NBA · All time: Explained by quality

After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 41.1% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 41.1%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 849 team-games
Adjusted: −0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 849 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.1%	51.1%	−10.0 pp	849	Teams won 41.1% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	26.5%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.7%	25.9%	−1.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.7% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	45.3%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.2%	−1.0 pp	5,723	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.0%	9.0%	−1.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.0% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.1	0.4	−3.5	849	Average margin −3.1 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.8	−0.3	5,723	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.1	114.2	−1.1	849	Teams scored 113.1 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.2	113.8	+2.4	849	Teams allowed 116.2 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.3%	26.7%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.3% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.4%	27.9%	−0.5 pp	5,723	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.4% of games, vs 27.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.6%	8.7%	−0.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.6%	22.3%	−0.8 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.2%	−0.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.3	228.0	+1.4	849	Teams averaged 229.3 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 50.6% of games, vs 47.1%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 50.6%
Baseline: 47.1%
Sample: 267 player-games
Adjusted: +6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 267 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	50.6%	47.1%	+3.5 pp	267	Players reached 2+ threes in 50.6% of games, vs 47.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	29.2%	25.9%	+3.3 pp	267	Players reached 3+ threes in 29.2% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.6%	24.5%	+2.1 pp	267	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.6% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	26.6%	25.3%	+1.3 pp	267	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.6% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.1%	11.2%	+1.9 pp	267	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.1% of games, vs 11.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.5%	6.7%	+0.8 pp	267	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.5% of games, vs 6.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	42.3%	42.9%	−0.5 pp	267	Players reached 15+ pts in 42.3% of games, vs 42.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.2%	21.3%	−1.1 pp	267	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.2% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.5%	10.9%	−0.4 pp	267	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.5% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	23.6%	26.0%	−2.4 pp	267	Players reached 5+ ast in 23.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.9%	8.4%	−0.5 pp	267	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.9% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.3	+0.1	267	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.3. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	40	Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 38 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	40	Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 38 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	40	Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 38 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	40	Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 38 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	40	Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 38 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 42.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 42.2%
Baseline: 51.0%
Sample: 289 team-games
Adjusted: +0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 289 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	42.2%	51.0%	−8.8 pp	289	Teams won 42.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-2.8	0.4	−3.1	289	Average margin −2.8 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	117.9	114.7	+3.1	289	Teams allowed 117.9 points a game, vs 114.7. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.9%	24.9%	−1.0 pp	1,993	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.9% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.8%	26.7%	+0.1 pp	1,993	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.8% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.9%	45.0%	−1.2 pp	1,993	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.9% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.3%	24.9%	−1.6 pp	1,993	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.3% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.7%	26.0%	−0.3 pp	1,993	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	46.0%	−0.4 pp	1,993	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.8%	8.2%	−0.3 pp	1,993	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.8% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.7%	11.0%	−0.3 pp	1,993	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.7% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.6%	21.4%	−0.8 pp	1,993	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.6% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.2%	12.5%	−1.2 pp	1,993	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.2% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.0%	8.3%	−1.3 pp	1,993	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.0% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.7	−0.3	1,993	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.1	115.1	−0.0	289	Teams scored 115.1 points a game, vs 115.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	232.9	229.8	+3.1	289	Teams averaged 232.9 game total, vs 229.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 41.1%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 849 team-games
Adjusted: −0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 849 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.1%	51.1%	−10.0 pp	849	Teams won 41.1% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	26.5%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.7%	25.9%	−1.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.7% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	45.3%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.2%	−1.0 pp	5,723	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.0%	9.0%	−1.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.0% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.1	0.4	−3.5	849	Average margin −3.1 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.8	−0.3	5,723	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.1	114.2	−1.1	849	Teams scored 113.1 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.2	113.8	+2.4	849	Teams allowed 116.2 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.3%	26.7%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.3% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.4%	27.9%	−0.5 pp	5,723	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.4% of games, vs 27.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.6%	8.7%	−0.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.6%	22.3%	−0.8 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.2%	−0.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.3	228.0	+1.4	849	Teams averaged 229.3 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 41.1%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 849 team-games
Adjusted: −0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 849 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.1%	51.1%	−10.0 pp	849	Teams won 41.1% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	26.5%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.7%	25.9%	−1.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.7% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	45.3%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.2%	−1.0 pp	5,723	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.0%	9.0%	−1.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.0% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.1	0.4	−3.5	849	Average margin −3.1 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.8	−0.3	5,723	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.1	114.2	−1.1	849	Teams scored 113.1 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.2	113.8	+2.4	849	Teams allowed 116.2 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.3%	26.7%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.3% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.4%	27.9%	−0.5 pp	5,723	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.4% of games, vs 27.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.6%	8.7%	−0.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.6%	22.3%	−0.8 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.2%	−0.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.3	228.0	+1.4	849	Teams averaged 229.3 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 41.1%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 849 team-games
Adjusted: −0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 849 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.1%	51.1%	−10.0 pp	849	Teams won 41.1% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	26.5%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 26.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.7%	25.9%	−1.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.7% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.0%	45.3%	−1.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.2%	−1.0 pp	5,723	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.0%	9.0%	−1.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.0% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.1	0.4	−3.5	849	Average margin −3.1 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.8	−0.3	5,723	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.1	114.2	−1.1	849	Teams scored 113.1 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.2	113.8	+2.4	849	Teams allowed 116.2 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.3%	26.7%	−0.4 pp	5,723	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.3% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.4%	27.9%	−0.5 pp	5,723	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.4% of games, vs 27.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.6%	8.7%	−0.1 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.6%	22.3%	−0.8 pp	5,723	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.2%	−0.3 pp	5,723	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.3	228.0	+1.4	849	Teams averaged 229.3 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) lost by 17+ NFL / 20+ NBA / 3+ NHL
Baseline: Other team-games with a scored previous game
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.