NHL · All time: Explained by quality
Revenge: lost the last meeting
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 48.2%
- Baseline
- 51.8%
- Sample
- 3,921 team-games
- Adjusted
- +2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 3,921 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.2% | 51.8% | −3.6 pp | 3,921 | Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.4% | −1.1 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.6% | 24.6% | −0.9 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.6% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.2% | −0.4 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.1% | 11.7% | −0.5 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.1% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.1 | −0.2 | 3,921 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.1 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 64,752 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.0% | 36.8% | −0.8 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.7% | −0.6 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 3,921 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 3,921 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 3,921 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 56.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 43.8%
- Baseline
- 56.2%
- Sample
- 290 team-games
- Adjusted
- −3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 290 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 43.8% | 56.2% | −12.4 pp | 290 | Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 56.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 42.2% | 45.5% | −3.2 pp | 4,817 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 42.2% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 9.6% | 11.3% | −1.6 pp | 4,817 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 9.6% of games, vs 11.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.5 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 4,817 | Skaters averaged 1.5 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 21.8% | 23.9% | −2.1 pp | 4,817 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 21.8% of games, vs 23.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.3% | 26.3% | −1.0 pp | 4,817 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.3% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.2% | 37.5% | −1.3 pp | 4,817 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.2% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.4% | −0.7 pp | 4,817 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.2 | 0.2 | −0.5 | 290 | Average margin −0.2 vs +0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.3 | −0.2 | 290 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.3. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.3 | 3.1 | +0.2 | 290 | Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.4 | 6.4 | +0.0 | 290 | Teams averaged 6.4 game total, vs 6.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.4% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 44.4%
- Baseline
- 45.6%
- Sample
- 22,699 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 22,699 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.4% | 45.6% | −1.3 pp | 22,699 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.4% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.8% | 23.9% | −1.1 pp | 22,699 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.8% of games, vs 23.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.6% | 11.4% | −0.8 pp | 22,699 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.6% of games, vs 11.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.0 | 22,699 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 49.4% | 50.6% | −1.2 pp | 1,376 | Teams won 49.4% of games in this spot, vs 50.6% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.9% | 16.2% | −0.2 pp | 22,699 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.9% of games, vs 16.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.5% | 37.1% | −0.6 pp | 22,699 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.4% | 25.9% | −0.5 pp | 22,699 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.4% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.0 | 0.0 | −0.0 | 1,376 | Average margin −0.0 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.0 | 1,376 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.0 | 1,376 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,376 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 48.2%
- Baseline
- 51.8%
- Sample
- 3,921 team-games
- Adjusted
- +2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 3,921 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.2% | 51.8% | −3.6 pp | 3,921 | Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.4% | −1.1 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.6% | 24.6% | −0.9 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.6% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.2% | −0.4 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.1% | 11.7% | −0.5 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.1% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.1 | −0.2 | 3,921 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.1 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 64,752 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.0% | 36.8% | −0.8 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.7% | −0.6 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 3,921 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 3,921 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 3,921 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 48.2%
- Baseline
- 51.8%
- Sample
- 3,921 team-games
- Adjusted
- +2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 3,921 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.2% | 51.8% | −3.6 pp | 3,921 | Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.4% | −1.1 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.6% | 24.6% | −0.9 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.6% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.2% | −0.4 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.1% | 11.7% | −0.5 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.1% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.1 | −0.2 | 3,921 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.1 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 64,752 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.0% | 36.8% | −0.8 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.7% | −0.6 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 3,921 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 3,921 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 3,921 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 48.2%
- Baseline
- 51.8%
- Sample
- 3,921 team-games
- Adjusted
- +2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 3,921 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.2% | 51.8% | −3.6 pp | 3,921 | Teams won 48.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.8% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.4% | −1.1 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.6% | 24.6% | −0.9 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.6% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.2% | −0.4 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.1% | 11.7% | −0.5 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.1% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.1 | −0.2 | 3,921 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.1 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 64,752 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.0% | 36.8% | −0.8 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.7% | −0.6 pp | 64,752 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 3,921 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 3,921 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 3,921 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(4.4 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Lost the most recent previous meeting with this opponent (within 400 days, any stored season)
- Baseline
- Team-games where the team won the last meeting
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.