NBA · All time: Myth checked
Close-out chance
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 50.2%
- Baseline
- 46.2%
- Sample
- 472 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 50.2% | 46.2% | +4.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 27.5% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ reb in 27.5% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 24.6% | 26.0% | −1.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 3+ threes in 24.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 30.3% | 28.8% | +1.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 30.3% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.4% | 14.8% | −0.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.4% of games, vs 14.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.8% | 47.9% | −1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.8% of games, vs 47.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.2% | 13.2% | +1.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.2% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.2% | 28.7% | −0.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.2% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.1% | 11.2% | +0.8 pp | 472 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.1% of games, vs 11.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.7% | 8.0% | +0.7 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.7% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.6% | 27.5% | +1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.6% of games, vs 27.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.1 | 472 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 152 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 152 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 152 | Too small to publish in this window: n=152 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 50.2%
- Baseline
- 46.2%
- Sample
- 472 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 50.2% | 46.2% | +4.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 27.5% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ reb in 27.5% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 24.6% | 26.0% | −1.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 3+ threes in 24.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 30.3% | 28.8% | +1.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 30.3% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.4% | 14.8% | −0.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.4% of games, vs 14.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.8% | 47.9% | −1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.8% of games, vs 47.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.2% | 13.2% | +1.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.2% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.2% | 28.7% | −0.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.2% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.1% | 11.2% | +0.8 pp | 472 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.1% of games, vs 11.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.7% | 8.0% | +0.7 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.7% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.6% | 27.5% | +1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.6% of games, vs 27.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.1 | 472 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 50.2%
- Baseline
- 46.2%
- Sample
- 472 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 50.2% | 46.2% | +4.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 27.5% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ reb in 27.5% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 24.6% | 26.0% | −1.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 3+ threes in 24.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 30.3% | 28.8% | +1.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 30.3% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.4% | 14.8% | −0.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.4% of games, vs 14.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.8% | 47.9% | −1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.8% of games, vs 47.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.2% | 13.2% | +1.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.2% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.2% | 28.7% | −0.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.2% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.1% | 11.2% | +0.8 pp | 472 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.1% of games, vs 11.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.7% | 8.0% | +0.7 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.7% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.6% | 27.5% | +1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.6% of games, vs 27.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.1 | 472 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 50.2%
- Baseline
- 46.2%
- Sample
- 472 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 50.2% | 46.2% | +4.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 2+ threes in 50.2% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 27.5% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ reb in 27.5% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 24.6% | 26.0% | −1.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 3+ threes in 24.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 30.3% | 28.8% | +1.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 30.3% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.4% | 14.8% | −0.4 pp | 472 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.4% of games, vs 14.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.8% | 47.9% | −1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.8% of games, vs 47.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 14.2% | 13.2% | +1.0 pp | 472 | Players reached 10+ reb in 14.2% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.2% | 28.7% | −0.5 pp | 472 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.2% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 12.1% | 11.2% | +0.8 pp | 472 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 12.1% of games, vs 11.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.7% | 8.0% | +0.7 pp | 472 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.7% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.6% | 27.5% | +1.1 pp | 472 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.6% of games, vs 27.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.4 | 15.2 | +0.1 | 472 | Players averaged 15.4 pts, vs 15.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(35 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Team has 3 series wins entering the game
- Baseline
- Other playoff team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.