NFL · All time: Explained by quality
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pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.6% of games, vs 62.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.6%
- Baseline
- 62.7%
- Sample
- 793 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 793 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.6% | 62.7% | +4.9 pp | 793 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.6% of games, vs 62.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 45.4 | 46.0 | −0.6 | 386 | Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 42.6% | 43.5% | −0.9 pp | 793 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.6% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.0% | 29.4% | −0.4 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.0% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 56.7% | 52.5% | +4.2 pp | 386 | Home teams won 56.7%, vs 52.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.9% | 12.5% | −0.6 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.9% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.9% | 39.9% | +0.0 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.9% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.7% | 22.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.7% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 29.7% | +0.3 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.5% | 49.6% | −0.1 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.5% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.8% | +1.5 pp | 386 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.3% | 38.9% | +1.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.3% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.6% | 50.0% | +3.6 pp | 793 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.6% of games, vs 50.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.1% | 37.8% | +2.3 pp | 793 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.1% of games, vs 37.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 232.4 | 225.0 | +7.3 | 793 | QBs averaged 232.4 pass yds, vs 225.0. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.8 | 55.7 | +0.1 | 1,084 | RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 38.3 | +0.6 | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=27 from 27 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 27 games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 27 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 18 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 27 | Too small to publish in this window: n=27 from 27 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 54 | Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 54 | Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 54 | Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 54 | Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 27 | Too small to publish in this window: n=27 from 27 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 274 | Too small to publish in this window: n=274 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 274 | Too small to publish in this window: n=274 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 27 | Too small to publish in this window: n=27 from 27 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 274 | Too small to publish in this window: n=274 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 274 | Too small to publish in this window: n=274 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 54 | Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 274 | Too small to publish in this window: n=274 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 65.9% of games, vs 56.8%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 65.9%
- Baseline
- 56.8%
- Sample
- 129 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 129 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 65.9% | 56.8% | +9.1 pp | 129 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 65.9% of games, vs 56.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 41.1% | 34.1% | +7.0 pp | 129 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 41.1% of games, vs 34.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 41.9% | 43.7% | −1.8 pp | 129 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.9% of games, vs 43.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 51.2% | 45.0% | +6.2 pp | 129 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 51.2% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.0% | 39.2% | −0.2 pp | 187 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.0% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.8% | 29.7% | −1.9 pp | 187 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.8% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 25.6% | 26.4% | −0.8 pp | 637 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.6% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 14.1% | 14.5% | −0.4 pp | 637 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.1% of games, vs 14.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.5% | 35.1% | +2.4 pp | 637 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.5% of games, vs 35.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 50.8% | 49.1% | +1.7 pp | 187 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 50.8% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.1% | 21.7% | +0.4 pp | 637 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.1% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.8% | 11.7% | +1.2 pp | 187 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 226.8 | 213.6 | +13.2 | 129 | QBs averaged 226.8 pass yds, vs 213.6. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.5 | 55.1 | +2.4 | 187 | RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.1. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.3 | 35.6 | +1.7 | 637 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.3 rec yds, vs 35.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 63 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 63 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 63 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 60.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.3%
- Baseline
- 60.7%
- Sample
- 556 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 556 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.3% | 60.7% | +6.6 pp | 556 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 60.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 229.8 | 220.7 | +9.1 | 556 | QBs averaged 229.8 pass yds, vs 220.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 44.5 | 45.2 | −0.7 | 272 | Games averaged 44.5 combined points, vs 45.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 38.7% | 41.9% | −3.2 pp | 556 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.7% of games, vs 41.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.4% | 21.8% | −0.5 pp | 2,718 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.4% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 41.6% | 38.9% | +2.7 pp | 772 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.6% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.5% | 47.5% | +5.0 pp | 556 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.5% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 57.4% | 53.8% | +3.5 pp | 272 | Home teams won 57.4%, vs 53.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.7% | 49.2% | +0.5 pp | 772 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.7% of games, vs 49.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.6% | 16.1% | +0.5 pp | 2,718 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.6% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.7% | 29.8% | −0.1 pp | 772 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.7% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.6% | 28.8% | +0.8 pp | 2,718 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.6% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.4% | 5.8% | +1.6 pp | 272 | 7.4% of games went to overtime, vs 5.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.7% | 35.5% | +3.1 pp | 556 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.7% of games, vs 35.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.5% | 38.1% | +1.4 pp | 2,718 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.5% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.4% | 12.6% | −0.2 pp | 772 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.4% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.5 | +1.1 | 772 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.5. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.5 | 37.6 | +0.9 | 2,718 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.5 rec yds, vs 37.6. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.6% of games, vs 62.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.6%
- Baseline
- 62.7%
- Sample
- 793 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 793 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.6% | 62.7% | +4.9 pp | 793 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.6% of games, vs 62.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 45.4 | 46.0 | −0.6 | 386 | Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 42.6% | 43.5% | −0.9 pp | 793 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.6% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.0% | 29.4% | −0.4 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.0% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 56.7% | 52.5% | +4.2 pp | 386 | Home teams won 56.7%, vs 52.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.9% | 12.5% | −0.6 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.9% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.9% | 39.9% | +0.0 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.9% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.7% | 22.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.7% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 29.7% | +0.3 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.5% | 49.6% | −0.1 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.5% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.8% | +1.5 pp | 386 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.3% | 38.9% | +1.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.3% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.6% | 50.0% | +3.6 pp | 793 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.6% of games, vs 50.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.1% | 37.8% | +2.3 pp | 793 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.1% of games, vs 37.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 232.4 | 225.0 | +7.3 | 793 | QBs averaged 232.4 pass yds, vs 225.0. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.8 | 55.7 | +0.1 | 1,084 | RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 38.3 | +0.6 | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.6% of games, vs 62.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.6%
- Baseline
- 62.7%
- Sample
- 793 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 793 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.6% | 62.7% | +4.9 pp | 793 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.6% of games, vs 62.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 45.4 | 46.0 | −0.6 | 386 | Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 42.6% | 43.5% | −0.9 pp | 793 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.6% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.0% | 29.4% | −0.4 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.0% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 56.7% | 52.5% | +4.2 pp | 386 | Home teams won 56.7%, vs 52.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.9% | 12.5% | −0.6 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.9% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.9% | 39.9% | +0.0 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.9% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.7% | 22.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.7% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 29.7% | +0.3 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.5% | 49.6% | −0.1 pp | 1,084 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.5% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.8% | +1.5 pp | 386 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.3% | 38.9% | +1.4 pp | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.3% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.6% | 50.0% | +3.6 pp | 793 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.6% of games, vs 50.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.1% | 37.8% | +2.3 pp | 793 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.1% of games, vs 37.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 232.4 | 225.0 | +7.3 | 793 | QBs averaged 232.4 pass yds, vs 225.0. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.8 | 55.7 | +0.1 | 1,084 | RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 38.3 | +0.6 | 3,891 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Kickoff at or after 7:00 PM ET (DST-aware), not international: SNF, MNF, TNF, Saturday night
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.