NBA · All time: Explained by quality
Eastern team playing in Pacific time
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.3%
- Baseline
- 8.9%
- Sample
- 1,375 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,375 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.3% | 8.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.9% | 45.4% | −2.6 pp | 203 | Teams won 42.9% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.3% | 21.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.3% | +0.5 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.4% | 12.0% | −0.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.4% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.7% | 26.0% | +0.7 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 42.7% | 44.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 42.7% of games, vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.0% | 46.1% | −0.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.7% | 25.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.7% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.9% | 13.0% | −1.2 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.9% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.2% | 27.2% | −1.0 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.2% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 24.6% | 25.7% | −1.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.6% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -2.8 | -1.9 | −0.9 | 203 | Average margin −2.8 vs −1.9 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.4 | 14.7 | −0.3 | 1,375 | Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.8 | 113.1 | −0.3 | 203 | Teams scored 112.8 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 115.6 | 115.0 | +0.6 | 203 | Teams allowed 115.6 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.5 | 228.1 | +0.3 | 203 | Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.1. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 8 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 8 team-games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 8 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 17 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 8 | Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 8 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 8 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 8 | Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 8 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 8 | Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 8 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 8 | Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 8 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 8 | Too small to publish in this window: n=8 from 8 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 8+ reb in 18.8% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 18.8%
- Baseline
- 21.4%
- Sample
- 437 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 437 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 18.8% | 21.4% | −2.6 pp | 437 | Players reached 8+ reb in 18.8% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 42.3% | 45.4% | −3.1 pp | 437 | Players reached 2+ threes in 42.3% of games, vs 45.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.9% | 26.2% | +1.7 pp | 437 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.9% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.2% | 7.6% | +1.5 pp | 437 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 7.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.1% | 25.7% | −2.6 pp | 437 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.3% | 11.3% | −1.0 pp | 437 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.3% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 41.6% | 44.4% | −2.7 pp | 437 | Players reached 15+ pts in 41.6% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 23.3% | 24.4% | −1.1 pp | 437 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.3% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.4% | 12.6% | −0.2 pp | 437 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.4% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.2% | 8.4% | −0.1 pp | 437 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.6% | 24.6% | −1.0 pp | 437 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.6% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.2 | 14.6 | −0.4 | 437 | Players averaged 14.2 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 65 | Too small to publish in this window: n=65 from 65 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 65 | Too small to publish in this window: n=65 from 65 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 65 | Too small to publish in this window: n=65 from 65 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 65 | Too small to publish in this window: n=65 from 65 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 65 | Too small to publish in this window: n=65 from 65 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.3%
- Baseline
- 8.9%
- Sample
- 1,375 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,375 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.3% | 8.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.9% | 45.4% | −2.6 pp | 203 | Teams won 42.9% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.3% | 21.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.3% | +0.5 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.4% | 12.0% | −0.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.4% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.7% | 26.0% | +0.7 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 42.7% | 44.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 42.7% of games, vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.0% | 46.1% | −0.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.7% | 25.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.7% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.9% | 13.0% | −1.2 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.9% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.2% | 27.2% | −1.0 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.2% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 24.6% | 25.7% | −1.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.6% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -2.8 | -1.9 | −0.9 | 203 | Average margin −2.8 vs −1.9 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.4 | 14.7 | −0.3 | 1,375 | Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.8 | 113.1 | −0.3 | 203 | Teams scored 112.8 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 115.6 | 115.0 | +0.6 | 203 | Teams allowed 115.6 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.5 | 228.1 | +0.3 | 203 | Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.1. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.3%
- Baseline
- 8.9%
- Sample
- 1,375 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,375 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.3% | 8.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.9% | 45.4% | −2.6 pp | 203 | Teams won 42.9% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.3% | 21.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.3% | +0.5 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.4% | 12.0% | −0.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.4% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.7% | 26.0% | +0.7 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 42.7% | 44.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 42.7% of games, vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.0% | 46.1% | −0.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.7% | 25.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.7% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.9% | 13.0% | −1.2 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.9% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.2% | 27.2% | −1.0 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.2% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 24.6% | 25.7% | −1.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.6% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -2.8 | -1.9 | −0.9 | 203 | Average margin −2.8 vs −1.9 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.4 | 14.7 | −0.3 | 1,375 | Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.8 | 113.1 | −0.3 | 203 | Teams scored 112.8 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 115.6 | 115.0 | +0.6 | 203 | Teams allowed 115.6 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.5 | 228.1 | +0.3 | 203 | Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.1. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.3%
- Baseline
- 8.9%
- Sample
- 1,375 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,375 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.3% | 8.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 16 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 42.9% | 45.4% | −2.6 pp | 203 | Teams won 42.9% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.3% | 21.9% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.3% | +0.5 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.4% | 12.0% | −0.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.4% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.7% | 26.0% | +0.7 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 42.7% | 44.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 42.7% of games, vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.0% | 46.1% | −0.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.7% | 25.3% | −1.6 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.7% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.9% | 13.0% | −1.2 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.9% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.2% | 27.2% | −1.0 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.2% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 24.6% | 25.7% | −1.1 pp | 1,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.6% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -2.8 | -1.9 | −0.9 | 203 | Average margin −2.8 vs −1.9 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.4 | 14.7 | −0.3 | 1,375 | Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.8 | 113.1 | −0.3 | 203 | Teams scored 112.8 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 115.6 | 115.0 | +0.6 | 203 | Teams allowed 115.6 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.5 | 228.1 | +0.3 | 203 | Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.1. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.1 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Eastern-time team road game at a Pacific-time home team
- Baseline
- Other domestic road team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.