NBA · All time: Edge

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pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 225.1
Baseline: 229.2
Sample: 1,031 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 1,031 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	225.1	229.2	−4.1	1,031	Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.1%	44.9%	+1.1 pp	13,299	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.1% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.3%	25.7%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.3% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.5%	27.5%	+1.0 pp	13,299	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.5% of games, vs 27.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.8%	25.2%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.8% of games, vs 25.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.9%	12.5%	+2.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.9% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.6%	26.3%	+1.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	48.2%	46.3%	+1.8 pp	13,299	Players reached 2+ threes in 48.2% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	24.1%	21.7%	+2.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ reb in 24.1% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.9%	8.3%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.9% of games, vs 8.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.0%	11.8%	+1.2 pp	13,299	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	14.7	+0.5	13,299	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.0%	8.6%	+0.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.0% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	56.3%	54.2%	+2.1 pp	1,031	Home teams won 56.3%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	4.6%	+0.3 pp	1,031	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.6%. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 5+ ast in 22.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 22.8%
Baseline: 26.3%
Sample: 416 player-games
Adjusted: −4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 416 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	22.8%	26.3%	−3.4 pp	416	Players reached 5+ ast in 22.8% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	41.6%	43.3%	−1.7 pp	416	Players reached 15+ pts in 41.6% of games, vs 43.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	44.0%	47.4%	−3.4 pp	416	Players reached 2+ threes in 44.0% of games, vs 47.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.0%	11.0%	+1.9 pp	416	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.0% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.4%	20.7%	+1.6 pp	416	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.4% of games, vs 20.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	27.9%	24.9%	+3.0 pp	416	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.9% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.9%	24.4%	+2.5 pp	416	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.9% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.7%	8.1%	+0.6 pp	416	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.7% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.2%	6.4%	+1.8 pp	416	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.7%	10.4%	+2.3 pp	416	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.7% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	25.6%	+0.3 pp	416	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 25.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.3	+0.3	416	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.3. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	32	Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	32	Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	32	Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 224.9 combined points, vs 231.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 224.9
Baseline: 231.7
Sample: 270 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 270 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	224.9	231.7	−6.8	270	Games averaged 224.9 combined points, vs 231.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.2%	7.9%	+1.3 pp	3,559	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.2% of games, vs 7.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.7%	20.9%	+1.8 pp	3,559	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.7% of games, vs 20.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.3%	44.9%	+0.4 pp	3,559	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 44.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.3%	24.7%	+0.6 pp	3,559	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	26.0%	24.5%	+1.6 pp	3,559	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.0% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.4%	26.8%	−0.4 pp	3,559	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.4% of games, vs 26.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.0%	26.0%	+0.0 pp	3,559	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.0% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.1%	12.2%	+0.9 pp	3,559	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.1% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.3%	8.1%	+0.2 pp	3,559	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.9%	4.0%	+1.9 pp	270	5.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.0%	45.7%	+1.2 pp	3,559	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.0% of games, vs 45.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	10.7%	+1.1 pp	3,559	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 10.7%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.8%	55.7%	−0.8 pp	270	Home teams won 54.8%, vs 55.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.7	14.6	+0.1	3,559	Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 225.1
Baseline: 229.2
Sample: 1,031 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 1,031 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	225.1	229.2	−4.1	1,031	Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.1%	44.9%	+1.1 pp	13,299	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.1% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.3%	25.7%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.3% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.5%	27.5%	+1.0 pp	13,299	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.5% of games, vs 27.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.8%	25.2%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.8% of games, vs 25.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.9%	12.5%	+2.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.9% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.6%	26.3%	+1.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	48.2%	46.3%	+1.8 pp	13,299	Players reached 2+ threes in 48.2% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	24.1%	21.7%	+2.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ reb in 24.1% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.9%	8.3%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.9% of games, vs 8.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.0%	11.8%	+1.2 pp	13,299	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	14.7	+0.5	13,299	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.0%	8.6%	+0.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.0% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	56.3%	54.2%	+2.1 pp	1,031	Home teams won 56.3%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	4.6%	+0.3 pp	1,031	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.6%. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 225.1
Baseline: 229.2
Sample: 1,031 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 1,031 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	225.1	229.2	−4.1	1,031	Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.1%	44.9%	+1.1 pp	13,299	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.1% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.3%	25.7%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.3% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.5%	27.5%	+1.0 pp	13,299	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.5% of games, vs 27.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.8%	25.2%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.8% of games, vs 25.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.9%	12.5%	+2.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.9% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.6%	26.3%	+1.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	48.2%	46.3%	+1.8 pp	13,299	Players reached 2+ threes in 48.2% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	24.1%	21.7%	+2.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ reb in 24.1% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.9%	8.3%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.9% of games, vs 8.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.0%	11.8%	+1.2 pp	13,299	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	14.7	+0.5	13,299	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.0%	8.6%	+0.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.0% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	56.3%	54.2%	+2.1 pp	1,031	Home teams won 56.3%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	4.6%	+0.3 pp	1,031	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.6%. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 225.1
Baseline: 229.2
Sample: 1,031 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 1,031 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	225.1	229.2	−4.1	1,031	Games averaged 225.1 combined points, vs 229.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.1%	44.9%	+1.1 pp	13,299	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.1% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.3%	25.7%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.3% of games, vs 25.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.5%	27.5%	+1.0 pp	13,299	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.5% of games, vs 27.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.8%	25.2%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.8% of games, vs 25.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.9%	12.5%	+2.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.9% of games, vs 12.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.6%	26.3%	+1.3 pp	13,299	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 26.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	48.2%	46.3%	+1.8 pp	13,299	Players reached 2+ threes in 48.2% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	24.1%	21.7%	+2.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ reb in 24.1% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.9%	8.3%	+2.6 pp	13,299	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.9% of games, vs 8.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.0%	11.8%	+1.2 pp	13,299	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	14.7	+0.5	13,299	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.0%	8.6%	+0.4 pp	13,299	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.0% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	56.3%	54.2%	+2.1 pp	1,031	Home teams won 56.3%, vs 54.2%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	4.6%	+0.3 pp	1,031	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.6%. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(0.7 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Nationally televised in the US (ESPN national flag for the NBA; NHL box-score national market). NFL excluded: ESPN marks ~95% of NFL games national
Baseline: All other games, same league
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.