NHL · All time: Explained by quality
After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- -0.1
- Baseline
- 0.0
- Sample
- 1,762 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.0 vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,762 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.5% | 50.4% | −1.9 pp | 1,762 | Teams won 48.5% of games in this spot, vs 50.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.3% | 46.2% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.3% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.6% | 24.4% | +0.2 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.6% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.7% | 11.6% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.7% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.9% | 36.6% | −0.8 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.9% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.9% | 25.5% | −0.6 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 28,994 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,762 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 1,762 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.4% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 44.4%
- Baseline
- 43.6%
- Sample
- 1,824 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,824 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.4% | 43.6% | +0.8 pp | 1,824 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.4% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.6% | 37.1% | −2.5 pp | 1,824 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.6% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 10.3% | −0.1 pp | 1,824 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 10.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.5% | 25.9% | −1.5 pp | 1,824 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.9% | 16.1% | −1.2 pp | 1,824 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.9% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 21.9% | 22.9% | −1.0 pp | 1,824 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 21.9% of games, vs 22.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 1,824 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 110 | Too small to publish in this window: n=110 from 95 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 110 | Too small to publish in this window: n=110 from 95 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 110 | Too small to publish in this window: n=110 from 95 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 110 | Too small to publish in this window: n=110 from 95 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 110 | Too small to publish in this window: n=110 from 95 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 51.5% of games in this spot, vs 49.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 51.5%
- Baseline
- 49.8%
- Sample
- 530 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.8 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 530 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 51.5% | 49.8% | +1.7 pp | 530 | Teams won 51.5% of games in this spot, vs 49.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.9% | 23.2% | +0.7 pp | 8,709 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.9% of games, vs 23.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.2% | 45.0% | +0.3 pp | 8,709 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.2% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.4% | 10.9% | +0.5 pp | 8,709 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.4% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.3% | 16.0% | +0.2 pp | 8,709 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.3% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.6% | 36.9% | −0.3 pp | 8,709 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.6% of games, vs 36.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.4% | 25.7% | −0.3 pp | 8,709 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.4% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 | 530 | Average margin +0.0 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 8,709 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.0 | 530 | Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | −0.0 | 530 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 530 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- -0.1
- Baseline
- 0.0
- Sample
- 1,762 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.0 vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,762 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.5% | 50.4% | −1.9 pp | 1,762 | Teams won 48.5% of games in this spot, vs 50.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.3% | 46.2% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.3% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.6% | 24.4% | +0.2 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.6% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.7% | 11.6% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.7% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.9% | 36.6% | −0.8 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.9% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.9% | 25.5% | −0.6 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 28,994 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,762 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 1,762 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- -0.1
- Baseline
- 0.0
- Sample
- 1,762 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.0 vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,762 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.5% | 50.4% | −1.9 pp | 1,762 | Teams won 48.5% of games in this spot, vs 50.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.3% | 46.2% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.3% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.6% | 24.4% | +0.2 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.6% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.7% | 11.6% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.7% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.9% | 36.6% | −0.8 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.9% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.9% | 25.5% | −0.6 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 28,994 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,762 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 1,762 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- -0.1
- Baseline
- 0.0
- Sample
- 1,762 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.0 vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,762 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 48.5% | 50.4% | −1.9 pp | 1,762 | Teams won 48.5% of games in this spot, vs 50.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.3% | 46.2% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.3% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.6% | 24.4% | +0.2 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.6% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.7% | 11.6% | +0.1 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.7% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.9% | 36.6% | −0.8 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.9% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.9% | 25.5% | −0.6 pp | 28,994 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 28,994 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,762 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,762 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 1,762 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(1.9 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Previous game (same season) lost by 17+ NFL / 20+ NBA / 3+ NHL
- Baseline
- Other team-games with a scored previous game
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.