Baseline

NBA · All time: Explained by quality

4th+ game of a road trip

Season window

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 10+ reb in 11.1% of games, vs 12.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot
11.1%
Baseline
12.2%
Sample
3,638 player-games
Adjusted
−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 3,638 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

MeasureIn spotBaselineDiff.nWhat it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →11.1%12.2%−1.1 pp3,638Players reached 10+ reb in 11.1% of games, vs 12.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

MeasureIn spotBaselineDiff.nWhat it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →116.4114.8+1.6543Teams allowed 116.4 points a game, vs 114.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

MeasureIn spotBaselineDiff.nWhat it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →43.1%45.7%−2.6 pp543Teams won 43.1% of games in this spot, vs 45.7% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →26.2%25.5%+0.6 pp3,638Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →13.4%12.9%+0.5 pp3,638Players reached 25+ pts in 13.4% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →26.1%26.1%+0.0 pp3,638Players reached 3+ threes in 26.1% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →25.7%25.2%+0.5 pp3,638Players reached 20+ pts in 25.7% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →27.4%27.2%+0.3 pp3,638Players reached 5+ ast in 27.4% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →46.2%46.1%+0.1 pp3,638Players reached 2+ threes in 46.2% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →44.6%44.2%+0.5 pp3,638Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →8.8%8.9%−0.0 pp3,638Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →8.4%8.4%+0.0 pp3,638Players reached 8+ ast in 8.4% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →21.2%21.9%−0.7 pp3,638Players reached 8+ reb in 21.2% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →-3.0-1.8−1.2543Average margin −3.0 vs −1.8 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →14.814.7+0.13,638Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →113.4113.0+0.3543Teams scored 113.4 points a game, vs 113.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →229.8227.8+1.9543Teams averaged 229.8 game total, vs 227.8. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot
4th or later consecutive away game
Baseline
Other AWAY team-games
All-time seasons
2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule
game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp
Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.