NBA · All time: Edge

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pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 45.8%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 1,372 team-games
Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,372 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.8%	50.9%	−5.0 pp	1,372	Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	0.4	−2.1	1,372	Average margin −1.7 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −2.4 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.6%	26.1%	−1.5 pp	9,241	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.2%	12.3%	−1.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.2% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.9%	26.7%	−1.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.9% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.4%	45.6%	−2.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.4% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.4%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.4% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.2%	22.5%	−1.2 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.2% of games, vs 22.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.1%	8.8%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.7%	28.0%	−1.3 pp	9,241	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	9,241	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.1	113.8	+1.3	1,372	Teams allowed 115.1 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.6%	13.2%	−0.6 pp	9,241	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.6% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.0%	47.0%	−1.0 pp	9,241	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.8 pp	9,241	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,372	Teams scored 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.5	1,372	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 44.9% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 44.9%
Baseline: 48.2%
Sample: 412 player-games
Adjusted: −4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 412 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	44.9%	48.2%	−3.3 pp	412	Players reached 2+ threes in 44.9% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.0%	26.7%	−1.7 pp	412	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.0% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	24.8%	26.0%	−1.2 pp	412	Players reached 5+ ast in 24.8% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	19.2%	21.7%	−2.5 pp	412	Players reached 8+ reb in 19.2% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	8.7%	11.4%	−2.7 pp	412	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.7% of games, vs 11.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.8%	8.4%	−0.7 pp	412	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.8% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	5.6%	7.1%	−1.5 pp	412	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 5.6% of games, vs 7.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	22.6%	25.3%	−2.7 pp	412	Players reached 20+ pts in 22.6% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	10.7%	11.6%	−1.0 pp	412	Players reached 25+ pts in 10.7% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	40.8%	43.3%	−2.5 pp	412	Players reached 15+ pts in 40.8% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.5%	25.9%	−2.4 pp	412	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.5% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.2	14.4	−0.2	412	Players averaged 14.2 pts, vs 14.4. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 47 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 47 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 47 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 47 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 47 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 10+ reb in 9.6% of games, vs 11.2%. Adjusted: −1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 9.6%
Baseline: 11.2%
Sample: 3,046 player-games
Adjusted: −1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 3,046 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 10+ reb: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	9.6%	11.2%	−1.7 pp	3,046	Players reached 10+ reb in 9.6% of games, vs 11.2%. Adjusted: −1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.1%	8.4%	−1.3 pp	3,046	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.1% of games, vs 8.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	22.8%	25.1%	−2.3 pp	3,046	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 22.8% of games, vs 25.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.0%	25.1%	−2.1 pp	3,046	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.0% of games, vs 25.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 13 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	48.3%	50.4%	−2.1 pp	441	Teams won 48.3% of games in this spot, vs 50.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.0%	+0.0 pp	3,046	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.3%	45.2%	−1.9 pp	3,046	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.8%	12.5%	−0.7 pp	3,046	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.6%	8.2%	−0.6 pp	3,046	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.6% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.4%	46.1%	−0.7 pp	3,046	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.4% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	25.9%	26.9%	−0.9 pp	3,046	Players reached 5+ ast in 25.9% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.3%	21.5%	−1.2 pp	3,046	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.2	0.2	−1.4	441	Average margin −1.2 vs +0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.7	−0.3	3,046	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.9	114.9	+1.0	441	Teams allowed 115.9 points a game, vs 114.9. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	114.8	115.1	−0.4	441	Teams scored 114.8 points a game, vs 115.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	230.7	230.0	+0.7	441	Teams averaged 230.7 game total, vs 230.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 45.8%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 1,372 team-games
Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,372 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.8%	50.9%	−5.0 pp	1,372	Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	0.4	−2.1	1,372	Average margin −1.7 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −2.4 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.6%	26.1%	−1.5 pp	9,241	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.2%	12.3%	−1.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.2% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.9%	26.7%	−1.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.9% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.4%	45.6%	−2.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.4% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.4%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.4% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.2%	22.5%	−1.2 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.2% of games, vs 22.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.1%	8.8%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.7%	28.0%	−1.3 pp	9,241	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	9,241	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.1	113.8	+1.3	1,372	Teams allowed 115.1 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.6%	13.2%	−0.6 pp	9,241	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.6% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.0%	47.0%	−1.0 pp	9,241	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.8 pp	9,241	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,372	Teams scored 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.5	1,372	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 45.8%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 1,372 team-games
Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,372 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.8%	50.9%	−5.0 pp	1,372	Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	0.4	−2.1	1,372	Average margin −1.7 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −2.4 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.6%	26.1%	−1.5 pp	9,241	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.2%	12.3%	−1.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.2% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.9%	26.7%	−1.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.9% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.4%	45.6%	−2.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.4% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.4%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.4% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.2%	22.5%	−1.2 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.2% of games, vs 22.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.1%	8.8%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.7%	28.0%	−1.3 pp	9,241	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	9,241	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.1	113.8	+1.3	1,372	Teams allowed 115.1 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.6%	13.2%	−0.6 pp	9,241	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.6% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.0%	47.0%	−1.0 pp	9,241	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.8 pp	9,241	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,372	Teams scored 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.5	1,372	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 45.8%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 1,372 team-games
Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,372 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.8%	50.9%	−5.0 pp	1,372	Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.7	0.4	−2.1	1,372	Average margin −1.7 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −2.4 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.6%	26.1%	−1.5 pp	9,241	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.2%	12.3%	−1.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.2% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.9%	26.7%	−1.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.9% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.4%	45.6%	−2.1 pp	9,241	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.4% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.4%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.4% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.2%	22.5%	−1.2 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.2% of games, vs 22.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.1%	8.8%	−0.7 pp	9,241	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.7%	28.0%	−1.3 pp	9,241	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	9,241	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.1	113.8	+1.3	1,372	Teams allowed 115.1 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.6%	13.2%	−0.6 pp	9,241	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.6% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.0%	47.0%	−1.0 pp	9,241	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 47.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.8 pp	9,241	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,372	Teams scored 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.5	1,372	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Played the previous calendar day")
Baseline: Team-games with 1+ day of rest
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.