NBA · All time: Myth checked
Homecoming: road game in birth state
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 47.8%
- Baseline
- 45.6%
- Sample
- 811 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 811 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.6% | +2.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 27.4% | 26.1% | +1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 20+ pts in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.4% | 13.3% | +0.1 pp | 811 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.4% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.0% | 26.2% | −0.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.0% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.3% | 8.6% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 28.3% | −0.9 pp | 811 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 9.9% | 11.1% | −1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 10+ reb in 9.9% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.2% | 20.7% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.2% of games, vs 20.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.1% | 48.5% | −1.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.1% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.0% | 28.0% | −0.0 pp | 811 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.4% | +0.3 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.9 | +0.4 | 811 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 37 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 37 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 37 | Too small to publish in this window: n=37 from 31 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 5+ ast in 23.5% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 23.5%
- Baseline
- 26.8%
- Sample
- 293 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 293 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 23.5% | 26.8% | −3.2 pp | 293 | Players reached 5+ ast in 23.5% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.3% | 23.5% | +2.8 pp | 293 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.3% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.0% | 11.6% | +1.4 pp | 293 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.0% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.4% | 47.1% | −2.7 pp | 293 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.4% of games, vs 47.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 4.8% | 7.7% | −3.0 pp | 293 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.8% of games, vs 7.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.3% | 27.3% | −2.0 pp | 293 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.3% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 6.1% | 7.5% | −1.3 pp | 293 | Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 7.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 7.2% | 10.2% | −3.0 pp | 293 | Players reached 10+ reb in 7.2% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.7% | 19.8% | −3.1 pp | 293 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.7% of games, vs 19.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 22.9% | 23.3% | −0.4 pp | 293 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 22.9% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.0% | 44.5% | −0.5 pp | 293 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.0% of games, vs 44.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.5 | +0.1 | 293 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.5. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 47.8%
- Baseline
- 45.6%
- Sample
- 811 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 811 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.6% | +2.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 27.4% | 26.1% | +1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 20+ pts in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.4% | 13.3% | +0.1 pp | 811 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.4% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.0% | 26.2% | −0.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.0% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.3% | 8.6% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 28.3% | −0.9 pp | 811 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 9.9% | 11.1% | −1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 10+ reb in 9.9% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.2% | 20.7% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.2% of games, vs 20.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.1% | 48.5% | −1.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.1% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.0% | 28.0% | −0.0 pp | 811 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.4% | +0.3 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.9 | +0.4 | 811 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 47.8%
- Baseline
- 45.6%
- Sample
- 811 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 811 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.6% | +2.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 27.4% | 26.1% | +1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 20+ pts in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.4% | 13.3% | +0.1 pp | 811 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.4% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.0% | 26.2% | −0.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.0% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.3% | 8.6% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 28.3% | −0.9 pp | 811 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 9.9% | 11.1% | −1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 10+ reb in 9.9% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.2% | 20.7% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.2% of games, vs 20.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.1% | 48.5% | −1.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.1% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.0% | 28.0% | −0.0 pp | 811 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.4% | +0.3 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.9 | +0.4 | 811 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 47.8%
- Baseline
- 45.6%
- Sample
- 811 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 811 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.6% | +2.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 27.4% | 26.1% | +1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 20+ pts in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.4% | 13.3% | +0.1 pp | 811 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.4% of games, vs 13.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.0% | 26.2% | −0.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.0% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.3% | 8.6% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 28.3% | −0.9 pp | 811 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 28.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 9.9% | 11.1% | −1.2 pp | 811 | Players reached 10+ reb in 9.9% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.2% | 20.7% | −0.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.2% of games, vs 20.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.1% | 48.5% | −1.4 pp | 811 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.1% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.0% | 28.0% | −0.0 pp | 811 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.4% | +0.3 pp | 811 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.9 | +0.4 | 811 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Away game in the player's US birth state (ESPN birthPlace.state), excluding players whose own team is in that state; neutral/intl sites excluded
- Baseline
- Other away games of players with a known US birth state
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.