NHL · All time: Myth checked
First home game after a 3+ game road trip
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 57.3%
- Baseline
- 53.8%
- Sample
- 688 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 688 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 57.3% | 53.8% | +3.5 pp | 688 | Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 47.7% | 47.0% | +0.7 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.1% | 37.5% | +0.6 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.1% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.7% | 16.4% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.5% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.5% | 25.2% | +0.2 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.5% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.0 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Average margin +0.3 vs +0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 11,328 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 688 | Teams allowed 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 688 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.0% of games, vs 45.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 43.0%
- Baseline
- 45.5%
- Sample
- 611 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 611 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 43.0% | 45.5% | −2.4 pp | 611 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.0% of games, vs 45.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.7% | 24.2% | −1.5 pp | 611 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.7% of games, vs 24.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.5% | 11.3% | −0.8 pp | 611 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.5% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 28.0% | 26.5% | +1.5 pp | 611 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 28.0% of games, vs 26.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 39.0% | 38.0% | +1.0 pp | 611 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 39.0% of games, vs 38.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 17.3% | 16.5% | +0.8 pp | 611 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.3% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 611 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 52.6% of games in this spot, vs 52.1% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 52.6%
- Baseline
- 52.1%
- Sample
- 215 team-games
- Adjusted
- +1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 215 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 52.6% | 52.1% | +0.5 pp | 215 | Teams won 52.6% of games in this spot, vs 52.1% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.9% | 37.3% | +0.5 pp | 3,544 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.5% | 25.9% | +0.5 pp | 3,544 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.5% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.4% | 24.0% | +0.4 pp | 3,544 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.4% of games, vs 24.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.3% | 11.7% | −0.3 pp | 3,544 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.3% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.7% | 45.8% | −0.1 pp | 3,544 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.7% of games, vs 45.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.3% | 16.4% | −0.1 pp | 3,544 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.3% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.1 | 0.1 | −0.0 | 215 | Average margin +0.1 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 3,544 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.2 | −0.0 | 215 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.1 | 3.1 | +0.0 | 215 | Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 215 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 57.3%
- Baseline
- 53.8%
- Sample
- 688 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 688 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 57.3% | 53.8% | +3.5 pp | 688 | Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 47.7% | 47.0% | +0.7 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.1% | 37.5% | +0.6 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.1% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.7% | 16.4% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.5% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.5% | 25.2% | +0.2 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.5% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.0 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Average margin +0.3 vs +0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 11,328 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 688 | Teams allowed 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 688 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 57.3%
- Baseline
- 53.8%
- Sample
- 688 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 688 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 57.3% | 53.8% | +3.5 pp | 688 | Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 47.7% | 47.0% | +0.7 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.1% | 37.5% | +0.6 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.1% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.7% | 16.4% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.5% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.5% | 25.2% | +0.2 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.5% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.0 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Average margin +0.3 vs +0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 11,328 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 688 | Teams allowed 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 688 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 57.3%
- Baseline
- 53.8%
- Sample
- 688 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 688 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 57.3% | 53.8% | +3.5 pp | 688 | Teams won 57.3% of games in this spot, vs 53.8% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 47.7% | 47.0% | +0.7 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.1% | 37.5% | +0.6 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.1% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.7% | 16.4% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.5% | 26.2% | +0.3 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.5% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.5% | 25.2% | +0.2 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.5% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.0 pp | 11,328 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Average margin +0.3 vs +0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 11,328 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.1 | 688 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.1 | 688 | Teams allowed 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 688 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.5 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Home game right after 3+ straight away games
- Baseline
- Other HOME team-games
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.