NBA · All time: Myth checked

First game of a road trip

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 45.1%
Baseline: 45.4%
Sample: 1,799 team-games
Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,799 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.1%	45.4%	−0.3 pp	1,799	Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.8%	25.7%	−0.9 pp	11,993	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.8% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.1%	21.6%	+0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.8%	26.3%	−0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.4%	25.8%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.4% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.9%	8.9%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.9% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	44.4%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.8%	13.1%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	8.4%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.0%	12.1%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.0%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.0% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.2%	46.2%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	-2.1	+0.4	1,799	Average margin −1.7 vs −2.1 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.7	−0.1	11,993	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.0	113.1	−0.1	1,799	Teams scored 113.0 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.7	115.3	−0.5	1,799	Teams allowed 114.7 points a game, vs 115.3. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	228.4	−0.6	1,799	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 228.4. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 27.6%
Baseline: 25.8%
Sample: 508 player-games
Adjusted: +4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 508 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.6%	25.8%	+1.7 pp	508	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.2%	21.0%	+1.2 pp	508	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.2% of games, vs 21.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.8%	24.5%	+1.3 pp	508	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.8% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.5%	42.4%	+1.1 pp	508	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.5% of games, vs 42.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.9%	9.6%	−2.7 pp	508	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.9% of games, vs 9.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	49.2%	47.8%	+1.4 pp	508	Players reached 2+ threes in 49.2% of games, vs 47.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.6%	27.0%	−2.4 pp	508	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.6% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	10.2%	11.8%	−1.5 pp	508	Players reached 25+ pts in 10.2% of games, vs 11.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.4%	11.8%	−1.3 pp	508	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.4% of games, vs 11.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.5%	6.9%	−0.4 pp	508	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.5% of games, vs 6.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	25.2%	26.0%	−0.8 pp	508	Players reached 5+ ast in 25.2% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.3	+0.2	508	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.3. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	76	Too small to publish in this window: n=76 from 76 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	76	Too small to publish in this window: n=76 from 76 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	76	Too small to publish in this window: n=76 from 76 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	76	Too small to publish in this window: n=76 from 76 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	76	Too small to publish in this window: n=76 from 76 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 44.9% of games in this spot, vs 44.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 44.9%
Baseline: 44.4%
Sample: 588 team-games
Adjusted: −0.1 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 588 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	44.9%	44.4%	+0.5 pp	588	Teams won 44.9% of games in this spot, vs 44.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.6%	11.8%	−1.1 pp	3,979	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.6% of games, vs 11.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	24.8%	26.3%	−1.5 pp	3,979	Players reached 3+ threes in 24.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.7%	21.7%	−0.9 pp	3,979	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.7% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.8%	25.1%	−1.3 pp	3,979	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.8% of games, vs 25.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.5%	44.9%	−1.4 pp	3,979	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.5% of games, vs 44.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.9%	24.8%	−0.9 pp	3,979	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.9% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.0%	45.7%	−0.8 pp	3,979	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.0% of games, vs 45.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.0%	8.5%	−0.5 pp	3,979	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.0% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.4%	12.7%	−0.3 pp	3,979	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.4% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.7%	7.7%	−0.0 pp	3,979	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 7.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.4%	26.3%	+0.1 pp	3,979	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.4% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.5	14.7	−0.2	3,979	Players averaged 14.5 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	-1.8	+0.1	588	Average margin −1.7 vs −1.8 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.8	114.5	−0.8	588	Teams scored 113.8 points a game, vs 114.5. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.5	116.3	−0.9	588	Teams allowed 115.5 points a game, vs 116.3. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.2	230.9	−1.6	588	Teams averaged 229.2 game total, vs 230.9. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 45.1%
Baseline: 45.4%
Sample: 1,799 team-games
Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,799 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.1%	45.4%	−0.3 pp	1,799	Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.8%	25.7%	−0.9 pp	11,993	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.8% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.1%	21.6%	+0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.8%	26.3%	−0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.4%	25.8%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.4% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.9%	8.9%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.9% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	44.4%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.8%	13.1%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	8.4%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.0%	12.1%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.0%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.0% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.2%	46.2%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	-2.1	+0.4	1,799	Average margin −1.7 vs −2.1 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.7	−0.1	11,993	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.0	113.1	−0.1	1,799	Teams scored 113.0 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.7	115.3	−0.5	1,799	Teams allowed 114.7 points a game, vs 115.3. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	228.4	−0.6	1,799	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 228.4. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 45.1%
Baseline: 45.4%
Sample: 1,799 team-games
Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,799 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.1%	45.4%	−0.3 pp	1,799	Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.8%	25.7%	−0.9 pp	11,993	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.8% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.1%	21.6%	+0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.8%	26.3%	−0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.4%	25.8%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.4% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.9%	8.9%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.9% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	44.4%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.8%	13.1%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	8.4%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.0%	12.1%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.0%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.0% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.2%	46.2%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	-2.1	+0.4	1,799	Average margin −1.7 vs −2.1 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.7	−0.1	11,993	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.0	113.1	−0.1	1,799	Teams scored 113.0 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.7	115.3	−0.5	1,799	Teams allowed 114.7 points a game, vs 115.3. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	228.4	−0.6	1,799	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 228.4. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 45.1%
Baseline: 45.4%
Sample: 1,799 team-games
Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,799 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.1%	45.4%	−0.3 pp	1,799	Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.8%	25.7%	−0.9 pp	11,993	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.8% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.1%	21.6%	+0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.8%	26.3%	−0.5 pp	11,993	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.4%	25.8%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.4% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.9%	8.9%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.9% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	44.4%	−0.4 pp	11,993	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.8%	13.1%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	8.4%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.0%	12.1%	−0.1 pp	11,993	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.0%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	11,993	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.0% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.2%	46.2%	−0.0 pp	11,993	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	-2.1	+0.4	1,799	Average margin −1.7 vs −2.1 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.7	−0.1	11,993	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.0	113.1	−0.1	1,799	Teams scored 113.0 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.7	115.3	−0.5	1,799	Teams allowed 114.7 points a game, vs 115.3. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	228.4	−0.6	1,799	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 228.4. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(0.9 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Away game after a home game
Baseline: Other AWAY team-games (removes home-court/ice edge)
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.