window; 1 after-the-fact recap, not counted. |
| @PlusEV | 109,894 | DFS slips/parlays with only 1-2 legs in text (full slip in image/reply); none gradeable. 170 posts in the window; 1 after-the-fact recap, not counted. |
| @ChrisRaybon | 79,104 | No posts in window. 0 posts in the window. |
| @Jeff_Mans | 65,618 | Fantasy/podcast content; no betting picks in text. 21 posts in the window; 1 after-the-fact recap, not counted. |
| @spanky | 52,657 | No pick posts found in window. 10 posts in the window. |
| @SportsCheetah | 43,558 | No pick posts found in window. 28 posts in the window. |
| @OddsandPicks | 28,007 | Picks posted on paid "subs feed"; X only shows after-the-fact ✅/❌ recaps. 101 posts in the window; 19 after-the-fact recaps, not counted. |
| @BeerMoneyyPicks | 24,519 | Picks behind links/paywall; X shows after-the-fact "cashed" recaps. 22 posts in the window; 15 after-the-fact recaps, not counted. |
| @kylekirms | 21,141 | No pick posts found in window. 25 posts in the window; 1 after-the-fact recap, not counted. |
| @SteveMerril | 12,859 | Picks behind WagerTalk links; none in post text. 25 posts in the window. |
| @offshoreinsider | 12,716 | "SAL KENDER PICKS" posts; only pick in window is Nov 12 TNF (not yet in results data). 7 posts in the window; 1 after-the-fact recap, not counted. |
@kylekirms and @wheatonbrando both show 21,141 followers: that is what X reported for each. Not included on purpose: @ParlayHawk (7,937 followers, too small) and @br_betting (473,763 followers) and @ActionNetworkHQ (260,161) — media/news brands, not individual pickers.
How picks are graded: Methodology →