NFL · All time: Myth checked
Monday Night
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 38.7%
- Baseline
- 43.7%
- Sample
- 271 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 271 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 38.7% | 43.7% | −4.9 pp | 271 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.5% | 49.9% | −3.4 pp | 381 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.5% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 37.0% | 40.1% | −3.1 pp | 381 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.9% | 63.4% | +4.5 pp | 271 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.9% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 36.9% | 38.4% | −1.5 pp | 271 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.9% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.2% | 16.6% | −0.4 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.7% | 22.4% | −0.8 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.9% | 29.4% | −0.5 pp | 381 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.4% | 29.7% | +0.7 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.4% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.1% | 39.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.1% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.1% | 12.4% | −0.3 pp | 381 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.4% | 50.6% | +1.8 pp | 271 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.4% of games, vs 50.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.9 | 38.5 | −0.6 | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.9 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 228.8 | 226.4 | +2.4 | 271 | QBs averaged 228.8 pass yds, vs 226.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.2 | 55.8 | −0.6 | 381 | RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 25 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 25 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 92 | Too small to publish in this window: n=92 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 92 | Too small to publish in this window: n=92 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 92 | Too small to publish in this window: n=92 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 92 | Too small to publish in this window: n=92 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 92 | Too small to publish in this window: n=92 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 44 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 44 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 44 | Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 44 | Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 219 | Too small to publish in this window: n=219 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 44 | Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 219 | Too small to publish in this window: n=219 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 219 | Too small to publish in this window: n=219 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 44 | Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 219 | Too small to publish in this window: n=219 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 219 | Too small to publish in this window: n=219 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 44 | Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 22 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 32.3% of games, vs 41.9%. Adjusted: −12.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.3%
- Baseline
- 41.9%
- Sample
- 192 player-games
- Adjusted
- −12.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 192 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 32.3% | 41.9% | −9.6 pp | 192 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 32.3% of games, vs 41.9%. Adjusted: −12.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 31.9% | 29.6% | +2.2 pp | 270 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 31.9% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.7% | 12.5% | +1.2 pp | 270 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.7% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 34.4% | 36.3% | −2.0 pp | 192 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.4% of games, vs 36.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 41.1% | 39.3% | +1.8 pp | 270 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 47.4% | 49.5% | −2.1 pp | 270 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.4% of games, vs 49.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.2% | 21.9% | −1.6 pp | 945 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.2% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.7% | 61.7% | +4.9 pp | 192 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.7% of games, vs 61.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.6% | 16.2% | −0.7 pp | 945 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.6% of games, vs 16.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.3% | 29.0% | +0.3 pp | 945 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.3% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.0% | 38.3% | +0.8 pp | 945 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 50.5% | 48.4% | +2.1 pp | 192 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 50.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.3 | 55.6 | +1.8 | 270 | RBs averaged 57.3 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.2 | 37.8 | −0.6 | 945 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.2 rec yds, vs 37.8. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 225.1 | 222.4 | +2.7 | 192 | QBs averaged 225.1 pass yds, vs 222.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 38.7%
- Baseline
- 43.7%
- Sample
- 271 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 271 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 38.7% | 43.7% | −4.9 pp | 271 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.5% | 49.9% | −3.4 pp | 381 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.5% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 37.0% | 40.1% | −3.1 pp | 381 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.9% | 63.4% | +4.5 pp | 271 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.9% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 36.9% | 38.4% | −1.5 pp | 271 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.9% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.2% | 16.6% | −0.4 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.7% | 22.4% | −0.8 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.9% | 29.4% | −0.5 pp | 381 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.4% | 29.7% | +0.7 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.4% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.1% | 39.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.1% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.1% | 12.4% | −0.3 pp | 381 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.4% | 50.6% | +1.8 pp | 271 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.4% of games, vs 50.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.9 | 38.5 | −0.6 | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.9 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 228.8 | 226.4 | +2.4 | 271 | QBs averaged 228.8 pass yds, vs 226.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.2 | 55.8 | −0.6 | 381 | RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 38.7%
- Baseline
- 43.7%
- Sample
- 271 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 271 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 38.7% | 43.7% | −4.9 pp | 271 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.5% | 49.9% | −3.4 pp | 381 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.5% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 37.0% | 40.1% | −3.1 pp | 381 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.9% | 63.4% | +4.5 pp | 271 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.9% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 36.9% | 38.4% | −1.5 pp | 271 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.9% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.2% | 16.6% | −0.4 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.7% | 22.4% | −0.8 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.9% | 29.4% | −0.5 pp | 381 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.4% | 29.7% | +0.7 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.4% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.1% | 39.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.1% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.1% | 12.4% | −0.3 pp | 381 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.4% | 50.6% | +1.8 pp | 271 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.4% of games, vs 50.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.9 | 38.5 | −0.6 | 1,329 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.9 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 228.8 | 226.4 | +2.4 | 271 | QBs averaged 228.8 pass yds, vs 226.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.2 | 55.8 | −0.6 | 381 | RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.1 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Any Monday game (ET)
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.