NFL · All time: Explained by quality

Bounce-back after missing the line

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 28.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 21.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 13,155 player-games
Adjusted: +7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 13,155 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.1%	28.4%	−7.3 pp	13,155	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 28.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	34.8%	46.7%	−11.9 pp	2,124	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.8% of games, vs 46.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.2%	58.2%	−13.0 pp	1,696	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.2% of games, vs 58.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.4%	51.0%	−11.6 pp	1,952	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.4% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	55.7%	70.1%	−14.4 pp	1,254	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 55.7% of games, vs 70.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	23.1%	47.7%	−24.5 pp	11,924	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 23.1% of games, vs 47.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.4%	45.8%	−9.4 pp	2,970	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.4% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.5%	34.6%	−21.1 pp	14,130	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.5% of games, vs 34.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.9%	25.1%	−14.2 pp	4,207	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.9% of games, vs 25.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	29.7%	56.0%	−26.3 pp	10,336	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 56.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.6%	43.7%	−19.1 pp	3,446	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.6% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	40.0%	61.7%	−21.7 pp	2,551	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 40.0% of games, vs 61.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.2% of games, vs 45.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+13.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 24.2%
Baseline: 45.7%
Sample: 835 player-games
Adjusted: +13.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 835 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	24.2%	45.7%	−21.5 pp	835	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.2% of games, vs 45.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+13.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.8%	29.0%	−8.2 pp	912	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.8% of games, vs 29.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+11.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	32.5%	51.2%	−18.7 pp	203	RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.5% of games, vs 51.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.9%	36.4%	−23.5 pp	987	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.9% of games, vs 36.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	28.9%	56.1%	−27.2 pp	730	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 28.9% of games, vs 56.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	22.7%	48.9%	−26.2 pp	242	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 22.7% of games, vs 48.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	36.1%	66.4%	−30.3 pp	180	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 36.1% of games, vs 66.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	33.3%	55.9%	−22.5 pp	132	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 33.3% of games, vs 55.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.7%	47.3%	−11.6 pp	143	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.7% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.8%	58.8%	−12.9 pp	120	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.8% of games, vs 58.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.2%	28.9%	−18.7 pp	294	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.2% of games, vs 28.9%. Not a clear difference.

Too small 1 measure

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 72 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.0% of games, vs 41.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 26.0%
Baseline: 41.3%
Sample: 566 player-games
Adjusted: +5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 566 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	26.0%	41.3%	−15.3 pp	566	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.0% of games, vs 41.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.6%	29.0%	−8.4 pp	2,085	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.6% of games, vs 29.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.7%	46.1%	−14.4 pp	350	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.7% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	27.1%	52.5%	−25.5 pp	1,711	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 27.1% of games, vs 52.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	20.2%	44.4%	−24.2 pp	1,971	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 20.2% of games, vs 44.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	11.6%	34.0%	−22.4 pp	2,284	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	39.7%	56.6%	−16.9 pp	292	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 39.7% of games, vs 56.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	49.3%	67.4%	−18.1 pp	225	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 67.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	39.0%	62.3%	−23.3 pp	415	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 39.0% of games, vs 62.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	43.5%	46.4%	−2.8 pp	308	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 43.5% of games, vs 46.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.4%	18.0%	−6.6 pp	695	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.4% of games, vs 18.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.2%	41.7%	−4.5 pp	494	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.2% of games, vs 41.7%. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.5% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 20.5%
Baseline: 28.0%
Sample: 9,171 player-games
Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 9,171 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.5%	28.0%	−7.5 pp	9,171	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.5% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	43.7%	56.7%	−13.0 pp	1,230	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.7% of games, vs 56.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	38.4%	47.9%	−9.5 pp	1,401	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.4% of games, vs 47.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	54.7%	68.7%	−14.0 pp	907	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 54.7% of games, vs 68.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	35.6%	45.8%	−10.2 pp	2,101	RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.6% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.0%	46.0%	−13.0 pp	1,523	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.0% of games, vs 46.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.3%	48.1%	−25.7 pp	8,321	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.3% of games, vs 48.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.2%	35.4%	−22.2 pp	9,811	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.2% of games, vs 35.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	28.8%	56.0%	−27.2 pp	7,231	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 28.8% of games, vs 56.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.0%	26.2%	−15.2 pp	2,948	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.0% of games, vs 26.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	25.0%	44.8%	−19.8 pp	2,402	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 25.0% of games, vs 44.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	39.3%	62.2%	−22.9 pp	1,792	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 39.3% of games, vs 62.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 28.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 21.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 13,155 player-games
Adjusted: +7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 13,155 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.1%	28.4%	−7.3 pp	13,155	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 28.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	34.8%	46.7%	−11.9 pp	2,124	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.8% of games, vs 46.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.2%	58.2%	−13.0 pp	1,696	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.2% of games, vs 58.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.4%	51.0%	−11.6 pp	1,952	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.4% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	55.7%	70.1%	−14.4 pp	1,254	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 55.7% of games, vs 70.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	23.1%	47.7%	−24.5 pp	11,924	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 23.1% of games, vs 47.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.4%	45.8%	−9.4 pp	2,970	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.4% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.5%	34.6%	−21.1 pp	14,130	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.5% of games, vs 34.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.9%	25.1%	−14.2 pp	4,207	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.9% of games, vs 25.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	29.7%	56.0%	−26.3 pp	10,336	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 56.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.6%	43.7%	−19.1 pp	3,446	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.6% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	40.0%	61.7%	−21.7 pp	2,551	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 40.0% of games, vs 61.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 28.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 21.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 13,155 player-games
Adjusted: +7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 13,155 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.1%	28.4%	−7.3 pp	13,155	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 28.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	34.8%	46.7%	−11.9 pp	2,124	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.8% of games, vs 46.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.2%	58.2%	−13.0 pp	1,696	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.2% of games, vs 58.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.4%	51.0%	−11.6 pp	1,952	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.4% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	55.7%	70.1%	−14.4 pp	1,254	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 55.7% of games, vs 70.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	23.1%	47.7%	−24.5 pp	11,924	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 23.1% of games, vs 47.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.4%	45.8%	−9.4 pp	2,970	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.4% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.5%	34.6%	−21.1 pp	14,130	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.5% of games, vs 34.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.9%	25.1%	−14.2 pp	4,207	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.9% of games, vs 25.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	29.7%	56.0%	−26.3 pp	10,336	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 56.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.6%	43.7%	−19.1 pp	3,446	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.6% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	40.0%	61.7%	−21.7 pp	2,551	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 40.0% of games, vs 61.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(1.7 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) under the same line (value < X); next-game X+ rate
Baseline: Same players after a game that hit the line
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.