NFL · All time: Myth checked
International game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 17.0%
- Baseline
- 16.5%
- Sample
- 317 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.0% | 16.5% | +0.5 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.9% | 39.3% | −1.4 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 22.4% | +1.0 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.7% | 29.8% | −1.0 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.8 | 38.5 | −0.6 | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.8 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 75 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 75 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 71 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 71 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 71 | Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 71 | Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 71 | Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 71 | Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 71 | Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=296 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 296 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 296 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 296 | Too small to publish in this window: n=296 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 296 | Too small to publish in this window: n=296 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 296 | Too small to publish in this window: n=296 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 296 | Too small to publish in this window: n=296 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 296 | Too small to publish in this window: n=296 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 17.0%
- Baseline
- 16.5%
- Sample
- 317 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.0% | 16.5% | +0.5 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.9% | 39.3% | −1.4 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 22.4% | +1.0 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.7% | 29.8% | −1.0 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.8 | 38.5 | −0.6 | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.8 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 17.0%
- Baseline
- 16.5%
- Sample
- 317 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.0% | 16.5% | +0.5 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.9% | 39.3% | −1.4 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 22.4% | +1.0 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.7% | 29.8% | −1.0 pp | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.8 | 38.5 | −0.6 | 317 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.8 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- meta.intl: neutral site outside the USA
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.