NBA · All time: Edge
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 56.0%
- Baseline
- 49.2%
- Sample
- 952 team-games
- Adjusted
- +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 952 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 56.0% | 49.2% | +6.7 pp | 952 | Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 2.5 | -0.3 | +2.8 | 952 | Average margin +2.5 vs −0.3 in the baseline. Adjusted: +3.2 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 115.8 | 113.8 | +2.0 | 952 | Teams scored 115.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.8% | 26.3% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.6% | 8.8% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.7% | 13.0% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.7% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.3% | 27.8% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.3% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.3% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.3% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 26.5% | +0.8 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 26.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.1% | 8.7% | +0.4 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.2% | 45.2% | −0.0 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.2% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.7% | 46.9% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.1% | 22.3% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.8 | +0.1 | 6,375 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.3 | 114.1 | −0.9 | 952 | Teams allowed 113.3 points a game, vs 114.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 229.1 | 228.0 | +1.1 | 952 | Teams averaged 229.1 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 3+ threes in 35.0% of games, vs 25.3%. Adjusted: +10.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 35.0%
- Baseline
- 25.3%
- Sample
- 226 player-games
- Adjusted
- +10.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 226 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 35.0% | 25.3% | +9.7 pp | 226 | Players reached 3+ threes in 35.0% of games, vs 25.3%. Adjusted: +10.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 25.2% | 20.7% | +4.5 pp | 226 | Players reached 8+ reb in 25.2% of games, vs 20.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 53.1% | 46.9% | +6.2 pp | 226 | Players reached 2+ threes in 53.1% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.6% | 11.1% | +3.5 pp | 226 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.6% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.8% | 6.5% | +2.3 pp | 226 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.8% of games, vs 6.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.3% | 25.4% | +2.9 pp | 226 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.3% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.5% | 42.3% | +4.1 pp | 226 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.5% of games, vs 42.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.7% | 8.1% | +1.6 pp | 226 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.1% | 25.3% | +0.8 pp | 226 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.1% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.2% | 11.0% | −0.8 pp | 226 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.2% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.2% | 24.7% | +0.5 pp | 226 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.2% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.3 | +0.5 | 226 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.3. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 35 | Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 35 | Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 35 | Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 35 | Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 35 | Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 52.5% of games in this spot, vs 49.7% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 52.5%
- Baseline
- 49.7%
- Sample
- 301 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.8 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 301 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 52.5% | 49.7% | +2.8 pp | 301 | Teams won 52.5% of games in this spot, vs 49.7% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 24.9% | 24.7% | +0.2 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.9% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.0% | 21.5% | −1.5 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.0% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.8% | 24.8% | +0.0 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.8% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.6% | 26.7% | −0.1 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.6% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.3% | 25.9% | +0.4 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.3% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.6% | 12.3% | +0.3 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.6% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.2% | 8.1% | +0.1 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 43.8% | 45.0% | −1.2 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 15+ pts in 43.8% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.1% | 46.1% | −1.0 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.1% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.0% | 8.2% | −0.2 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.0% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.5% | 11.0% | −0.4 pp | 2,069 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.5% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 1.7 | -0.2 | +1.9 | 301 | Average margin +1.7 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.5 | 14.7 | −0.1 | 2,069 | Players averaged 14.5 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 116.6 | 114.9 | +1.8 | 301 | Teams scored 116.6 points a game, vs 114.9. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 114.9 | 115.1 | −0.2 | 301 | Teams allowed 114.9 points a game, vs 115.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 231.5 | 230.0 | +1.6 | 301 | Teams averaged 231.5 game total, vs 230.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 56.0%
- Baseline
- 49.2%
- Sample
- 952 team-games
- Adjusted
- +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 952 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 56.0% | 49.2% | +6.7 pp | 952 | Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 2.5 | -0.3 | +2.8 | 952 | Average margin +2.5 vs −0.3 in the baseline. Adjusted: +3.2 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 115.8 | 113.8 | +2.0 | 952 | Teams scored 115.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.8% | 26.3% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.6% | 8.8% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.7% | 13.0% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.7% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.3% | 27.8% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.3% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.3% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.3% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 26.5% | +0.8 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 26.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.1% | 8.7% | +0.4 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.2% | 45.2% | −0.0 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.2% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.7% | 46.9% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.1% | 22.3% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.8 | +0.1 | 6,375 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.3 | 114.1 | −0.9 | 952 | Teams allowed 113.3 points a game, vs 114.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 229.1 | 228.0 | +1.1 | 952 | Teams averaged 229.1 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 56.0%
- Baseline
- 49.2%
- Sample
- 952 team-games
- Adjusted
- +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 952 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 56.0% | 49.2% | +6.7 pp | 952 | Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 2.5 | -0.3 | +2.8 | 952 | Average margin +2.5 vs −0.3 in the baseline. Adjusted: +3.2 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 115.8 | 113.8 | +2.0 | 952 | Teams scored 115.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.8% | 26.3% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.6% | 8.8% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.7% | 13.0% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.7% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.3% | 27.8% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.3% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.3% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.3% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 26.5% | +0.8 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 26.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.1% | 8.7% | +0.4 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.2% | 45.2% | −0.0 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.2% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.7% | 46.9% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.1% | 22.3% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.8 | +0.1 | 6,375 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.3 | 114.1 | −0.9 | 952 | Teams allowed 113.3 points a game, vs 114.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 229.1 | 228.0 | +1.1 | 952 | Teams averaged 229.1 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 56.0%
- Baseline
- 49.2%
- Sample
- 952 team-games
- Adjusted
- +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 952 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 56.0% | 49.2% | +6.7 pp | 952 | Teams won 56.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 2.5 | -0.3 | +2.8 | 952 | Average margin +2.5 vs −0.3 in the baseline. Adjusted: +3.2 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 115.8 | 113.8 | +2.0 | 952 | Teams scored 115.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.8% | 26.3% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.6% | 8.8% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.7% | 13.0% | +0.7 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.7% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.3% | 27.8% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.3% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.3% | 25.7% | +0.5 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.3% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.4% | 26.5% | +0.8 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.4% of games, vs 26.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.1% | 8.7% | +0.4 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.2% | 45.2% | −0.0 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.2% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.7% | 46.9% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.1% | 22.3% | −0.1 pp | 6,375 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.1% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.8 | +0.1 | 6,375 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.3 | 114.1 | −0.9 | 952 | Teams allowed 113.3 points a game, vs 114.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 229.1 | 228.0 | +1.1 | 952 | Teams averaged 229.1 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.5 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Team had 1+ rest day and the opponent played yesterday
- Baseline
- Other team-games with a previous game
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.