NHL · All time: Explained by quality

First game with a new team

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 14.7%
Baseline: 24.5%
Sample: 606 player-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 606 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	14.7%	24.5%	−9.8 pp	606	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	12.5%	16.0%	−3.4 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.5% of games, vs 16.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	5.8%	11.7%	−5.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 5.8% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	18.2%	25.4%	−7.3 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 18.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	27.4%	36.6%	−9.2 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ points in 27.4% of games, vs 36.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	35.3%	46.3%	−10.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 35.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.3	1.7	−0.4	606	Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.3% of games, vs 23.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 15.3%
Baseline: 23.0%
Sample: 124 player-games
Adjusted: +0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 124 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	15.3%	23.0%	−7.6 pp	124	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.3% of games, vs 23.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.3	1.6	−0.3	124	Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	37.9%	36.9%	+1.0 pp	124	Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.9% of games, vs 36.9%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	25.0%	25.9%	−0.9 pp	124	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.0% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	11.3%	10.5%	+0.8 pp	124	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.3% of games, vs 10.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.9%	16.1%	+0.9 pp	124	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.9% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	33.9%	44.0%	−10.1 pp	124	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 33.9% of games, vs 44.0%. Not a clear difference.

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ assists in 16.2% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 16.2%
Baseline: 25.7%
Sample: 185 player-games
Adjusted: −2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 185 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	16.2%	25.7%	−9.4 pp	185	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 16.2% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	33.0%	45.1%	−12.1 pp	185	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 33.0% of games, vs 45.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	4.3%	11.0%	−6.7 pp	185	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.3% of games, vs 11.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	25.9%	36.8%	−10.9 pp	185	Skaters reached 1+ points in 25.9% of games, vs 36.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	15.7%	23.4%	−7.7 pp	185	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.7% of games, vs 23.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.3	1.6	−0.3	185	Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	13.5%	16.1%	−2.5 pp	185	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 13.5% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 14.7%
Baseline: 24.5%
Sample: 606 player-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 606 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	14.7%	24.5%	−9.8 pp	606	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	12.5%	16.0%	−3.4 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.5% of games, vs 16.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	5.8%	11.7%	−5.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 5.8% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	18.2%	25.4%	−7.3 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 18.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	27.4%	36.6%	−9.2 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ points in 27.4% of games, vs 36.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	35.3%	46.3%	−10.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 35.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.3	1.7	−0.4	606	Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 14.7%
Baseline: 24.5%
Sample: 606 player-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 606 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	14.7%	24.5%	−9.8 pp	606	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	12.5%	16.0%	−3.4 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.5% of games, vs 16.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	5.8%	11.7%	−5.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 5.8% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	18.2%	25.4%	−7.3 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 18.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	27.4%	36.6%	−9.2 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ points in 27.4% of games, vs 36.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	35.3%	46.3%	−10.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 35.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.3	1.7	−0.4	606	Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 14.7%
Baseline: 24.5%
Sample: 606 player-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 606 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	14.7%	24.5%	−9.8 pp	606	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 14.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	12.5%	16.0%	−3.4 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.5% of games, vs 16.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	5.8%	11.7%	−5.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 5.8% of games, vs 11.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	18.2%	25.4%	−7.3 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 18.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	27.4%	36.6%	−9.2 pp	606	Skaters reached 1+ points in 27.4% of games, vs 36.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	35.3%	46.3%	−10.9 pp	606	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 35.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.3	1.7	−0.4	606	Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Team differs from the player's previous stored game. LEFT-CENSORED: a player's first stored game is never flagged
Baseline: Player-games with a previous stored game on the same team
All-time seasons: 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.