NBA · All time: Explained by quality
Facing elimination
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 22.1%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 466 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 466 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 22.1% | 26.4% | −4.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 31.5% | 28.1% | +3.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 20+ pts in 31.5% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.7 pp | 466 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.6% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 48.1% | 47.7% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 15+ pts in 48.1% of games, vs 47.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.2% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.2% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.0% | 14.7% | +0.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 14.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.0% | 11.3% | +0.8 pp | 466 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.0% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.7% | 13.3% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.7% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.2% | 47.3% | −3.1 pp | 466 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.2% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.7% | 8.1% | −0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.3% | 27.7% | −0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.2 | 466 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 148 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 148 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 148 | Too small to publish in this window: n=148 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 22.1%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 466 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 466 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 22.1% | 26.4% | −4.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 31.5% | 28.1% | +3.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 20+ pts in 31.5% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.7 pp | 466 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.6% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 48.1% | 47.7% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 15+ pts in 48.1% of games, vs 47.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.2% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.2% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.0% | 14.7% | +0.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 14.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.0% | 11.3% | +0.8 pp | 466 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.0% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.7% | 13.3% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.7% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.2% | 47.3% | −3.1 pp | 466 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.2% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.7% | 8.1% | −0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.3% | 27.7% | −0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.2 | 466 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 22.1%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 466 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 466 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 22.1% | 26.4% | −4.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 31.5% | 28.1% | +3.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 20+ pts in 31.5% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.7 pp | 466 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.6% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 48.1% | 47.7% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 15+ pts in 48.1% of games, vs 47.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.2% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.2% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.0% | 14.7% | +0.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 14.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.0% | 11.3% | +0.8 pp | 466 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.0% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.7% | 13.3% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.7% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.2% | 47.3% | −3.1 pp | 466 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.2% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.7% | 8.1% | −0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.3% | 27.7% | −0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.2 | 466 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 22.1%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 466 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 466 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 22.1% | 26.4% | −4.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 3+ threes in 22.1% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 31.5% | 28.1% | +3.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 20+ pts in 31.5% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.7 pp | 466 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.6% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 48.1% | 47.7% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 15+ pts in 48.1% of games, vs 47.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 26.2% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ reb in 26.2% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.0% | 14.7% | +0.3 pp | 466 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 14.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.0% | 11.3% | +0.8 pp | 466 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.0% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.7% | 13.3% | +0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.7% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.2% | 47.3% | −3.1 pp | 466 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.2% of games, vs 47.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.7% | 8.1% | −0.4 pp | 466 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.3% | 27.7% | −0.5 pp | 466 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.2 | 466 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Team has 3 series losses entering the game
- Baseline
- Other playoff team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.