NFL · All time: Explained by quality
Prime time / intl
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 62.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.3%
- Baseline
- 62.6%
- Sample
- 897 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 897 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.3% | 62.6% | +4.7 pp | 897 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 62.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 232.0 | 224.9 | +7.1 | 897 | QBs averaged 232.0 pass yds, vs 224.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 45.4 | 46.0 | −0.6 | 437 | Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 42.7% | 43.5% | −0.8 pp | 897 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.7% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.5% | 40.0% | −0.5 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.5% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 55.4% | 52.8% | +2.6 pp | 437 | Home teams won 55.4%, vs 52.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.4% | 29.3% | +0.1 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.4% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.0% | 29.6% | +0.4 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.0% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.7% | +1.6 pp | 437 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.1% | 12.5% | −0.4 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.5% | 49.9% | +3.6 pp | 897 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.5% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.9% | 22.2% | +0.7 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.9% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.4% | 38.9% | +1.5 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.4% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.9% | 49.5% | +0.4 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.9% of games, vs 49.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.0% | 16.4% | +0.6 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.1% | 37.7% | +2.4 pp | 897 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.1% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.0 | 38.3 | +0.7 | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.0 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.0 | 55.6 | +0.4 | 1,222 | RBs averaged 56.0 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.8% of games, vs 28.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 31.8%
- Baseline
- 28.2%
- Sample
- 349 player-games
- Adjusted
- +4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 349 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.8% | 28.2% | +3.6 pp | 349 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.8% of games, vs 28.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.9% | 15.3% | +1.6 pp | 349 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.9% of games, vs 15.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.3% | 22.4% | −0.0 pp | 349 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.5% | 37.0% | +2.5 pp | 349 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.5% of games, vs 37.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.0 | 36.8 | +2.3 | 349 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.0 rec yds, vs 36.8. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 13 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 93 | Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 93 | Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 93 | Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 93 | Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 93 | Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 64.9% of games, vs 56.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 64.9%
- Baseline
- 56.7%
- Sample
- 151 player-games
- Adjusted
- +6.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 151 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 64.9% | 56.7% | +8.2 pp | 151 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 64.9% of games, vs 56.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 37.9% | 39.6% | −1.7 pp | 219 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.9% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 41.1% | 33.7% | +7.3 pp | 151 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 41.1% of games, vs 33.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 41.7% | 43.8% | −2.1 pp | 151 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.7% of games, vs 43.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.9% | 29.8% | −1.9 pp | 219 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 51.0% | 44.7% | +6.3 pp | 151 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 51.0% of games, vs 44.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.6% | 48.8% | +2.8 pp | 219 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.6% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.3% | 35.0% | +2.3 pp | 747 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 25.8% | 26.3% | −0.5 pp | 747 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.2% | 11.5% | +1.8 pp | 219 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 11.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 14.6% | 14.4% | +0.2 pp | 747 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.6% of games, vs 14.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.6% | 21.5% | +1.1 pp | 747 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.6% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 226.1 | 213.2 | +12.9 | 151 | QBs averaged 226.1 pass yds, vs 213.2. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.9 | 54.8 | +3.1 | 219 | RBs averaged 57.9 rush yds, vs 54.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.4 | 35.5 | +2.0 | 747 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 35.5. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 74 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 74 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 74 | Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 74 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.8% of games, vs 60.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 66.8%
- Baseline
- 60.6%
- Sample
- 642 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 642 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.8% | 60.6% | +6.3 pp | 642 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.8% of games, vs 60.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 228.8 | 220.7 | +8.1 | 642 | QBs averaged 228.8 pass yds, vs 220.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 44.5 | 45.2 | −0.8 | 314 | Games averaged 44.5 combined points, vs 45.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 39.3% | 41.8% | −2.6 pp | 642 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.3% of games, vs 41.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 50.5% | 48.9% | +1.6 pp | 887 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 50.5% of games, vs 48.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.9% | 21.7% | +0.2 pp | 3,138 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.9% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.2% | 47.4% | +4.8 pp | 642 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.2% of games, vs 47.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 56.4% | 54.0% | +2.4 pp | 314 | Home teams won 56.4%, vs 54.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.8% | 39.0% | +1.8 pp | 887 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.8% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.7% | 12.6% | +0.2 pp | 887 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.6% | 28.8% | +0.7 pp | 3,138 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.6% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.7% | +1.6 pp | 314 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.6% | 16.0% | +0.6 pp | 3,138 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.6% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.3% | 29.6% | +0.7 pp | 887 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.5% | 35.5% | +3.0 pp | 642 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.5% of games, vs 35.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.4% | 38.0% | +1.3 pp | 3,138 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.4% of games, vs 38.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.0 | 55.3 | +1.7 | 887 | RBs averaged 57.0 rush yds, vs 55.3. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.4 | 37.5 | +0.9 | 3,138 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.4 rec yds, vs 37.5. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 62.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.3%
- Baseline
- 62.6%
- Sample
- 897 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 897 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.3% | 62.6% | +4.7 pp | 897 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 62.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 232.0 | 224.9 | +7.1 | 897 | QBs averaged 232.0 pass yds, vs 224.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 45.4 | 46.0 | −0.6 | 437 | Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 42.7% | 43.5% | −0.8 pp | 897 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.7% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.5% | 40.0% | −0.5 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.5% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 55.4% | 52.8% | +2.6 pp | 437 | Home teams won 55.4%, vs 52.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.4% | 29.3% | +0.1 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.4% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.0% | 29.6% | +0.4 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.0% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.7% | +1.6 pp | 437 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.1% | 12.5% | −0.4 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.5% | 49.9% | +3.6 pp | 897 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.5% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.9% | 22.2% | +0.7 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.9% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.4% | 38.9% | +1.5 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.4% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.9% | 49.5% | +0.4 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.9% of games, vs 49.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.0% | 16.4% | +0.6 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.1% | 37.7% | +2.4 pp | 897 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.1% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.0 | 38.3 | +0.7 | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.0 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.0 | 55.6 | +0.4 | 1,222 | RBs averaged 56.0 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 62.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 67.3%
- Baseline
- 62.6%
- Sample
- 897 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 897 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 67.3% | 62.6% | +4.7 pp | 897 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 67.3% of games, vs 62.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 232.0 | 224.9 | +7.1 | 897 | QBs averaged 232.0 pass yds, vs 224.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 45.4 | 46.0 | −0.6 | 437 | Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 42.7% | 43.5% | −0.8 pp | 897 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.7% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.5% | 40.0% | −0.5 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.5% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 55.4% | 52.8% | +2.6 pp | 437 | Home teams won 55.4%, vs 52.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.4% | 29.3% | +0.1 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.4% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.0% | 29.6% | +0.4 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.0% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 7.3% | 5.7% | +1.6 pp | 437 | 7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.1% | 12.5% | −0.4 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.5% | 49.9% | +3.6 pp | 897 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.5% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.9% | 22.2% | +0.7 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.9% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.4% | 38.9% | +1.5 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.4% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 49.9% | 49.5% | +0.4 pp | 1,222 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.9% of games, vs 49.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.0% | 16.4% | +0.6 pp | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.0% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.1% | 37.7% | +2.4 pp | 897 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.1% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.0 | 38.3 | +0.7 | 4,398 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.0 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.0 | 55.6 | +0.4 | 1,222 | RBs averaged 56.0 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- kickoff 7 PM ET or later, or any Monday/Thursday game, or international. Includes Thanksgiving day games.
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.