NFL · All time: Myth checked

Snow

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 11.6%
Baseline: 15.4%
Sample: 354 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 354 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	11.6%	15.4%	−3.8 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	18.9%	21.2%	−2.3 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 18.9% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.9%	37.1%	−1.2 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.1%	28.0%	−0.9 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.1% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.1	36.7	−3.6	354	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.1 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).

Sample in this window: 0 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=106 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 106 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 106 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	106	Too small to publish in this window: n=106 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	106	Too small to publish in this window: n=106 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	106	Too small to publish in this window: n=106 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	106	Too small to publish in this window: n=106 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	106	Too small to publish in this window: n=106 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=271 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 271 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 271 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	271	Too small to publish in this window: n=271 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	271	Too small to publish in this window: n=271 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	271	Too small to publish in this window: n=271 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	271	Too small to publish in this window: n=271 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	271	Too small to publish in this window: n=271 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 11.6%
Baseline: 15.4%
Sample: 354 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 354 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	11.6%	15.4%	−3.8 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	18.9%	21.2%	−2.3 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 18.9% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.9%	37.1%	−1.2 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.1%	28.0%	−0.9 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.1% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.1	36.7	−3.6	354	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.1 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 11.6%
Baseline: 15.4%
Sample: 354 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 354 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	11.6%	15.4%	−3.8 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.6% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	18.9%	21.2%	−2.3 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 18.9% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.9%	37.1%	−1.2 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.1%	28.0%	−0.9 pp	354	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.1% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.1	36.7	−3.6	354	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.1 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Snow affirmative/modelled. Weather and roof from a validated kickoff-weather record; outdoor games only
Baseline: Other outdoor games with known snow status
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.