NFL · All time: Myth checked
Short week (5 or fewer days)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 43.4%
- Baseline
- 38.1%
- Sample
- 242 player-games
- Adjusted
- +5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 242 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.4% | 38.1% | +5.3 pp | 242 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 43.4% | 39.5% | +4.0 pp | 320 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 56.2% | 50.6% | +5.6 pp | 242 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 56.2% of games, vs 50.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 47.5% | 43.2% | +4.3 pp | 242 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 47.5% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.5% | 63.6% | +2.9 pp | 242 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.5% of games, vs 63.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.6% | 49.8% | +1.8 pp | 320 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.6% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 24.0% | 22.3% | +1.7 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.0% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 29.8% | −1.3 pp | 320 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.4% | 39.2% | +1.2 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.4% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.9% | 16.6% | +0.3 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.9% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 29.8% | +0.1 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.8% | 12.5% | +0.3 pp | 320 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 236.5 | 225.8 | +10.7 | 242 | QBs averaged 236.5 pass yds, vs 225.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.1 | 38.4 | +1.7 | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.1 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.8 | +0.7 | 320 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 21 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 21 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 83 | Too small to publish in this window: n=83 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 40 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 40 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 55 | Too small to publish in this window: n=55 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 55 | Too small to publish in this window: n=55 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 195 | Too small to publish in this window: n=195 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 195 | Too small to publish in this window: n=195 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 55 | Too small to publish in this window: n=55 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 195 | Too small to publish in this window: n=195 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 55 | Too small to publish in this window: n=55 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 195 | Too small to publish in this window: n=195 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 195 | Too small to publish in this window: n=195 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 55 | Too small to publish in this window: n=55 from 20 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 57.6% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 57.6%
- Baseline
- 48.4%
- Sample
- 170 player-games
- Adjusted
- +9.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 170 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 57.6% | 48.4% | +9.2 pp | 170 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 57.6% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 68.2% | 61.9% | +6.3 pp | 170 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 68.2% of games, vs 61.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 48.8% | 41.0% | +7.9 pp | 170 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 48.8% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.5% | 36.2% | +7.3 pp | 170 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.5% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 52.8% | 49.5% | +3.3 pp | 229 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 52.8% of games, vs 49.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 24.2% | 21.7% | +2.5 pp | 823 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.2% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 41.5% | 39.0% | +2.5 pp | 229 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.5% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 30.4% | −2.0 pp | 229 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.8% | 12.7% | −0.9 pp | 229 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.8% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.4% | 29.1% | +1.3 pp | 823 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.4% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.4% | 38.4% | +1.0 pp | 823 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.4% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.8% | 16.4% | +0.4 pp | 823 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.8% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 235.9 | 221.9 | +13.9 | 170 | QBs averaged 235.9 pass yds, vs 221.9. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.6 | 37.8 | +1.8 | 823 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.6 rec yds, vs 37.8. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.3 | 55.9 | −0.6 | 229 | RBs averaged 55.3 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 43.4%
- Baseline
- 38.1%
- Sample
- 242 player-games
- Adjusted
- +5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 242 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.4% | 38.1% | +5.3 pp | 242 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 43.4% | 39.5% | +4.0 pp | 320 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 56.2% | 50.6% | +5.6 pp | 242 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 56.2% of games, vs 50.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 47.5% | 43.2% | +4.3 pp | 242 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 47.5% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.5% | 63.6% | +2.9 pp | 242 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.5% of games, vs 63.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.6% | 49.8% | +1.8 pp | 320 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.6% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 24.0% | 22.3% | +1.7 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.0% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 29.8% | −1.3 pp | 320 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.4% | 39.2% | +1.2 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.4% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.9% | 16.6% | +0.3 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.9% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 29.8% | +0.1 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.8% | 12.5% | +0.3 pp | 320 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 236.5 | 225.8 | +10.7 | 242 | QBs averaged 236.5 pass yds, vs 225.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.1 | 38.4 | +1.7 | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.1 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.8 | +0.7 | 320 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 43.4%
- Baseline
- 38.1%
- Sample
- 242 player-games
- Adjusted
- +5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 242 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 43.4% | 38.1% | +5.3 pp | 242 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 43.4% | 39.5% | +4.0 pp | 320 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 56.2% | 50.6% | +5.6 pp | 242 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 56.2% of games, vs 50.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 47.5% | 43.2% | +4.3 pp | 242 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 47.5% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.5% | 63.6% | +2.9 pp | 242 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.5% of games, vs 63.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.6% | 49.8% | +1.8 pp | 320 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.6% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 24.0% | 22.3% | +1.7 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.0% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 29.8% | −1.3 pp | 320 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.4% | 39.2% | +1.2 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.4% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.9% | 16.6% | +0.3 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.9% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 29.8% | +0.1 pp | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.8% | 12.5% | +0.3 pp | 320 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 236.5 | 225.8 | +10.7 | 242 | QBs averaged 236.5 pass yds, vs 225.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.1 | 38.4 | +1.7 | 1,169 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.1 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.8 | +0.7 | 320 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.1 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Days since previous game <= 5 (e.g. Sunday -> Thursday), same season
- Baseline
- Team-games with 6+ days since previous game
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.