NHL · All time: Myth checked
Birthday game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 30.5%
- Baseline
- 26.7%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 30.5% | 26.7% | +3.8 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.0% | 26.1% | −1.1 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 40.7% | 38.3% | +2.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 50.6% | 48.2% | +2.3 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 50.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 17.4% | 16.9% | +0.6 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.4% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 13.1% | 12.7% | +0.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 13.1% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.8 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 344 | Skaters averaged 1.8 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 17 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 17 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 7 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 17 | Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 51.9% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 51.9%
- Baseline
- 46.3%
- Sample
- 106 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 106 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 51.9% | 46.3% | +5.6 pp | 106 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 51.9% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 19.8% | 16.6% | +3.2 pp | 106 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 19.8% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 15.1% | 11.6% | +3.5 pp | 106 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 15.1% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.5% | 26.4% | −1.9 pp | 106 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.3% | +0.2 pp | 106 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.7% | 37.9% | +0.8 pp | 106 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.7% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.9 | 1.7 | +0.2 | 106 | Skaters averaged 1.9 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 30.5%
- Baseline
- 26.7%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 30.5% | 26.7% | +3.8 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.0% | 26.1% | −1.1 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 40.7% | 38.3% | +2.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 50.6% | 48.2% | +2.3 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 50.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 17.4% | 16.9% | +0.6 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.4% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 13.1% | 12.7% | +0.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 13.1% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.8 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 344 | Skaters averaged 1.8 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 30.5%
- Baseline
- 26.7%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 30.5% | 26.7% | +3.8 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.0% | 26.1% | −1.1 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 40.7% | 38.3% | +2.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 50.6% | 48.2% | +2.3 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 50.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 17.4% | 16.9% | +0.6 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.4% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 13.1% | 12.7% | +0.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 13.1% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.8 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 344 | Skaters averaged 1.8 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 30.5%
- Baseline
- 26.7%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 30.5% | 26.7% | +3.8 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 25.0% | 26.1% | −1.1 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 40.7% | 38.3% | +2.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.7% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 50.6% | 48.2% | +2.3 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 50.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 17.4% | 16.9% | +0.6 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.4% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 13.1% | 12.7% | +0.4 pp | 344 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 13.1% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.8 | 1.7 | +0.1 | 344 | Skaters averaged 1.8 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Game ET date month-day equals roster date of birth (ESPN NFL/NBA roster cache; NHL api-web roster). Only players on a 2026-27 roster have DOB (survivor sample)
- Baseline
- All other games of players with a known DOB
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.