NHL · All time: Explained by quality
Bounce-back after missing the line
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 14.8%
- Baseline
- 22.2%
- Sample
- 122,035 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 122,035 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 6 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.8% | 22.2% | −7.4 pp | 122,035 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.5% | 31.2% | −7.7 pp | 108,422 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.5% of games, vs 31.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 43.7% | −11.2 pp | 92,331 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 23.4% | −13.2 pp | 128,279 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 23.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 20.7% | 36.5% | −15.8 pp | 109,843 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 20.7% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 39.1% | 54.7% | −15.5 pp | 78,591 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 39.1% of games, vs 54.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 20.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 15.0%
- Baseline
- 20.6%
- Sample
- 7,540 player-games
- Adjusted
- +7.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 7,540 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 6 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.0% | 20.6% | −5.6 pp | 7,540 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 20.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.7% | 31.5% | −7.9 pp | 6,676 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.7% of games, vs 31.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 19.6% | 33.8% | −14.2 pp | 6,950 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 19.6% of games, vs 33.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 9.2% | 20.3% | −11.1 pp | 8,071 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 9.2% of games, vs 20.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 37.7% | 52.3% | −14.6 pp | 5,072 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 37.7% of games, vs 52.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 43.9% | −11.4 pp | 5,670 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 43.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.8% of games, vs 31.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 23.8%
- Baseline
- 31.2%
- Sample
- 33,672 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 33,672 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 6 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.8% | 31.2% | −7.3 pp | 33,672 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.8% of games, vs 31.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.9% | 22.6% | −7.7 pp | 37,949 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.9% of games, vs 22.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 38.4% | 53.3% | −14.9 pp | 25,043 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 38.4% of games, vs 53.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.8% | 44.0% | −11.2 pp | 28,632 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.8% of games, vs 44.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 19.8% | 35.2% | −15.4 pp | 34,702 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 19.8% of games, vs 35.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 9.6% | 22.2% | −12.6 pp | 40,247 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 9.6% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 14.8%
- Baseline
- 22.2%
- Sample
- 122,035 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 122,035 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 6 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.8% | 22.2% | −7.4 pp | 122,035 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.5% | 31.2% | −7.7 pp | 108,422 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.5% of games, vs 31.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 43.7% | −11.2 pp | 92,331 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 23.4% | −13.2 pp | 128,279 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 23.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 20.7% | 36.5% | −15.8 pp | 109,843 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 20.7% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 39.1% | 54.7% | −15.5 pp | 78,591 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 39.1% of games, vs 54.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 14.8%
- Baseline
- 22.2%
- Sample
- 122,035 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 122,035 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 6 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.8% | 22.2% | −7.4 pp | 122,035 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.5% | 31.2% | −7.7 pp | 108,422 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.5% of games, vs 31.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 43.7% | −11.2 pp | 92,331 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 23.4% | −13.2 pp | 128,279 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 23.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 20.7% | 36.5% | −15.8 pp | 109,843 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 20.7% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 39.1% | 54.7% | −15.5 pp | 78,591 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 39.1% of games, vs 54.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 14.8%
- Baseline
- 22.2%
- Sample
- 122,035 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 122,035 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 6 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.8% | 22.2% | −7.4 pp | 122,035 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 23.5% | 31.2% | −7.7 pp | 108,422 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.5% of games, vs 31.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.5% | 43.7% | −11.2 pp | 92,331 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.5% of games, vs 43.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.2% | 23.4% | −13.2 pp | 128,279 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 23.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 20.7% | 36.5% | −15.8 pp | 109,843 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 20.7% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 39.1% | 54.7% | −15.5 pp | 78,591 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 39.1% of games, vs 54.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(8.4 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Previous game (same season) under the same line (value < X); next-game X+ rate
- Baseline
- Same players after a game that hit the line
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.