NBA · All time: Explained by quality

Revenge: lost the last meeting

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 41.8% of games in this spot, vs 58.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 41.8%
Baseline: 58.2%
Sample: 3,642 team-games
Adjusted: −0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 3,642 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.8%	58.2%	−16.4 pp	3,642	Teams won 41.8% of games in this spot, vs 58.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	27.2%	−2.1 pp	24,214	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 27.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.1%	28.3%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.1% of games, vs 28.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.5%	45.8%	−1.4 pp	24,214	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.5% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.8%	22.8%	−1.0 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.7%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.9%	26.4%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.9% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.4%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.2%	9.4%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-2.7	2.7	−5.3	3,642	Average margin −2.7 vs +2.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	24,214	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.6	115.2	−2.7	3,642	Teams scored 112.6 points a game, vs 115.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.2	112.6	+2.7	3,642	Teams allowed 115.2 points a game, vs 112.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	47.3%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	27.0%	−0.6 pp	24,214	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	227.8	+0.0	3,642	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 22.5% of games, vs 27.3%. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 22.5%
Baseline: 27.3%
Sample: 1,125 player-games
Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,125 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 20+ pts: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	22.5%	27.3%	−4.8 pp	1,125	Players reached 20+ pts in 22.5% of games, vs 27.3%. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	40.7%	45.2%	−4.5 pp	1,125	Players reached 15+ pts in 40.7% of games, vs 45.2%. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	22.8%	28.2%	−5.4 pp	1,125	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 22.8% of games, vs 28.2%. Adjusted: −4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	13.9	14.8	−1.0	1,125	Players averaged 13.9 pts, vs 14.8. Adjusted: −0.5 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	9.6%	13.2%	−3.6 pp	1,125	Players reached 25+ pts in 9.6% of games, vs 13.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	5.5%	8.0%	−2.5 pp	1,125	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 5.5% of games, vs 8.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	19.5%	22.6%	−3.1 pp	1,125	Players reached 8+ reb in 19.5% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	9.5%	12.1%	−2.6 pp	1,125	Players reached 10+ reb in 9.5% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.6%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	1,125	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.6% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	24.5%	26.7%	−2.2 pp	1,125	Players reached 5+ ast in 24.5% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.4%	26.0%	−0.5 pp	1,125	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.4% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.6%	8.7%	−1.0 pp	1,125	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.6% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	170	Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 170 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	170	Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 170 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	170	Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 170 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	170	Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 170 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	170	Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 170 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 5+ ast in 25.9% of games, vs 27.5%. Adjusted: −1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 25.9%
Baseline: 27.5%
Sample: 8,786 player-games
Adjusted: −1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 8,786 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 5+ ast: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	25.9%	27.5%	−1.6 pp	8,786	Players reached 5+ ast in 25.9% of games, vs 27.5%. Adjusted: −1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.4%	22.2%	−1.8 pp	8,786	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.4% of games, vs 22.2%. Adjusted: −1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	43.0%	57.0%	−14.0 pp	1,296	Teams won 43.0% of games in this spot, vs 57.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.7%	25.7%	−2.0 pp	8,786	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.7% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.9%	25.6%	−1.7 pp	8,786	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.9% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.4%	11.4%	−1.0 pp	8,786	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.4% of games, vs 11.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.5%	8.8%	−1.4 pp	8,786	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.5% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.8%	12.9%	−1.2 pp	8,786	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.8	−0.4	8,786	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-2.7	2.7	−5.3	1,296	Average margin −2.7 vs +2.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.8	116.5	−2.7	1,296	Teams scored 113.8 points a game, vs 116.5. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.5	113.8	+2.7	1,296	Teams allowed 116.5 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.2%	45.6%	−1.4 pp	8,786	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.2% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	46.2%	−0.4 pp	8,786	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.7%	8.5%	−0.8 pp	8,786	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.5%	26.4%	−0.8 pp	8,786	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.5% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	230.3	230.3	+0.0	1,296	Teams averaged 230.3 game total, vs 230.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 41.8%
Baseline: 58.2%
Sample: 3,642 team-games
Adjusted: −0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 3,642 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.8%	58.2%	−16.4 pp	3,642	Teams won 41.8% of games in this spot, vs 58.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	27.2%	−2.1 pp	24,214	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 27.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.1%	28.3%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.1% of games, vs 28.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.5%	45.8%	−1.4 pp	24,214	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.5% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.8%	22.8%	−1.0 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.7%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.9%	26.4%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.9% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.4%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.2%	9.4%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-2.7	2.7	−5.3	3,642	Average margin −2.7 vs +2.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	24,214	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.6	115.2	−2.7	3,642	Teams scored 112.6 points a game, vs 115.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.2	112.6	+2.7	3,642	Teams allowed 115.2 points a game, vs 112.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	47.3%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	27.0%	−0.6 pp	24,214	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	227.8	+0.0	3,642	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 41.8%
Baseline: 58.2%
Sample: 3,642 team-games
Adjusted: −0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 3,642 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.8%	58.2%	−16.4 pp	3,642	Teams won 41.8% of games in this spot, vs 58.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	27.2%	−2.1 pp	24,214	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 27.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.1%	28.3%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.1% of games, vs 28.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.5%	45.8%	−1.4 pp	24,214	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.5% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.8%	22.8%	−1.0 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.7%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.9%	26.4%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.9% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.4%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.2%	9.4%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-2.7	2.7	−5.3	3,642	Average margin −2.7 vs +2.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	24,214	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.6	115.2	−2.7	3,642	Teams scored 112.6 points a game, vs 115.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.2	112.6	+2.7	3,642	Teams allowed 115.2 points a game, vs 112.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	47.3%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	27.0%	−0.6 pp	24,214	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	227.8	+0.0	3,642	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 41.8%
Baseline: 58.2%
Sample: 3,642 team-games
Adjusted: −0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 3,642 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 12 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	41.8%	58.2%	−16.4 pp	3,642	Teams won 41.8% of games in this spot, vs 58.2% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.1%	27.2%	−2.1 pp	24,214	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.1% of games, vs 27.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.1%	28.3%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.1% of games, vs 28.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.5%	45.8%	−1.4 pp	24,214	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.5% of games, vs 45.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.8%	22.8%	−1.0 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	13.7%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 13.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.9%	26.4%	−1.5 pp	24,214	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.9% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	9.0%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.4%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.2%	9.4%	−1.3 pp	24,214	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-2.7	2.7	−5.3	3,642	Average margin −2.7 vs +2.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.9	−0.3	24,214	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.6	115.2	−2.7	3,642	Teams scored 112.6 points a game, vs 115.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	115.2	112.6	+2.7	3,642	Teams allowed 115.2 points a game, vs 112.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.5%	47.3%	−0.7 pp	24,214	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.5% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	27.0%	−0.6 pp	24,214	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	227.8	+0.0	3,642	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(2.3 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Lost the most recent previous meeting with this opponent (within 400 days, any stored season)
Baseline: Team-games where the team won the last meeting
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.