NBA · All time: Explained by quality

First meeting vs a former team

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 12.8%
Baseline: 33.2%
Sample: 196 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 196 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	12.8%	33.2%	−20.4 pp	196	Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	31.1%	52.2%	−21.1 pp	196	Players reached 15+ pts in 31.1% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	5.6%	18.6%	−13.0 pp	196	Players reached 25+ pts in 5.6% of games, vs 18.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	17.3%	34.0%	−16.6 pp	196	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.3% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	18.9%	34.3%	−15.4 pp	196	Players reached 5+ ast in 18.9% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	5.1%	12.5%	−7.4 pp	196	Players reached 8+ ast in 5.1% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	3.6%	13.8%	−10.3 pp	196	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 3.6% of games, vs 13.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	16.8%	22.8%	−6.0 pp	196	Players reached 8+ reb in 16.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	12.5	16.3	−3.9	196	Players averaged 12.5 pts, vs 16.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	43.9%	49.1%	−5.2 pp	196	Players reached 2+ threes in 43.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.2%	12.4%	−2.2 pp	196	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.9%	28.4%	−6.5 pp	196	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.9% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 20 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 20 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 12 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	–	–	–	20	Too small to publish in this window: n=20 from 18 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 73 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 73 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 12 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	–	–	–	73	Too small to publish in this window: n=73 from 63 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 12.8%
Baseline: 33.2%
Sample: 196 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 196 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	12.8%	33.2%	−20.4 pp	196	Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	31.1%	52.2%	−21.1 pp	196	Players reached 15+ pts in 31.1% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	5.6%	18.6%	−13.0 pp	196	Players reached 25+ pts in 5.6% of games, vs 18.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	17.3%	34.0%	−16.6 pp	196	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.3% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	18.9%	34.3%	−15.4 pp	196	Players reached 5+ ast in 18.9% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	5.1%	12.5%	−7.4 pp	196	Players reached 8+ ast in 5.1% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	3.6%	13.8%	−10.3 pp	196	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 3.6% of games, vs 13.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	16.8%	22.8%	−6.0 pp	196	Players reached 8+ reb in 16.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	12.5	16.3	−3.9	196	Players averaged 12.5 pts, vs 16.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	43.9%	49.1%	−5.2 pp	196	Players reached 2+ threes in 43.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.2%	12.4%	−2.2 pp	196	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.9%	28.4%	−6.5 pp	196	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.9% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 12.8%
Baseline: 33.2%
Sample: 196 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 196 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	12.8%	33.2%	−20.4 pp	196	Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	31.1%	52.2%	−21.1 pp	196	Players reached 15+ pts in 31.1% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	5.6%	18.6%	−13.0 pp	196	Players reached 25+ pts in 5.6% of games, vs 18.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	17.3%	34.0%	−16.6 pp	196	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.3% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	18.9%	34.3%	−15.4 pp	196	Players reached 5+ ast in 18.9% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	5.1%	12.5%	−7.4 pp	196	Players reached 8+ ast in 5.1% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	3.6%	13.8%	−10.3 pp	196	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 3.6% of games, vs 13.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	16.8%	22.8%	−6.0 pp	196	Players reached 8+ reb in 16.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	12.5	16.3	−3.9	196	Players averaged 12.5 pts, vs 16.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	43.9%	49.1%	−5.2 pp	196	Players reached 2+ threes in 43.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.2%	12.4%	−2.2 pp	196	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.9%	28.4%	−6.5 pp	196	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.9% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 12.8%
Baseline: 33.2%
Sample: 196 player-games
Adjusted: −4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 196 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 9 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	12.8%	33.2%	−20.4 pp	196	Players reached 20+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 33.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	31.1%	52.2%	−21.1 pp	196	Players reached 15+ pts in 31.1% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	5.6%	18.6%	−13.0 pp	196	Players reached 25+ pts in 5.6% of games, vs 18.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	17.3%	34.0%	−16.6 pp	196	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.3% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	18.9%	34.3%	−15.4 pp	196	Players reached 5+ ast in 18.9% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	5.1%	12.5%	−7.4 pp	196	Players reached 8+ ast in 5.1% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	3.6%	13.8%	−10.3 pp	196	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 3.6% of games, vs 13.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	16.8%	22.8%	−6.0 pp	196	Players reached 8+ reb in 16.8% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	12.5	16.3	−3.9	196	Players averaged 12.5 pts, vs 16.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	43.9%	49.1%	−5.2 pp	196	Players reached 2+ threes in 43.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.2%	12.4%	−2.2 pp	196	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.9%	28.4%	−6.5 pp	196	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.9% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(33 KB)

Definitions

The spot: First stored game against that former team since leaving it
Baseline: Same players vs all other opponents (incl. later former-team meetings)
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.