NFL · All time: Explained by quality
West Coast team, early road game in Eastern time
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 28.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 34.9%
- Baseline
- 28.8%
- Sample
- 439 player-games
- Adjusted
- +4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 439 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 34.9% | 28.8% | +6.0 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 28.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 21.2% | 15.8% | +5.4 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 21.2% of games, vs 15.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 44.0% | 38.3% | +5.6 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 44.0% of games, vs 38.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 43.4 | 37.8 | +5.6 | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 43.4 rec yds, vs 37.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.0% | −0.7 pp | 118 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.7% | 11.7% | +1.0 pp | 118 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.7% | 38.7% | +2.0 pp | 118 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.7% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.5% | 28.3% | +2.2 pp | 118 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.5% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.7% | 21.2% | +2.5 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.7% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 55.2 | −1.2 | 118 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 12 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 12 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 10 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 12 | Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 12 | Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 12 | Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 12 | Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 12 | Too small to publish in this window: n=12 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 7 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 24 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 24 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 10 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.7% of games, vs 27.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 33.7%
- Baseline
- 27.9%
- Sample
- 285 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 285 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 3 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 33.7% | 27.9% | +5.8 pp | 285 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.7% of games, vs 27.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 20.4% | 15.4% | +4.9 pp | 285 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 20.4% of games, vs 15.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 42.5 | 36.9 | +5.6 | 285 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 42.5 rec yds, vs 36.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 2 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 42.8% | 37.2% | +5.6 pp | 285 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.8% of games, vs 37.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.8% | 20.5% | +1.2 pp | 285 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.8% of games, vs 20.5%. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 28.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 34.9%
- Baseline
- 28.8%
- Sample
- 439 player-games
- Adjusted
- +4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 439 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 34.9% | 28.8% | +6.0 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 28.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 21.2% | 15.8% | +5.4 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 21.2% of games, vs 15.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 44.0% | 38.3% | +5.6 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 44.0% of games, vs 38.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 43.4 | 37.8 | +5.6 | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 43.4 rec yds, vs 37.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.0% | −0.7 pp | 118 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.7% | 11.7% | +1.0 pp | 118 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.7% | 38.7% | +2.0 pp | 118 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.7% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.5% | 28.3% | +2.2 pp | 118 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.5% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.7% | 21.2% | +2.5 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.7% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 55.2 | −1.2 | 118 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 28.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 34.9%
- Baseline
- 28.8%
- Sample
- 439 player-games
- Adjusted
- +4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 439 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 34.9% | 28.8% | +6.0 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 28.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 21.2% | 15.8% | +5.4 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 21.2% of games, vs 15.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 44.0% | 38.3% | +5.6 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 44.0% of games, vs 38.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 43.4 | 37.8 | +5.6 | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 43.4 rec yds, vs 37.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.0% | −0.7 pp | 118 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.7% | 11.7% | +1.0 pp | 118 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.7% | 38.7% | +2.0 pp | 118 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.7% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.5% | 28.3% | +2.2 pp | 118 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.5% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.7% | 21.2% | +2.5 pp | 439 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.7% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 55.2 | −1.2 | 118 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Pacific-time team (SF SEA LAR LAC LV) at an Eastern-time home team, kickoff before 2 PM ET
- Baseline
- All other domestic road team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.