NBA · All time: Explained by quality

Revenge: blown out in the last meeting

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 35.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 35.2%
Baseline: 51.7%
Sample: 759 team-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 759 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 10 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.2%	51.7%	−16.5 pp	759	Teams won 35.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.4%	13.1%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.4% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	27.8%	−1.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.7%	45.3%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.7% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.9%	8.7%	−0.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.9% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.2%	26.4%	−2.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.2% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.1%	25.9%	−1.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.1% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.2	0.6	−5.8	759	Average margin −5.2 vs +0.6 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.8	−0.4	5,066	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	111.0	114.2	−3.3	759	Teams scored 111.0 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.1	113.6	+2.5	759	Teams allowed 116.1 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.7%	46.9%	−0.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.1%	26.8%	−0.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.1% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.6%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.6% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.4%	22.4%	−1.0 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.1	227.9	−0.8	759	Teams averaged 227.1 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 26.2%
Baseline: 25.3%
Sample: 366 player-games
Adjusted: +1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 366 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	26.2%	25.3%	+0.9 pp	366	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.3%	25.4%	+2.0 pp	366	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.3% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.3%	21.0%	+0.3 pp	366	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.3% of games, vs 21.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.2%	25.2%	−2.0 pp	366	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.2% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	10.1%	11.7%	−1.5 pp	366	Players reached 25+ pts in 10.1% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.2%	42.9%	+0.3 pp	366	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.2% of games, vs 42.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.3%	46.7%	+0.6 pp	366	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.0%	6.9%	−0.9 pp	366	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.0% of games, vs 6.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	25.7%	25.6%	+0.0 pp	366	Players reached 5+ ast in 25.7% of games, vs 25.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.9%	10.8%	+0.1 pp	366	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.9% of games, vs 10.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.7%	8.1%	+0.7 pp	366	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.1	14.4	−0.3	366	Players averaged 14.1 pts, vs 14.4. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 32.2% of games in this spot, vs 52.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 32.2%
Baseline: 52.0%
Sample: 264 team-games
Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 264 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 8 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	32.2%	52.0%	−19.8 pp	264	Teams won 32.2% of games in this spot, vs 52.0% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	24.4%	27.0%	−2.6 pp	1,808	Players reached 5+ ast in 24.4% of games, vs 27.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	22.0%	25.0%	−3.1 pp	1,808	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 22.0% of games, vs 25.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	10.7%	12.5%	−1.9 pp	1,808	Players reached 25+ pts in 10.7% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.2%	8.4%	−2.1 pp	1,808	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.2% of games, vs 8.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.8%	8.3%	−1.5 pp	1,808	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.8% of games, vs 8.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-6.2	0.7	−6.9	264	Average margin −6.2 vs +0.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.1	14.7	−0.5	1,808	Players averaged 14.1 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	112.1	115.5	−3.4	264	Teams scored 112.1 points a game, vs 115.5. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	118.2	114.8	+3.5	264	Teams allowed 118.2 points a game, vs 114.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	46.0%	−0.2 pp	1,808	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	19.8%	21.5%	−1.7 pp	1,808	Players reached 8+ reb in 19.8% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.0%	45.1%	−2.1 pp	1,808	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.0% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	23.2%	25.0%	−1.8 pp	1,808	Players reached 20+ pts in 23.2% of games, vs 25.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.1%	26.1%	−1.0 pp	1,808	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.1% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.0%	11.0%	−1.0 pp	1,808	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.0% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	230.3	230.3	+0.0	264	Teams averaged 230.3 game total, vs 230.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 35.2%
Baseline: 51.7%
Sample: 759 team-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 759 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 10 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.2%	51.7%	−16.5 pp	759	Teams won 35.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.4%	13.1%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.4% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	27.8%	−1.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.7%	45.3%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.7% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.9%	8.7%	−0.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.9% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.2%	26.4%	−2.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.2% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.1%	25.9%	−1.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.1% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.2	0.6	−5.8	759	Average margin −5.2 vs +0.6 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.8	−0.4	5,066	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	111.0	114.2	−3.3	759	Teams scored 111.0 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.1	113.6	+2.5	759	Teams allowed 116.1 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.7%	46.9%	−0.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.1%	26.8%	−0.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.1% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.6%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.6% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.4%	22.4%	−1.0 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.1	227.9	−0.8	759	Teams averaged 227.1 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 35.2%
Baseline: 51.7%
Sample: 759 team-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 759 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 10 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.2%	51.7%	−16.5 pp	759	Teams won 35.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.4%	13.1%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.4% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	27.8%	−1.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.7%	45.3%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.7% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.9%	8.7%	−0.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.9% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.2%	26.4%	−2.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.2% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.1%	25.9%	−1.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.1% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.2	0.6	−5.8	759	Average margin −5.2 vs +0.6 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.8	−0.4	5,066	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	111.0	114.2	−3.3	759	Teams scored 111.0 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.1	113.6	+2.5	759	Teams allowed 116.1 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.7%	46.9%	−0.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.1%	26.8%	−0.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.1% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.6%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.6% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.4%	22.4%	−1.0 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.1	227.9	−0.8	759	Teams averaged 227.1 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 35.2%
Baseline: 51.7%
Sample: 759 team-games
Adjusted: −1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 759 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 10 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.2%	51.7%	−16.5 pp	759	Teams won 35.2% of games in this spot, vs 51.7% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.4%	13.1%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.4% of games, vs 13.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.6%	27.8%	−1.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 27.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.3%	9.0%	−1.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 9.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.7%	45.3%	−1.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.7% of games, vs 45.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.9%	8.7%	−0.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.9% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.2%	26.4%	−2.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.2% of games, vs 26.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.1%	25.9%	−1.8 pp	5,066	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.1% of games, vs 25.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-5.2	0.6	−5.8	759	Average margin −5.2 vs +0.6 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.4	14.8	−0.4	5,066	Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	111.0	114.2	−3.3	759	Teams scored 111.0 points a game, vs 114.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.1	113.6	+2.5	759	Teams allowed 116.1 points a game, vs 113.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.7%	46.9%	−0.2 pp	5,066	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.1%	26.8%	−0.7 pp	5,066	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.1% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.6%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	5,066	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.6% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.4%	22.4%	−1.0 pp	5,066	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.1	227.9	−0.8	759	Teams averaged 227.1 game total, vs 227.9. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Lost the last meeting (within 400 days) by the blowout margin
Baseline: Other team-games with a previous meeting
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.