NBA · All time: Explained by quality

On a 3+ game losing streak

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 35.7% of games in this spot, vs 52.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 35.7%
Baseline: 52.7%
Sample: 1,263 team-games
Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,263 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 13 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.7%	52.7%	−17.0 pp	1,263	Teams won 35.7% of games in this spot, vs 52.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.5%	45.5%	−2.0 pp	8,531	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.5% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.4%	26.3%	−2.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	47.1%	−1.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 47.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	28.1%	−1.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 28.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.2%	27.0%	−3.8 pp	8,531	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.2% of games, vs 27.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.0%	13.5%	−2.6 pp	8,531	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.0% of games, vs 13.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.8%	9.3%	−2.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.8% of games, vs 9.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.0%	12.3%	−1.4 pp	8,531	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.0% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.7 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.3%	22.6%	−2.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 22.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.3	14.9	−0.6	8,531	Players averaged 14.3 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.0	1.0	−6.0	1,263	Average margin −5.0 vs +1.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.1	114.4	−2.3	1,263	Teams scored 112.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	117.1	113.4	+3.7	1,263	Teams allowed 117.1 points a game, vs 113.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.2	227.8	+1.4	1,263	Teams averaged 229.2 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 10+ reb in 7.8% of games, vs 11.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 7.8%
Baseline: 11.6%
Sample: 346 player-games
Adjusted: −1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 346 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	7.8%	11.6%	−3.8 pp	346	Players reached 10+ reb in 7.8% of games, vs 11.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.7%	24.8%	−1.1 pp	346	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.7% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.0%	25.7%	−1.7 pp	346	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.0% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.6%	−0.6 pp	346	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.1%	9.0%	−3.0 pp	346	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	47.4%	−1.7 pp	346	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 47.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	40.2%	42.3%	−2.2 pp	346	Players reached 15+ pts in 40.2% of games, vs 42.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	22.3%	26.0%	−3.8 pp	346	Players reached 5+ ast in 22.3% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	17.6%	21.7%	−4.1 pp	346	Players reached 8+ reb in 17.6% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	9.5%	12.4%	−2.9 pp	346	Players reached 25+ pts in 9.5% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	4.9%	7.5%	−2.6 pp	346	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.9% of games, vs 7.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	13.6	14.4	−0.8	346	Players averaged 13.6 pts, vs 14.4. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	53	Too small to publish in this window: n=53 from 50 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	53	Too small to publish in this window: n=53 from 50 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	53	Too small to publish in this window: n=53 from 50 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	53	Too small to publish in this window: n=53 from 50 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	53	Too small to publish in this window: n=53 from 50 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 32.9% of games in this spot, vs 53.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 32.9%
Baseline: 53.2%
Sample: 410 team-games
Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 410 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	32.9%	53.2%	−20.3 pp	410	Teams won 32.9% of games in this spot, vs 53.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	22.6%	25.1%	−2.6 pp	2,841	Players reached 20+ pts in 22.6% of games, vs 25.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.5%	8.4%	−1.8 pp	2,841	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.5% of games, vs 8.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	10.4%	12.7%	−2.3 pp	2,841	Players reached 25+ pts in 10.4% of games, vs 12.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	18.7%	21.8%	−3.2 pp	2,841	Players reached 8+ reb in 18.7% of games, vs 21.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	20.6%	25.5%	−4.9 pp	2,841	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 20.6% of games, vs 25.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	9.5%	11.2%	−1.7 pp	2,841	Players reached 10+ reb in 9.5% of games, vs 11.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.5%	8.4%	−1.9 pp	2,841	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.5% of games, vs 8.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.1	14.7	−0.6	2,841	Players averaged 14.1 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.4	1.0	−6.4	410	Average margin −5.4 vs +1.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	120.0	114.0	+5.9	410	Teams allowed 120.0 points a game, vs 114.0. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	234.6	229.1	+5.5	410	Teams averaged 234.6 game total, vs 229.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.3%	45.2%	−1.8 pp	2,841	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	25.9%	26.8%	−0.9 pp	2,841	Players reached 5+ ast in 25.9% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	44.8%	46.2%	−1.3 pp	2,841	Players reached 2+ threes in 44.8% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	24.4%	26.2%	−1.9 pp	2,841	Players reached 3+ threes in 24.4% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	114.6	115.1	−0.5	410	Teams scored 114.6 points a game, vs 115.1. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 35.7%
Baseline: 52.7%
Sample: 1,263 team-games
Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,263 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 13 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.7%	52.7%	−17.0 pp	1,263	Teams won 35.7% of games in this spot, vs 52.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.5%	45.5%	−2.0 pp	8,531	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.5% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.4%	26.3%	−2.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	47.1%	−1.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 47.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	28.1%	−1.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 28.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.2%	27.0%	−3.8 pp	8,531	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.2% of games, vs 27.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.0%	13.5%	−2.6 pp	8,531	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.0% of games, vs 13.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.8%	9.3%	−2.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.8% of games, vs 9.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.0%	12.3%	−1.4 pp	8,531	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.0% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.7 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.3%	22.6%	−2.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 22.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.3	14.9	−0.6	8,531	Players averaged 14.3 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.0	1.0	−6.0	1,263	Average margin −5.0 vs +1.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.1	114.4	−2.3	1,263	Teams scored 112.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	117.1	113.4	+3.7	1,263	Teams allowed 117.1 points a game, vs 113.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.2	227.8	+1.4	1,263	Teams averaged 229.2 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 35.7%
Baseline: 52.7%
Sample: 1,263 team-games
Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,263 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 13 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.7%	52.7%	−17.0 pp	1,263	Teams won 35.7% of games in this spot, vs 52.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.5%	45.5%	−2.0 pp	8,531	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.5% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.4%	26.3%	−2.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	47.1%	−1.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 47.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	28.1%	−1.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 28.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.2%	27.0%	−3.8 pp	8,531	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.2% of games, vs 27.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.0%	13.5%	−2.6 pp	8,531	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.0% of games, vs 13.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.8%	9.3%	−2.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.8% of games, vs 9.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.0%	12.3%	−1.4 pp	8,531	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.0% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.7 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.3%	22.6%	−2.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 22.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.3	14.9	−0.6	8,531	Players averaged 14.3 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.0	1.0	−6.0	1,263	Average margin −5.0 vs +1.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.1	114.4	−2.3	1,263	Teams scored 112.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	117.1	113.4	+3.7	1,263	Teams allowed 117.1 points a game, vs 113.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.2	227.8	+1.4	1,263	Teams averaged 229.2 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 35.7%
Baseline: 52.7%
Sample: 1,263 team-games
Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,263 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 13 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.7%	52.7%	−17.0 pp	1,263	Teams won 35.7% of games in this spot, vs 52.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.5%	45.5%	−2.0 pp	8,531	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.5% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.4%	26.3%	−2.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.4% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	47.1%	−1.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 47.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	28.1%	−1.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 28.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.2%	27.0%	−3.8 pp	8,531	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.2% of games, vs 27.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.0%	13.5%	−2.6 pp	8,531	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.0% of games, vs 13.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.8%	9.3%	−2.5 pp	8,531	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.8% of games, vs 9.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.0%	12.3%	−1.4 pp	8,531	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.0% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.7 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.3%	22.6%	−2.3 pp	8,531	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 22.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.3	14.9	−0.6	8,531	Players averaged 14.3 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.0	1.0	−6.0	1,263	Average margin −5.0 vs +1.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.1	114.4	−2.3	1,263	Teams scored 112.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	117.1	113.4	+3.7	1,263	Teams allowed 117.1 points a game, vs 113.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.8%	−0.9 pp	8,531	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.2	227.8	+1.4	1,263	Teams averaged 229.2 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Lost each of the last 3+ games this season (ties break streaks)
Baseline: Other team-games with 3+ prior games this season
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.