NBA · All time: Explained by quality
On a 3+ game winning streak
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 60.1%
- Baseline
- 48.0%
- Sample
- 1,282 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,282 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 12 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 60.1% | 48.0% | +12.2 pp | 1,282 | Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.5% | 44.9% | +1.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.5% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.8% | 25.9% | +2.8 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.8% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.1% | 22.0% | +1.1 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.1% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.0% | 27.6% | +1.4 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.0% of games, vs 27.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 10.5% | 8.6% | +1.9 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.5% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.1% | 25.4% | +2.7 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.1% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 48.5% | 46.5% | +2.0 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 2+ threes in 48.5% of games, vs 46.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.3% | 12.7% | +2.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.3% of games, vs 12.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.8% | 26.5% | +1.3 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.8% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.2 | 14.7 | +0.5 | 8,452 | Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.9 | -0.8 | +4.7 | 1,282 | Average margin +3.9 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 2 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 116.3 | 113.6 | +2.7 | 1,282 | Teams scored 116.3 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 112.4 | 114.3 | −1.9 | 1,282 | Teams allowed 112.4 points a game, vs 114.3. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.5% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.2% | 8.7% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.7 | 227.9 | +0.8 | 1,282 | Teams averaged 228.7 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 46.4% of games, vs 47.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 46.4%
- Baseline
- 47.2%
- Sample
- 349 player-games
- Adjusted
- −5.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 349 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.4% | 47.2% | −0.8 pp | 349 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.4% of games, vs 47.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.4% | 25.5% | −1.1 pp | 349 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.4% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.8% | 27.2% | −3.4 pp | 349 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.8% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.7% | 41.1% | +3.6 pp | 349 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.7% of games, vs 41.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 9.5% | 11.2% | −1.7 pp | 349 | Players reached 10+ reb in 9.5% of games, vs 11.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.8% | 25.2% | +0.5 pp | 349 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.8% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.3% | 21.0% | −0.7 pp | 349 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.4% | 8.7% | −1.2 pp | 349 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.4% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.9% | 11.5% | +1.4 pp | 349 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.9% of games, vs 11.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.2% | 24.4% | +0.8 pp | 349 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.2% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.6% | 6.5% | +2.1 pp | 349 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.6% of games, vs 6.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.5 | 14.2 | +0.3 | 349 | Players averaged 14.5 pts, vs 14.2. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 52 | Too small to publish in this window: n=52 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 52 | Too small to publish in this window: n=52 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 52 | Too small to publish in this window: n=52 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 52 | Too small to publish in this window: n=52 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 52 | Too small to publish in this window: n=52 from 48 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 60.6% of games in this spot, vs 47.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 60.6%
- Baseline
- 47.9%
- Sample
- 411 team-games
- Adjusted
- +1.2 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 411 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 10 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 60.6% | 47.9% | +12.7 pp | 411 | Teams won 60.6% of games in this spot, vs 47.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.9% | 44.5% | +2.4 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.9% of games, vs 44.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 27.8% | 24.1% | +3.6 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.8% of games, vs 24.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.8% | 7.7% | +2.0 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.8% of games, vs 7.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.2% | 26.4% | +1.8 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.2% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 27.6% | 24.2% | +3.4 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 20+ pts in 27.6% of games, vs 24.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.3% | 11.9% | +2.4 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.3% of games, vs 11.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.9% | 21.0% | +1.9 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.9% of games, vs 21.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.2 | 14.5 | +0.7 | 2,723 | Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 4.0 | -0.8 | +4.8 | 411 | Average margin +4.0 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 2 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 117.0 | 114.6 | +2.4 | 411 | Teams scored 117.0 points a game, vs 114.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.0 | 115.4 | −2.4 | 411 | Teams allowed 113.0 points a game, vs 115.4. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.9% | 8.0% | +0.9 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.9% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.9% | 10.7% | +1.2 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.9% of games, vs 10.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.1% | 25.7% | +1.4 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.0% | 45.8% | +1.3 pp | 2,723 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.0% of games, vs 45.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 230.1 | 230.0 | +0.1 | 411 | Teams averaged 230.1 game total, vs 230.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 60.1%
- Baseline
- 48.0%
- Sample
- 1,282 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,282 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 12 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 60.1% | 48.0% | +12.2 pp | 1,282 | Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.5% | 44.9% | +1.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.5% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.8% | 25.9% | +2.8 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.8% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.1% | 22.0% | +1.1 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.1% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.0% | 27.6% | +1.4 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.0% of games, vs 27.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 10.5% | 8.6% | +1.9 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.5% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.1% | 25.4% | +2.7 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.1% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 48.5% | 46.5% | +2.0 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 2+ threes in 48.5% of games, vs 46.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.3% | 12.7% | +2.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.3% of games, vs 12.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.8% | 26.5% | +1.3 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.8% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.2 | 14.7 | +0.5 | 8,452 | Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.9 | -0.8 | +4.7 | 1,282 | Average margin +3.9 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 2 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 116.3 | 113.6 | +2.7 | 1,282 | Teams scored 116.3 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 112.4 | 114.3 | −1.9 | 1,282 | Teams allowed 112.4 points a game, vs 114.3. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.5% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.2% | 8.7% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.7 | 227.9 | +0.8 | 1,282 | Teams averaged 228.7 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 60.1%
- Baseline
- 48.0%
- Sample
- 1,282 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,282 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 12 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 60.1% | 48.0% | +12.2 pp | 1,282 | Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.5% | 44.9% | +1.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.5% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.8% | 25.9% | +2.8 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.8% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.1% | 22.0% | +1.1 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.1% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.0% | 27.6% | +1.4 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.0% of games, vs 27.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 10.5% | 8.6% | +1.9 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.5% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.1% | 25.4% | +2.7 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.1% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 48.5% | 46.5% | +2.0 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 2+ threes in 48.5% of games, vs 46.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.3% | 12.7% | +2.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.3% of games, vs 12.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.8% | 26.5% | +1.3 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.8% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.2 | 14.7 | +0.5 | 8,452 | Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.9 | -0.8 | +4.7 | 1,282 | Average margin +3.9 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 2 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 116.3 | 113.6 | +2.7 | 1,282 | Teams scored 116.3 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 112.4 | 114.3 | −1.9 | 1,282 | Teams allowed 112.4 points a game, vs 114.3. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.5% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.2% | 8.7% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.7 | 227.9 | +0.8 | 1,282 | Teams averaged 228.7 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 60.1%
- Baseline
- 48.0%
- Sample
- 1,282 team-games
- Adjusted
- +0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 1,282 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 12 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 60.1% | 48.0% | +12.2 pp | 1,282 | Teams won 60.1% of games in this spot, vs 48.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.5% | 44.9% | +1.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.5% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.8% | 25.9% | +2.8 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.8% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.1% | 22.0% | +1.1 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.1% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.0% | 27.6% | +1.4 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.0% of games, vs 27.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 10.5% | 8.6% | +1.9 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.5% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.1% | 25.4% | +2.7 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.1% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 48.5% | 46.5% | +2.0 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 2+ threes in 48.5% of games, vs 46.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.3% | 12.7% | +2.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.3% of games, vs 12.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.8% | 26.5% | +1.3 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.8% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.2 | 14.7 | +0.5 | 8,452 | Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.9 | -0.8 | +4.7 | 1,282 | Average margin +3.9 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 2 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 116.3 | 113.6 | +2.7 | 1,282 | Teams scored 116.3 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 112.4 | 114.3 | −1.9 | 1,282 | Teams allowed 112.4 points a game, vs 114.3. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.5% | 12.0% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.5% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.2% | 8.7% | +0.5 pp | 8,452 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.7 | 227.9 | +0.8 | 1,282 | Teams averaged 228.7 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Won each of the last 3+ games this season
- Baseline
- Other team-games with 3+ prior games this season
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.