NFL · All time: Myth checked
Thursday (not Thanksgiving)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.6% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 46.6%
- Baseline
- 39.5%
- Sample
- 268 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 268 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 46.6% | 39.5% | +7.1 pp | 268 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.6% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.0% | 49.4% | +3.6 pp | 268 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.0% of games, vs 49.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 56.5% | 50.4% | +6.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 56.5% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.1% | 38.0% | +5.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.1% of games, vs 38.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.5% | 63.5% | +4.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.5% of games, vs 63.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 26.5% | 29.5% | −3.0 pp | 268 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.6% | 12.4% | −0.9 pp | 268 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.5% | 22.3% | +1.1 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.5% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.8% | 29.8% | −1.0 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.8% | 39.2% | +0.6 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.8% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.5% | 43.3% | +1.2 pp | 209 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.5% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.5% | +0.3 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 236.2 | 226.0 | +10.2 | 209 | QBs averaged 236.2 pass yds, vs 226.0. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.0 | 38.4 | +1.6 | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.0 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.8 | 55.7 | +0.1 | 268 | RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 21 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 21 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 47 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 47 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 47 | Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 47 | Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 174 | Too small to publish in this window: n=174 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 47 | Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 174 | Too small to publish in this window: n=174 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 174 | Too small to publish in this window: n=174 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 174 | Too small to publish in this window: n=174 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 47 | Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 174 | Too small to publish in this window: n=174 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 47 | Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.2% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 46.2%
- Baseline
- 39.1%
- Sample
- 199 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 199 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 46.2% | 39.1% | +7.2 pp | 199 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.2% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 55.9% | 48.1% | +7.8 pp | 152 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 55.9% of games, vs 48.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.8% | 49.0% | +4.7 pp | 199 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.8% of games, vs 49.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.1% | 61.8% | +5.3 pp | 152 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.1% of games, vs 61.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 42.8% | 35.8% | +7.0 pp | 152 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 42.8% of games, vs 35.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 25.6% | 30.0% | −4.4 pp | 199 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 25.6% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.1% | 12.7% | −1.6 pp | 199 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.1% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.7% | 41.0% | +3.7 pp | 152 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.7% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.0% | 21.7% | +1.4 pp | 738 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.0% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.3% | 29.0% | +0.3 pp | 738 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.3% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.0% | 38.3% | +0.7 pp | 738 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.7% | 16.1% | +0.5 pp | 738 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.7% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 234.0 | 221.9 | +12.0 | 152 | QBs averaged 234.0 pass yds, vs 221.9. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.4 | 37.6 | +1.8 | 738 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.4 rec yds, vs 37.6. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.0 | 55.7 | −0.7 | 199 | RBs averaged 55.0 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.6% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 46.6%
- Baseline
- 39.5%
- Sample
- 268 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 268 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 46.6% | 39.5% | +7.1 pp | 268 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.6% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.0% | 49.4% | +3.6 pp | 268 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.0% of games, vs 49.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 56.5% | 50.4% | +6.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 56.5% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.1% | 38.0% | +5.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.1% of games, vs 38.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.5% | 63.5% | +4.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.5% of games, vs 63.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 26.5% | 29.5% | −3.0 pp | 268 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.6% | 12.4% | −0.9 pp | 268 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.5% | 22.3% | +1.1 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.5% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.8% | 29.8% | −1.0 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.8% | 39.2% | +0.6 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.8% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.5% | 43.3% | +1.2 pp | 209 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.5% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.5% | +0.3 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 236.2 | 226.0 | +10.2 | 209 | QBs averaged 236.2 pass yds, vs 226.0. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.0 | 38.4 | +1.6 | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.0 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.8 | 55.7 | +0.1 | 268 | RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.6% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 46.6%
- Baseline
- 39.5%
- Sample
- 268 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 268 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 46.6% | 39.5% | +7.1 pp | 268 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.6% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.0% | 49.4% | +3.6 pp | 268 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.0% of games, vs 49.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 56.5% | 50.4% | +6.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 56.5% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.1% | 38.0% | +5.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.1% of games, vs 38.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.5% | 63.5% | +4.0 pp | 209 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.5% of games, vs 63.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 26.5% | 29.5% | −3.0 pp | 268 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.6% | 12.4% | −0.9 pp | 268 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.5% | 22.3% | +1.1 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.5% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.8% | 29.8% | −1.0 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.8% | 39.2% | +0.6 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.8% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.5% | 43.3% | +1.2 pp | 209 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.5% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.5% | +0.3 pp | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 236.2 | 226.0 | +10.2 | 209 | QBs averaged 236.2 pass yds, vs 226.0. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.0 | 38.4 | +1.6 | 1,019 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.0 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.8 | 55.7 | +0.1 | 268 | RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(92 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Thursday ET kickoff, excluding Thanksgiving Day and international games (mostly TNF; teams usually on a short week)
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.