The strongest signal in the data · NFL
When the wind blows 15 mph or more, quarterbacks reach 200 passing yards 40.3% of the time.
In calmer outdoor games it’s 62.0%. The drop holds against each quarterback’s own norm (−20.8 pp), across 181 QB games.
What these numbers are
Each finding compares how teams or players did in a situation (wind, a back-to-back, a bye week, facing a former team) with how they did otherwise. Every rate comes with its baseline and its sample size. pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates (for example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points).
A spot counts as an Edge only when the gap is statistically clear and still holds after accounting for team or player quality. Many popular angles don’t pass that test; they’re listed as myths checked. How it works →
New · Model Tracker
Every edge as a model, with how it’s doing this season
97 models, each with its rate next to the usual rate, the real count of games, and this season’s numbers so far.
This week’s slates
See this week’s edges → Every league on one page, edges only.
- NFL Sunday and Monday, Nov 15–16, 2026 · 13 games · 25 edge spots · lines posted · props on 13 guide
- NFL Thursday Night, Nov 19, 2026 · 1 game · 3 edge spots · lines posted · props not posted yet guide
- NBA Friday, Nov 13, 2026 · 9 games · 10 edge spots · lines posted · props on 3 guide
- NHL Friday, Nov 13, 2026 · 2 games · 2 edge spots · lines posted · props on 2 guide
Current DraftKings and FanDuel lines as of Thu Nov 12, 10:58 PM ET, not closers. Tags describe history; they aren’t picks.
New · Big Bettors
Big betting accounts on X, graded from their own public picks
27 accounts, Oct 14 – Nov 13, 2026 (ET): 5 had 20+ gradeable straights. The largest sample, @FrieserBurnBets, went 84–83–1 (50.3%). Straights and parlays counted separately; picks still public on X only, so records can look better than the truth.
New · Player props
Hit rates for every active player
Last 5, 10 and 20 games, this season, last season and head to head, against a line you set, with a game-by-game chart. NFL, NBA and NHL.
Headline findings
All-time figures. On Findings you can recompute every rate for this season, last season, or the last 5, 10 or 20 seasons.
Off a bye (13+ days)
58.9% vs 49.2%
n=231 team-games
+6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength
Back-to-back (0 rest)
45.8% vs 50.9%
n=1,372 team-games
−5.8 pp vs expectation for team strength
Back-to-back (0 rest)
43.8% vs 51.1%
n=1,253 team-games
−6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back
56.0% vs 49.2%
n=952 team-games
+7.7 pp vs expectation for team strength
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back
59.0% vs 49.1%
n=864 team-games
+8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength
Dome / closed roof
47.2 vs 44.1
n=445 games
NBA · Avg combined pointsPlayoffs (any round)
214.9 vs 229.0
n=247 games
NBA · Player 20+ ptsFacing a former team
15.0% vs 33.5%
n=561 player-games
−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
Facing elimination
31.6% vs 36.6%
n=1,301 player-games
−5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
Rest is real, and it’s measurable
Team win rate in the spot against the baseline. The adjusted figure compares each team with its own expected result given both teams’ strength and home field.
Myths checked
- Explained by quality NFL: Prime time / intl
QB 200+ pass yds 67.3% vs 62.6%, n=897 - Myth checked NBA: Birthday game
Player 5+ ast 27.0% vs 28.4%, n=126 - Myth checked NHL: Birthday game
Skater 1+ assists 30.5% vs 26.7%, n=344 - Explained by quality NBA: On a 3+ game losing streak
Win rate 35.7% vs 52.7%, n=1,263 - Myth checked NFL: Thursday (not Thanksgiving)
RB 1+ TD 46.6% vs 39.5%, n=268