NHL · All time: Explained by quality
Pacific team playing in Eastern time
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 43.7%
- Baseline
- 45.4%
- Sample
- 5,318 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 5,318 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 43.7% | 45.4% | −1.7 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 5,318 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.2% | 46.1% | −3.9 pp | 320 | Teams won 42.2% of games in this spot, vs 46.1% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.5% | 35.4% | −1.0 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.8% | 24.6% | −0.8 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.5% | 23.7% | −1.3 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.5% of games, vs 23.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.0% | 15.5% | −0.5 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 11.1% | −0.9 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.5 | -0.2 | −0.3 | 320 | Average margin −0.5 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 320 | Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.3 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 320 | Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 320 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 29 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 29 team-games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 29 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 29 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 29 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 497 | Too small to publish in this window: n=497 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 29 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 29 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 29 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters averaged 1.5 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Adjusted: −0.1 vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 1.5
- Baseline
- 1.6
- Sample
- 1,634 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.1 vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,634 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.5 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 1,634 | Skaters averaged 1.5 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Adjusted: −0.1 vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 20.6% | 22.8% | −2.2 pp | 1,634 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 20.6% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 41.8% | 44.4% | −2.6 pp | 1,634 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 41.8% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 9.2% | 10.4% | −1.3 pp | 1,634 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 9.2% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.7% | 36.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,634 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.7% of games, vs 36.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.0% | 25.4% | −1.4 pp | 1,634 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.0% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.2% | 15.8% | −0.6 pp | 1,634 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.2% of games, vs 15.8%. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 43.7%
- Baseline
- 45.4%
- Sample
- 5,318 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 5,318 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 43.7% | 45.4% | −1.7 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 5,318 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.2% | 46.1% | −3.9 pp | 320 | Teams won 42.2% of games in this spot, vs 46.1% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.5% | 35.4% | −1.0 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.8% | 24.6% | −0.8 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.5% | 23.7% | −1.3 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.5% of games, vs 23.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.0% | 15.5% | −0.5 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 11.1% | −0.9 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.5 | -0.2 | −0.3 | 320 | Average margin −0.5 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 320 | Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.3 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 320 | Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 320 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 43.7%
- Baseline
- 45.4%
- Sample
- 5,318 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 5,318 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 43.7% | 45.4% | −1.7 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 5,318 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.2% | 46.1% | −3.9 pp | 320 | Teams won 42.2% of games in this spot, vs 46.1% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.5% | 35.4% | −1.0 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.8% | 24.6% | −0.8 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.5% | 23.7% | −1.3 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.5% of games, vs 23.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.0% | 15.5% | −0.5 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 11.1% | −0.9 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.5 | -0.2 | −0.3 | 320 | Average margin −0.5 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 320 | Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.3 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 320 | Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 320 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 43.7%
- Baseline
- 45.4%
- Sample
- 5,318 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 5,318 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 43.7% | 45.4% | −1.7 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.7% of games, vs 45.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 5,318 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.2% | 46.1% | −3.9 pp | 320 | Teams won 42.2% of games in this spot, vs 46.1% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.5% | 35.4% | −1.0 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.8% | 24.6% | −0.8 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.5% | 23.7% | −1.3 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.5% of games, vs 23.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.0% | 15.5% | −0.5 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 11.1% | −0.9 pp | 5,318 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.5 | -0.2 | −0.3 | 320 | Average margin −0.5 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 320 | Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.3 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 320 | Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 320 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.2 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Pacific-time team road game at an Eastern-time home team
- Baseline
- Other domestic road team-games
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.