NHL · All time: Myth checked
Rubber match (3rd meeting, series 1-1)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.4
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 360 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 360 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.4 | 6.2 | +0.2 | 360 | Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.1% | 54.2% | +3.8 pp | 360 | Home teams won 58.1%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.7% | 36.2% | +1.4 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.7% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.6% | 45.9% | −0.3 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.6% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 21.7% | 23.5% | −1.9 pp | 360 | 21.7% of games went to overtime, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.5% | 15.9% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.5% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.9% | 25.3% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.9% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.9% | 11.9% | −0.0 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.9% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.3% | +0.2 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 11,896 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 1 games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 1 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 10 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 1 | Too small to publish in this window: n=1 from 1 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 1 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.6% of games, vs 35.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 37.6%
- Baseline
- 35.7%
- Sample
- 4,305 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 4,305 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.6% | 35.7% | +1.9 pp | 4,305 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.6% of games, vs 35.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.3% | 24.8% | +1.5 pp | 4,305 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.3% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.9% | 10.4% | +1.5 pp | 4,305 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.9% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.3% | 22.6% | +1.7 pp | 4,305 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.3% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.5% | 15.5% | +1.0 pp | 4,305 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.5% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.0% | 43.5% | +1.5 pp | 4,305 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | +0.1 | 4,305 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | – | – | – | 131 | Too small to publish in this window: n=131 from 131 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 131 | Too small to publish in this window: n=131 from 131 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 131 | Too small to publish in this window: n=131 from 131 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.4
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 360 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 360 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.4 | 6.2 | +0.2 | 360 | Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.1% | 54.2% | +3.8 pp | 360 | Home teams won 58.1%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.7% | 36.2% | +1.4 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.7% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.6% | 45.9% | −0.3 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.6% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 21.7% | 23.5% | −1.9 pp | 360 | 21.7% of games went to overtime, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.5% | 15.9% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.5% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.9% | 25.3% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.9% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.9% | 11.9% | −0.0 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.9% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.3% | +0.2 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 11,896 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.4
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 360 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 360 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.4 | 6.2 | +0.2 | 360 | Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.1% | 54.2% | +3.8 pp | 360 | Home teams won 58.1%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.7% | 36.2% | +1.4 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.7% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.6% | 45.9% | −0.3 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.6% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 21.7% | 23.5% | −1.9 pp | 360 | 21.7% of games went to overtime, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.5% | 15.9% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.5% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.9% | 25.3% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.9% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.9% | 11.9% | −0.0 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.9% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.3% | +0.2 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 11,896 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.4
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 360 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 360 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.4 | 6.2 | +0.2 | 360 | Games averaged 6.4 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.1% | 54.2% | +3.8 pp | 360 | Home teams won 58.1%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.7% | 36.2% | +1.4 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.7% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.6% | 45.9% | −0.3 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.6% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 21.7% | 23.5% | −1.9 pp | 360 | 21.7% of games went to overtime, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.5% | 15.9% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.5% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.9% | 25.3% | +0.6 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.9% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.9% | 11.9% | −0.0 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.9% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.3% | +0.2 pp | 11,896 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 11,896 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.4 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Regular season, 3rd meeting of the season with the season series tied 1-1
- Baseline
- Other 3rd+ regular-season meetings
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.