NBA · All time: Edge
Facing a former team
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
- In the spot
- 15.0%
- Baseline
- 33.5%
- Sample
- 561 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 561 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 15.0% | 33.5% | −18.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot. |
Explained by quality 10 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 34.4% | 52.6% | −18.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 15+ pts in 34.4% of games, vs 52.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 8.2% | 12.5% | −4.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.4% | 28.5% | −5.1 pp | 561 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.4% of games, vs 28.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 17.1% | 34.3% | −17.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.1% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.2% | 34.4% | −10.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.2% of games, vs 34.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 7.3% | 18.9% | −11.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 25+ pts in 7.3% of games, vs 18.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.4% | 22.9% | −6.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.4% of games, vs 22.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 4.6% | 14.0% | −9.4 pp | 561 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.6% of games, vs 14.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.3% | 12.6% | −5.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 12.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 13.0 | 16.4 | −3.5 | 561 | Players averaged 13.0 pts, vs 16.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.9% | 49.1% | −4.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 56 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 56 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 43 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 14.9% of games, vs 32.3%. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
- In the spot
- 14.9%
- Baseline
- 32.3%
- Sample
- 302 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 302 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 14.9% | 32.3% | −17.4 pp | 302 | Players reached 20+ pts in 14.9% of games, vs 32.3%. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot. |
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 32.5% | 52.6% | −20.1 pp | 302 | Players reached 15+ pts in 32.5% of games, vs 52.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.5% | 32.0% | −7.5 pp | 302 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.5% of games, vs 32.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.0% | 11.1% | −4.1 pp | 302 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.0% of games, vs 11.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 16.9% | 32.6% | −15.8 pp | 302 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.9% of games, vs 32.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 5.3% | 12.6% | −7.3 pp | 302 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 5.3% of games, vs 12.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 7.9% | 17.7% | −9.8 pp | 302 | Players reached 25+ pts in 7.9% of games, vs 17.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 13.0 | 16.2 | −3.2 | 302 | Players averaged 13.0 pts, vs 16.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 8.9% | 11.6% | −2.7 pp | 302 | Players reached 10+ reb in 8.9% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.9% | 22.0% | −5.1 pp | 302 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.9% of games, vs 22.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.4% | 48.0% | −2.6 pp | 302 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.4% of games, vs 48.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 24.8% | 27.7% | −2.9 pp | 302 | Players reached 3+ threes in 24.8% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
- In the spot
- 15.0%
- Baseline
- 33.5%
- Sample
- 561 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 561 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 15.0% | 33.5% | −18.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot. |
Explained by quality 10 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 34.4% | 52.6% | −18.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 15+ pts in 34.4% of games, vs 52.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 8.2% | 12.5% | −4.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.4% | 28.5% | −5.1 pp | 561 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.4% of games, vs 28.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 17.1% | 34.3% | −17.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.1% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.2% | 34.4% | −10.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.2% of games, vs 34.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 7.3% | 18.9% | −11.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 25+ pts in 7.3% of games, vs 18.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.4% | 22.9% | −6.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.4% of games, vs 22.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 4.6% | 14.0% | −9.4 pp | 561 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.6% of games, vs 14.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.3% | 12.6% | −5.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 12.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 13.0 | 16.4 | −3.5 | 561 | Players averaged 13.0 pts, vs 16.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.9% | 49.1% | −4.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
- In the spot
- 15.0%
- Baseline
- 33.5%
- Sample
- 561 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 561 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 15.0% | 33.5% | −18.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot. |
Explained by quality 10 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 34.4% | 52.6% | −18.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 15+ pts in 34.4% of games, vs 52.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 8.2% | 12.5% | −4.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.4% | 28.5% | −5.1 pp | 561 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.4% of games, vs 28.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 17.1% | 34.3% | −17.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.1% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.2% | 34.4% | −10.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.2% of games, vs 34.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 7.3% | 18.9% | −11.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 25+ pts in 7.3% of games, vs 18.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.4% | 22.9% | −6.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.4% of games, vs 22.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 4.6% | 14.0% | −9.4 pp | 561 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.6% of games, vs 14.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.3% | 12.6% | −5.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 12.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 13.0 | 16.4 | −3.5 | 561 | Players averaged 13.0 pts, vs 16.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.9% | 49.1% | −4.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
- In the spot
- 15.0%
- Baseline
- 33.5%
- Sample
- 561 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 561 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 15.0% | 33.5% | −18.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 20+ pts in 15.0% of games, vs 33.5%. Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot. |
Explained by quality 10 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 34.4% | 52.6% | −18.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 15+ pts in 34.4% of games, vs 52.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 8.2% | 12.5% | −4.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.4% | 28.5% | −5.1 pp | 561 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.4% of games, vs 28.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 17.1% | 34.3% | −17.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 17.1% of games, vs 34.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.2% | 34.4% | −10.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.2% of games, vs 34.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 7.3% | 18.9% | −11.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 25+ pts in 7.3% of games, vs 18.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 16.4% | 22.9% | −6.5 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ reb in 16.4% of games, vs 22.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 4.6% | 14.0% | −9.4 pp | 561 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.6% of games, vs 14.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.3% | 12.6% | −5.3 pp | 561 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.3% of games, vs 12.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 13.0 | 16.4 | −3.5 | 561 | Players averaged 13.0 pts, vs 16.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.9% | 49.1% | −4.2 pp | 561 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.9% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Opponent is a team the player has stored games for and has since left (games-row history only; NHL ARI=UTA)
- Baseline
- Same players (anyone with a former team at that date) vs all other opponents
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.