NFL · All time: Explained by quality
Saturday game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.9% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 56.9%
- Baseline
- 49.3%
- Sample
- 197 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 197 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 56.9% | 49.3% | +7.5 pp | 197 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.9% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 62.6 | 55.4 | +7.1 | 197 | RBs averaged 62.6 rush yds, vs 55.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 13 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 35.5% | 40.1% | −4.6 pp | 197 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.5% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.0% | 43.3% | +0.7 pp | 150 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.0% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.7% | 38.3% | +0.4 pp | 150 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.3% | 50.8% | −1.5 pp | 150 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 50.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 62.0% | 63.8% | −1.8 pp | 150 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.0% of games, vs 63.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 16.2% | 12.2% | +4.0 pp | 197 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 16.2% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 35.0% | 29.1% | +5.9 pp | 197 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 35.0% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.9% | 16.4% | +2.5 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.9% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.9% | 39.3% | −1.4 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.0% | 22.4% | +0.6 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.0% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.5% | 29.7% | −0.2 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.5% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 226.5 | 226.6 | −0.1 | 150 | QBs averaged 226.5 pass yds, vs 226.6. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 38.4 | +0.5 | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 30 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 30 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 30 | Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 105 | Too small to publish in this window: n=105 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 105 | Too small to publish in this window: n=105 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 105 | Too small to publish in this window: n=105 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 30 | Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 30 | Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 30 | Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 105 | Too small to publish in this window: n=105 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 105 | Too small to publish in this window: n=105 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 30 | Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 10 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 1+ TD in 33.8% of games, vs 39.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 33.8%
- Baseline
- 39.7%
- Sample
- 148 player-games
- Adjusted
- −8.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 148 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 33.8% | 39.7% | −5.9 pp | 148 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 33.8% of games, vs 39.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 63.0% | 62.1% | +0.9 pp | 108 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 63.0% of games, vs 62.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 43.5% | 41.1% | +2.4 pp | 108 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 43.5% of games, vs 41.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.1% | 48.5% | +0.5 pp | 108 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.1% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 16.9% | 12.4% | +4.5 pp | 148 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 16.9% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 35.9% | 38.5% | −2.6 pp | 546 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.1% | 16.1% | +2.1 pp | 546 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.1% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.6% | 21.7% | +2.0 pp | 546 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.6% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 39.8% | 36.0% | +3.8 pp | 108 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 39.8% of games, vs 36.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 54.7% | 49.1% | +5.7 pp | 148 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 54.7% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 34.5% | 29.6% | +4.9 pp | 148 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 34.5% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 28.6% | 29.0% | −0.5 pp | 546 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 228.5 | 222.4 | +6.2 | 108 | QBs averaged 228.5 pass yds, vs 222.4. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 61.0 | 55.5 | +5.5 | 148 | RBs averaged 61.0 rush yds, vs 55.5. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.3 | 37.7 | +0.6 | 546 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.3 rec yds, vs 37.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.9% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 56.9%
- Baseline
- 49.3%
- Sample
- 197 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 197 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 56.9% | 49.3% | +7.5 pp | 197 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.9% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 62.6 | 55.4 | +7.1 | 197 | RBs averaged 62.6 rush yds, vs 55.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 13 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 35.5% | 40.1% | −4.6 pp | 197 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.5% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.0% | 43.3% | +0.7 pp | 150 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.0% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.7% | 38.3% | +0.4 pp | 150 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.3% | 50.8% | −1.5 pp | 150 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 50.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 62.0% | 63.8% | −1.8 pp | 150 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.0% of games, vs 63.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 16.2% | 12.2% | +4.0 pp | 197 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 16.2% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 35.0% | 29.1% | +5.9 pp | 197 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 35.0% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.9% | 16.4% | +2.5 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.9% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.9% | 39.3% | −1.4 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.0% | 22.4% | +0.6 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.0% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.5% | 29.7% | −0.2 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.5% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 226.5 | 226.6 | −0.1 | 150 | QBs averaged 226.5 pass yds, vs 226.6. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 38.4 | +0.5 | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.9% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 56.9%
- Baseline
- 49.3%
- Sample
- 197 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 197 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 56.9% | 49.3% | +7.5 pp | 197 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.9% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 62.6 | 55.4 | +7.1 | 197 | RBs averaged 62.6 rush yds, vs 55.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 13 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 35.5% | 40.1% | −4.6 pp | 197 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.5% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.0% | 43.3% | +0.7 pp | 150 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.0% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.7% | 38.3% | +0.4 pp | 150 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.3% | 50.8% | −1.5 pp | 150 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 50.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 62.0% | 63.8% | −1.8 pp | 150 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.0% of games, vs 63.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 16.2% | 12.2% | +4.0 pp | 197 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 16.2% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 35.0% | 29.1% | +5.9 pp | 197 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 35.0% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.9% | 16.4% | +2.5 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.9% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.9% | 39.3% | −1.4 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.0% | 22.4% | +0.6 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.0% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.5% | 29.7% | −0.2 pp | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.5% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 226.5 | 226.6 | −0.1 | 150 | QBs averaged 226.5 pass yds, vs 226.6. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 38.4 | +0.5 | 739 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(68 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Saturday ET (late regular season and playoffs)
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.