NBA · All time: Myth checked
First game back after missing games (any reason)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 28.2%
- Baseline
- 29.6%
- Sample
- 497 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 497 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.2% | 29.6% | −1.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 29.8% | 28.7% | +1.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 20+ pts in 29.8% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.1% | 14.9% | +0.2 pp | 497 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.1% of games, vs 14.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.6% | 30.2% | −0.6 pp | 497 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.6% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.9% | 10.2% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.9% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.1% | 23.1% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.1% of games, vs 23.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.7% | 12.7% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 9.7% | −1.5 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 53.5% | 48.8% | +4.7 pp | 497 | Players reached 15+ pts in 53.5% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 49.5% | 48.4% | +1.1 pp | 497 | Players reached 2+ threes in 49.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.6% | 28.0% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 16.1 | 15.5 | +0.6 | 497 | Players averaged 16.1 pts, vs 15.5. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 5 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 5 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 10+ reb in 5.8% of games, vs 11.2%. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 5.8%
- Baseline
- 11.2%
- Sample
- 172 player-games
- Adjusted
- −5.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 172 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 5.8% | 11.2% | −5.4 pp | 172 | Players reached 10+ reb in 5.8% of games, vs 11.2%. Adjusted: −5.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 22.7% | 27.9% | −5.2 pp | 172 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 22.7% of games, vs 27.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.6% | 27.6% | −2.0 pp | 172 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.6% of games, vs 27.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.9% | 21.8% | −5.0 pp | 172 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.9% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.8% | 14.0% | −1.2 pp | 172 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 14.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.6% | 9.3% | −1.8 pp | 172 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.6% of games, vs 9.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 43.6% | 47.6% | −4.0 pp | 172 | Players reached 2+ threes in 43.6% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 25.6% | 29.2% | −3.6 pp | 172 | Players reached 5+ ast in 25.6% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 5.8% | 9.1% | −3.3 pp | 172 | Players reached 8+ ast in 5.8% of games, vs 9.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 52.3% | 48.6% | +3.7 pp | 172 | Players reached 15+ pts in 52.3% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.2% | 27.4% | −1.2 pp | 172 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.2% of games, vs 27.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.3 | +0.1 | 172 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.3. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 28.2%
- Baseline
- 29.6%
- Sample
- 497 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 497 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.2% | 29.6% | −1.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 29.8% | 28.7% | +1.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 20+ pts in 29.8% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.1% | 14.9% | +0.2 pp | 497 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.1% of games, vs 14.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.6% | 30.2% | −0.6 pp | 497 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.6% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.9% | 10.2% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.9% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.1% | 23.1% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.1% of games, vs 23.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.7% | 12.7% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 9.7% | −1.5 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 53.5% | 48.8% | +4.7 pp | 497 | Players reached 15+ pts in 53.5% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 49.5% | 48.4% | +1.1 pp | 497 | Players reached 2+ threes in 49.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.6% | 28.0% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 16.1 | 15.5 | +0.6 | 497 | Players averaged 16.1 pts, vs 15.5. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 28.2%
- Baseline
- 29.6%
- Sample
- 497 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 497 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.2% | 29.6% | −1.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 29.8% | 28.7% | +1.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 20+ pts in 29.8% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.1% | 14.9% | +0.2 pp | 497 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.1% of games, vs 14.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.6% | 30.2% | −0.6 pp | 497 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.6% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.9% | 10.2% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.9% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.1% | 23.1% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.1% of games, vs 23.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.7% | 12.7% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 9.7% | −1.5 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 53.5% | 48.8% | +4.7 pp | 497 | Players reached 15+ pts in 53.5% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 49.5% | 48.4% | +1.1 pp | 497 | Players reached 2+ threes in 49.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.6% | 28.0% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 16.1 | 15.5 | +0.6 | 497 | Players averaged 16.1 pts, vs 15.5. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 28.2%
- Baseline
- 29.6%
- Sample
- 497 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 497 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 28.2% | 29.6% | −1.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 29.8% | 28.7% | +1.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 20+ pts in 29.8% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 15.1% | 14.9% | +0.2 pp | 497 | Players reached 25+ pts in 15.1% of games, vs 14.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 29.6% | 30.2% | −0.6 pp | 497 | Players reached 5+ ast in 29.6% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.9% | 10.2% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.9% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.1% | 23.1% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.1% of games, vs 23.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.7% | 12.7% | −2.0 pp | 497 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 9.7% | −1.5 pp | 497 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 53.5% | 48.8% | +4.7 pp | 497 | Players reached 15+ pts in 53.5% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 49.5% | 48.4% | +1.1 pp | 497 | Players reached 2+ threes in 49.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.6% | 28.0% | −0.4 pp | 497 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 16.1 | 15.5 | +0.6 | 497 | Players averaged 16.1 pts, vs 15.5. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.1 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Same team & season; NFL missed 1+ team game, NBA/NHL 3+ team games with no stored row; previous game was a regular role (NFL snap>=50%, NBA 20+ min, NHL 12+ TOI). Reason (injury/illness/scratch/suspension) NOT known
- Baseline
- Same players coming off a played previous team game (0 missed)
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.