NFL · All time: Explained by quality
Cold (<32F)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.4% of games, vs 15.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 12.4%
- Baseline
- 15.5%
- Sample
- 707 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 707 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 12.4% | 15.5% | −3.0 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.4% of games, vs 15.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 33.4 | 36.8 | −3.4 | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.4 rec yds, vs 36.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 13 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 30.4% | 34.3% | −3.9 pp | 135 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 34.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 59.3% | 60.1% | −0.8 pp | 135 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 59.3% of games, vs 60.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.0% | 12.9% | −1.9 pp | 200 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 46.7% | 46.2% | +0.5 pp | 135 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 46.7% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.5% | 38.5% | −4.0 pp | 200 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.5% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.9% | 39.3% | +6.6 pp | 135 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 47.5% | 48.4% | −0.9 pp | 200 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 25.3% | 28.2% | −2.9 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.3% of games, vs 28.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 35.6% | 37.1% | −1.5 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.6% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.0% | 29.2% | −0.2 pp | 200 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.5% | 21.1% | +0.4 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.5% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 212.4 | 218.9 | −6.5 | 135 | QBs averaged 212.4 pass yds, vs 218.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 55.3 | −1.3 | 200 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 55.3. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 34 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 34 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 57 | Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 57 | Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 57 | Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 180 | Too small to publish in this window: n=180 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 57 | Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 180 | Too small to publish in this window: n=180 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 180 | Too small to publish in this window: n=180 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 180 | Too small to publish in this window: n=180 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 180 | Too small to publish in this window: n=180 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 57 | Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.6 rec yds, vs 36.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 33.6
- Baseline
- 36.8
- Sample
- 584 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.0 vs each player’s own norm
See all 584 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 33.6 | 36.8 | −3.2 | 584 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.6 rec yds, vs 36.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 31.0% | 34.7% | −3.7 pp | 113 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.0% of games, vs 34.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.4% | 12.9% | −2.5 pp | 173 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.4% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.1% | 38.7% | −4.6 pp | 173 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.1% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 12.5% | 15.5% | −3.0 pp | 584 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 61.1% | 59.9% | +1.1 pp | 113 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.1% of games, vs 59.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.2% | 48.3% | −2.1 pp | 173 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.2% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.1% | 39.4% | +5.7 pp | 113 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.1% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 35.8% | 37.3% | −1.5 pp | 584 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.8% of games, vs 37.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.2% | 21.1% | +0.1 pp | 584 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.7% | 29.5% | −1.8 pp | 173 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.7% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 47.8% | 46.1% | +1.6 pp | 113 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 47.8% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 25.7% | 28.1% | −2.4 pp | 584 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.7% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 212.7 | 219.0 | −6.3 | 113 | QBs averaged 212.7 pass yds, vs 219.0. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.7 | 55.4 | −2.6 | 173 | RBs averaged 52.7 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.4% of games, vs 15.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 12.4%
- Baseline
- 15.5%
- Sample
- 707 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 707 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 12.4% | 15.5% | −3.0 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.4% of games, vs 15.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 33.4 | 36.8 | −3.4 | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.4 rec yds, vs 36.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 13 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 30.4% | 34.3% | −3.9 pp | 135 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 34.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 59.3% | 60.1% | −0.8 pp | 135 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 59.3% of games, vs 60.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.0% | 12.9% | −1.9 pp | 200 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 46.7% | 46.2% | +0.5 pp | 135 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 46.7% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.5% | 38.5% | −4.0 pp | 200 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.5% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.9% | 39.3% | +6.6 pp | 135 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 47.5% | 48.4% | −0.9 pp | 200 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 25.3% | 28.2% | −2.9 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.3% of games, vs 28.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 35.6% | 37.1% | −1.5 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.6% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.0% | 29.2% | −0.2 pp | 200 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.5% | 21.1% | +0.4 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.5% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 212.4 | 218.9 | −6.5 | 135 | QBs averaged 212.4 pass yds, vs 218.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 55.3 | −1.3 | 200 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 55.3. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.4% of games, vs 15.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 12.4%
- Baseline
- 15.5%
- Sample
- 707 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 707 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 12.4% | 15.5% | −3.0 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.4% of games, vs 15.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 33.4 | 36.8 | −3.4 | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.4 rec yds, vs 36.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 13 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 30.4% | 34.3% | −3.9 pp | 135 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 34.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 59.3% | 60.1% | −0.8 pp | 135 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 59.3% of games, vs 60.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.0% | 12.9% | −1.9 pp | 200 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 46.7% | 46.2% | +0.5 pp | 135 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 46.7% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.5% | 38.5% | −4.0 pp | 200 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.5% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.9% | 39.3% | +6.6 pp | 135 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 47.5% | 48.4% | −0.9 pp | 200 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 25.3% | 28.2% | −2.9 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.3% of games, vs 28.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 35.6% | 37.1% | −1.5 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.6% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.0% | 29.2% | −0.2 pp | 200 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.5% | 21.1% | +0.4 pp | 707 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.5% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 212.4 | 218.9 | −6.5 | 135 | QBs averaged 212.4 pass yds, vs 218.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 55.3 | −1.3 | 200 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 55.3. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(68 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Kickoff-window temperature below 32F. Weather and roof from a validated kickoff-weather record; outdoor games only
- Baseline
- Outdoor games 32F or warmer
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.