- 59%Team winsvs 49% typically · 136 of 231 games (58.9%)Teams won more often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+6.8 percentage points).
This season 13 of 14 (93%) vs 47% too few games to judge
Last season 20 of 36 (56%) vs 49% too few games to judge
- 37%RB 70+ rushing yardsvs 29% typically · 117 of 316 RB games (37.0%)RBs reached 70+ rushing yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+8.7 percentage points).
This season 8 of 18 (44%) vs 29% too few games to judge
Last season 19 of 48 (40%) vs 30% too few games to judge
- 57%RB 50+ rushing yardsvs 49% typically · 179 of 316 RB games (56.6%)RBs reached 50+ rushing yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+7.0 percentage points).
This season 11 of 18 (61%) vs 49% too few games to judge
Last season 26 of 48 (54%) vs 50% too few games to judge
- +2.3points a gameAverage final marginvs −0.2 typically · across 231 gamesTeams finished better than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+1.5).
This season +12.6 vs −0.8 across 14 games too few games to judge
Last season +4.1 vs −0.3 across 36 games too few games to judge
Model Tracker
The models, and how they’re doing
Each model is a situation we measured. The big number is how often the thing happened in that situation, next to how often it happens otherwise. “This season” shows whether the same pattern is showing up in the games already played this year.
97models: every situation that held up as an edge
24models apply to games on this week’s slates (see them)
28pointing the same way this season (0 already clear; 64 too early to judge)
How to read it. 40% QB 200+ passing yards, vs 62% typically: in 15+ mph wind, QBs reached 200 yards 40% of the time, against 62% in calmer outdoor games. “73 of 181” is the real count.
This season is the same measure in this season’s games so far (NFL through 2026-11-09; NBA through 2026-11-11; NHL through 2026-11-11): holding up = already clear this season · same direction, not clear yet = leaning the same way · too few games to judge = sample still small.
Click a model to see every game behind it, marked Hit or Miss. This week’s situations come first, then the biggest gaps. A lower number is a lower rate, not a betting instruction; percentage points are the gap between two rates (40% vs 62% is −22). Myths and spots explained by quality aren’t models; they stay on Findings.
NFL · 37 models in 14 situations
NFL · 1 model
Revenge: blown out in the last meeting
Compared with: Other team-games with a previous meeting
- 32%RB 1+ touchdownsvs 40% typically · 92 of 286 RB games (32.2%)RBs reached 1+ touchdowns less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−6.6 percentage points).
This season 6 of 22 (27%) vs 38% too few games to judge
Last season 17 of 56 (30%) vs 38% too few games to judge
NFL · 1 model
Revenge: lost the last meeting
Compared with: Team-games where the team won the last meeting
- 58%QB 200+ passing yardsvs 66% typically · 484 of 835 QB games (58.0%)QBs reached 200+ passing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−5.3 percentage points).
This season 36 of 63 (57%) vs 57% too few games to judge
Last season 68 of 143 (48%) vs 60% same direction, not clear yet
NFL · 5 models
After a blowout win (letdown spot)
Compared with: Other team-games with a scored previous game
- 48%QB 250+ passing yardsvs 37% typically · 225 of 472 QB games (47.7%)QBs reached 250+ passing yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+5.1 percentage points).
This season 15 of 28 (54%) vs 37% too few games to judge
Last season 41 of 79 (52%) vs 33% too few games to judge
- 73%QB 200+ passing yardsvs 62% typically · 346 of 472 QB games (73.3%)QBs reached 200+ passing yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+4.8 percentage points).
This season 22 of 28 (79%) vs 62% too few games to judge
Last season 60 of 79 (76%) vs 56% too few games to judge
- 43%WR/TE 40+ receiving yardsvs 39% typically · 1,009 of 2,347 WR/TE games (43.0%)Receivers reached 40+ receiving yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+2.7 percentage points).
This season 65 of 142 (46%) vs 37% too few games to judge
Last season 173 of 407 (43%) vs 34% holding up
- 33%WR/TE 50+ receiving yardsvs 29% typically · 780 of 2,347 WR/TE games (33.2%)Receivers reached 50+ receiving yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+2.1 percentage points).
This season 51 of 142 (36%) vs 28% too few games to judge
Last season 129 of 407 (32%) vs 25% holding up
- 243.5passing yards a gameQB average passing yardsvs 223.9 typically · across 472 QB gamesQBs averaged more passing yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+8.0).
This season 265.4 vs 223.4 across 28 QB games too few games to judge
Last season 243.1 vs 212.1 across 79 QB games too few games to judge
- 35%QB 250+ passing yardsvs 40% typically · 467 of 1,323 QB games (35.3%)QBs reached 250+ passing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.8 percentage points).
This season 29 of 86 (34%) vs 39% too few games to judge
Last season 64 of 208 (31%) vs 38% same direction, not clear yet
- 40%QB 200+ passing yardsvs 62% typically · 73 of 181 QB games (40.3%)QBs reached 200+ passing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−20.8 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 15 of 45 (33%) vs 60% too few games to judge
- 30%QB 225+ passing yardsvs 48% typically · 55 of 181 QB games (30.4%)QBs reached 225+ passing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−17.8 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 13 of 45 (29%) vs 46% too few games to judge
- 31%QB 2+ passing TDsvs 41% typically · 57 of 181 QB games (31.5%)QBs reached 2+ passing TDs less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−12.3 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 13 of 45 (29%) vs 44% too few games to judge
- 24%QB 250+ passing yardsvs 35% typically · 44 of 181 QB games (24.3%)QBs reached 250+ passing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−11.5 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 11 of 45 (24%) vs 35% too few games to judge
- 31%WR/TE 40+ receiving yardsvs 38% typically · 269 of 873 WR/TE games (30.8%)Receivers reached 40+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−6.7 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 58 of 214 (27%) vs 35% too few games to judge
- 22%WR/TE 50+ receiving yardsvs 29% typically · 195 of 873 WR/TE games (22.3%)Receivers reached 50+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−6.3 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 35 of 214 (16%) vs 25% too few games to judge
- 12%WR/TE 70+ receiving yardsvs 16% typically · 109 of 873 WR/TE games (12.5%)Receivers reached 70+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.3 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 20 of 214 (9%) vs 13% too few games to judge
- 192.8passing yards a gameQB average passing yardsvs 221.0 typically · across 181 QB gamesQBs averaged fewer passing yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−28.6).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 177.7 vs 216.4 across 45 QB games too few games to judge
- 32.6receiving yards a gameWR/TE average receiving yardsvs 36.9 typically · across 873 WR/TE gamesReceivers averaged fewer receiving yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−4.3).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 29.9 vs 34.8 across 214 WR/TE games too few games to judge
- 24%RB 70+ rushing yardsvs 30% typically · 76 of 317 RB games (24.0%)RBs reached 70+ rushing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−7.7 percentage points).
This season 11 of 48 (23%) vs 29% too few games to judge
Last season 5 of 42 (12%) vs 31% too few games to judge
- 42.4points a gameCombined points per gamevs 44.7 typically · across 245 gamesGames in this spot scored less than other games (a whole-game measure, so no team-strength adjustment is needed). A scoring average, not an over/under record.
This season 45.4 vs 45.7 across 34 games too few games to judge
Last season 45.4 vs 45.9 across 35 games too few games to judge
- 42%QB 225+ passing yardsvs 48% typically · 209 of 502 QB games (41.6%)QBs reached 225+ passing yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−7.3 percentage points).
This season 30 of 67 (45%) vs 48% too few games to judge
Last season 32 of 71 (45%) vs 44% too few games to judge
- 26%WR/TE 50+ receiving yardsvs 29% typically · 655 of 2,493 WR/TE games (26.3%)Receivers reached 50+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.7 percentage points).
This season 93 of 357 (26%) vs 30% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 93 of 365 (25%) vs 23% not showing up
NFL · 4 models
First game back after missing games (any reason)
Compared with: Same players coming off a played previous team game (0 missed)
- 29%WR/TE 40+ receiving yardsvs 49% typically · 235 of 808 WR/TE games (29.1%)Receivers reached 40+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−4.7 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 13 of 46 (28%) vs 47% too few games to judge
Last season 30 of 143 (21%) vs 46% holding up
- 22%WR/TE 50+ receiving yardsvs 38% typically · 175 of 808 WR/TE games (21.7%)Receivers reached 50+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.8 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 11 of 46 (24%) vs 36% too few games to judge
Last season 20 of 143 (14%) vs 34% holding up
- 195.3passing yards a gameQB average passing yardsvs 234.8 typically · across 148 QB gamesQBs averaged fewer passing yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−16.2).
This season 155.3 vs 233.9 across 6 QB games too few games to judge
Last season 178.5 vs 224.5 across 24 QB games too few games to judge
- 30.8receiving yards a gameWR/TE average receiving yardsvs 45.8 typically · across 808 WR/TE gamesReceivers averaged fewer receiving yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.2).
This season 28.9 vs 43.9 across 46 WR/TE games too few games to judge
Last season 26.3 vs 43.5 across 143 WR/TE games holding up
- 33%WR/TE 40+ receiving yardsvs 37% typically · 162 of 493 WR/TE games (32.9%)Receivers reached 40+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−4.6 percentage points).
This season 38 of 116 (33%) vs 38% too few games to judge
Last season 36 of 107 (34%) vs 34% too few games to judge
- 57%Pass completion ratevs 60% typically · 4,094 of 7,120 pass plays (57.5%)Passes were completed less often than usual.
This season 873 of 1,486 (59%) vs 60% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,621 of 2,895 (56%) vs 60% holding up
- 27%WR/TE 50+ receiving yardsvs 29% typically · 725 of 2,735 WR/TE games (26.5%)Receivers reached 50+ receiving yards less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.3 percentage points).
This season 93 of 357 (26%) vs 30% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 118 of 458 (26%) vs 23% not showing up
- 35.1receiving yards a gameWR/TE average receiving yardsvs 37.1 typically · across 2,735 WR/TE gamesReceivers averaged fewer receiving yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.9).
This season 34.7 vs 37.8 across 357 WR/TE games same direction, not clear yet
Last season 34.2 vs 34.2 across 458 WR/TE games not showing up
- 47.2points a gameCombined points per gamevs 44.1 typically · across 445 gamesGames in this spot scored more than other games (a whole-game measure, so no team-strength adjustment is needed). A scoring average, not an over/under record.
This season 47.3 vs 45.6 across 36 games too few games to judge
Last season 46.8 vs 45.8 across 90 games too few games to judge
- 41%WR/TE 40+ receiving yardsvs 37% typically · 1,824 of 4,416 WR/TE games (41.3%)Receivers reached 40+ receiving yards more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+2.1 percentage points).
This season 138 of 365 (38%) vs 37% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 348 of 883 (39%) vs 34% same direction, not clear yet
- 40.4receiving yards a gameWR/TE average receiving yardsvs 36.6 typically · across 4,416 WR/TE gamesReceivers averaged more receiving yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+1.9).
This season 38.5 vs 36.6 across 365 WR/TE games same direction, not clear yet
Last season 39.8 vs 34.2 across 883 WR/TE games same direction, not clear yet
NFL · 1 model
Season finale (regular season)
Compared with: Other regular-season games of completed seasons
- 204.0passing yards a gameQB average passing yardsvs 227.1 typically · across 204 QB gamesQBs averaged fewer passing yards than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−15.0).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 178.1 vs 218.0 across 34 QB games too few games to judge
NBA · 30 models in 14 situations
- 48%Team winsvs 51% typically · 964 of 2,021 games (47.7%)Teams won less often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−3.4 percentage points).
This season 39 of 84 (46%) vs 52% too few games to judge
Last season 313 of 662 (47%) vs 51% same direction, not clear yet
- −1.0points a gameAverage final marginvs +0.4 typically · across 2,021 gamesTeams finished worse than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−1.5).
This season −1.5 vs +0.6 across 84 games too few games to judge
Last season −1.2 vs +0.4 across 662 games holding up
- 52%Team winsvs 50% typically · 864 of 1,659 games (52.1%)Teams won more often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+2.4 percentage points).
This season 26 of 51 (51%) vs 50% too few games to judge
Last season 278 of 537 (52%) vs 50% same direction, not clear yet
- +0.7points a gameAverage final marginvs −0.2 typically · across 1,659 gamesTeams finished better than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+0.8).
This season +2.3 vs −0.4 across 51 games too few games to judge
Last season +0.6 vs −0.1 across 537 games same direction, not clear yet
NBA · 2 models
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back
Compared with: Other team-games with a previous game
- 56%Team winsvs 49% typically · 533 of 952 games (56.0%)Teams won more often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+7.7 percentage points).
This season 18 of 35 (51%) vs 50% too few games to judge
Last season 158 of 301 (52%) vs 50% same direction, not clear yet
- +2.5points a gameAverage final marginvs −0.3 typically · across 952 gamesTeams finished better than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+3.2).
This season +2.7 vs −0.3 across 35 games too few games to judge
Last season +1.7 vs −0.2 across 301 games same direction, not clear yet
- 22%Player 3+ threes madevs 27% typically · 176 of 788 player games (22.3%)Players reached 3+ threes made less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−5.9 percentage points).
This season 36 of 193 (19%) vs 26% too few games to judge
Last season 48 of 198 (24%) vs 26% too few games to judge
- 43%Player 2+ threes madevs 47% typically · 337 of 788 player games (42.8%)Players reached 2+ threes made less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−5.8 percentage points).
This season 74 of 193 (38%) vs 48% too few games to judge
Last season 86 of 198 (43%) vs 46% too few games to judge
- 25%Player 5+ assistsvs 28% typically · 194 of 788 player games (24.6%)Players reached 5+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−5.5 percentage points).
This season 48 of 193 (25%) vs 26% too few games to judge
Last season 50 of 198 (25%) vs 27% too few games to judge
- 46%Team winsvs 51% typically · 629 of 1,372 games (45.8%)Teams won less often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−5.8 percentage points).
This season 29 of 59 (49%) vs 51% too few games to judge
Last season 213 of 441 (48%) vs 50% same direction, not clear yet
- −1.7points a gameAverage final marginvs +0.4 typically · across 1,372 gamesTeams finished worse than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−2.4).
This season −1.6 vs +0.5 across 59 games too few games to judge
Last season −1.2 vs +0.2 across 441 games same direction, not clear yet
- 45%Team winsvs 50% typically · 173 of 384 games (45.1%)Teams won less often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−4.4 percentage points).
This season 7 of 16 (44%) vs 51% too few games to judge
Last season 56 of 116 (48%) vs 50% too few games to judge
- −1.9points a gameAverage final marginvs +0.1 typically · across 384 gamesTeams finished worse than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−1.7).
This season −0.2 vs +0.1 across 16 games too few games to judge
Last season −0.9 vs +0.0 across 116 games too few games to judge
NBA · 2 models
After a blowout win (letdown spot)
Compared with: Other team-games with a scored previous game
- 62%Team winsvs 49% typically · 542 of 871 games (62.2%)Teams won more often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+4.0 percentage points).
This season 26 of 41 (63%) vs 48% too few games to judge
Last season 195 of 299 (65%) vs 48% holding up
- +4.4points a gameAverage final marginvs −0.5 typically · across 871 gamesTeams finished better than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+0.9).
This season +4.5 vs −0.6 across 41 games too few games to judge
Last season +5.4 vs −0.7 across 299 games holding up
NBA · 1 model
Facing a former team
Compared with: Same players (anyone with a former team at that date) vs all other opponents
- 15%Player 20+ pointsvs 34% typically · 84 of 561 player games (15.0%)Players reached 20+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.5 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 6 of 56 (11%) vs 31% too few games to judge
Last season 45 of 302 (15%) vs 32% holding up
- 9%Player 40+ points + rebounds + assistsvs 12% typically · 50 of 564 player games (8.9%)Players reached 40+ points + rebounds + assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.1 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 12 of 190 (6%) vs 10% too few games to judge
NBA · 8 models
Bounce-back after missing the line
Compared with: Same players after a game that hit the line
- 6%Player 8+ assistsvs 38% typically · 3,024 of 49,343 player games (6.1%)Players reached 8+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.5 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 116 of 1,883 (6%) vs 34% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 926 of 16,181 (6%) vs 37% holding up
- 16%Player 30+ points + rebounds + assistsvs 56% typically · 6,543 of 40,233 player games (16.3%)Players reached 30+ points + rebounds + assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.4 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 251 of 1,541 (16%) vs 54% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 2,079 of 13,388 (16%) vs 55% holding up
- 18%Player 5+ assistsvs 57% typically · 7,005 of 39,755 player games (17.6%)Players reached 5+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.1 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 231 of 1,541 (15%) vs 58% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 2,278 of 13,154 (17%) vs 55% holding up
- 31%Player 15+ pointsvs 65% typically · 9,506 of 31,080 player games (30.6%)Players reached 15+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.1 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 334 of 1,207 (28%) vs 65% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 3,164 of 10,197 (31%) vs 64% holding up
- 6%Player 40+ points + rebounds + assistsvs 39% typically · 2,980 of 49,132 player games (6.1%)Players reached 40+ points + rebounds + assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.8 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 92 of 1,908 (5%) vs 35% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 896 of 16,143 (6%) vs 38% holding up
- 17%Player 20+ pointsvs 53% typically · 6,918 of 40,574 player games (17.1%)Players reached 20+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.6 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 269 of 1,558 (17%) vs 49% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 2,267 of 13,421 (17%) vs 51% same direction, not clear yet
- 8%Player 10+ reboundsvs 44% typically · 3,938 of 47,863 player games (8.2%)Players reached 10+ rebounds less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.5 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 149 of 1,847 (8%) vs 38% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,236 of 15,807 (8%) vs 40% holding up
- 15%Player 8+ reboundsvs 51% typically · 6,449 of 42,958 player games (15.0%)Players reached 8+ rebounds less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.0 percentage points). Much of the raw gap is about which players land in this spot, so the adjusted number is the fairer one.
This season 247 of 1,651 (15%) vs 48% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 2,139 of 14,161 (15%) vs 48% same direction, not clear yet
NBA · 2 models
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game
Compared with: Same players after a game above their 25th percentile
- 25%Player 20+ pointsvs 26% typically · 3,127 of 12,341 player games (25.3%)Players reached 20+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.9 percentage points).
This season 137 of 529 (26%) vs 25% not showing up
Last season 928 of 3,927 (24%) vs 25% holding up
- 14.7points a gamePlayer average pointsvs 15.0 typically · across 12,341 player gamesPlayers averaged fewer points than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−0.4).
This season 14.1 vs 14.4 across 529 player games same direction, not clear yet
Last season 14.3 vs 14.8 across 3,927 player games holding up
- 214.9points a gameCombined points per gamevs 229.0 typically · across 247 gamesGames in this spot scored less than other games (a whole-game measure, so no team-strength adjustment is needed). A scoring average, not an over/under record.
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 215.8 vs 231.2 across 81 games too few games to judge
- 24%Player 8+ reboundsvs 22% typically · 828 of 3,462 player games (23.9%)Players reached 8+ rebounds more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+1.5 percentage points).
This season 11 of 60 (18%) vs 21% too few games to judge
Last season 268 of 1,176 (23%) vs 21% same direction, not clear yet
- 225.1points a gameCombined points per gamevs 229.2 typically · across 1,031 gamesGames in this spot scored less than other games (a whole-game measure, so no team-strength adjustment is needed). A scoring average, not an over/under record.
This season 224.2 vs 227.2 across 32 games too few games to judge
Last season 224.9 vs 231.7 across 270 games holding up
NHL · 30 models in 7 situations
- 47%Team winsvs 51% typically · 717 of 1,535 games (46.7%)Teams won less often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−3.4 percentage points).
This season 40 of 77 (52%) vs 50% too few games to judge
Last season 270 of 564 (48%) vs 51% same direction, not clear yet
- 35%Skater 1+ pointsvs 37% typically · 9,010 of 25,470 skater games (35.4%)Skaters reached 1+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.0 percentage points).
This season 474 of 1,284 (37%) vs 37% not showing up
Last season 3,299 of 9,336 (35%) vs 37% holding up
- 25%Skater 1+ assistsvs 26% typically · 6,251 of 25,470 skater games (24.5%)Skaters reached 1+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−0.8 percentage points).
This season 334 of 1,284 (26%) vs 26% not showing up
Last season 2,296 of 9,336 (25%) vs 26% same direction, not clear yet
- 23%Skater 3+ shots on goalvs 25% typically · 5,961 of 25,470 skater games (23.4%)Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−0.7 percentage points).
This season 295 of 1,284 (23%) vs 23% not showing up
Last season 2,118 of 9,336 (23%) vs 24% same direction, not clear yet
- −0.2goals a gameAverage final marginvs +0.0 typically · across 1,535 gamesTeams finished worse than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−0.2).
This season −0.1 vs −0.0 across 77 games too few games to judge
Last season −0.1 vs +0.0 across 564 games same direction, not clear yet
- 1.6shots on goal a gameSkater average shots on goalvs 1.7 typically · across 25,470 skater gamesSkaters averaged fewer shots on goal than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−0.0).
This season 1.6 vs 1.6 across 1,284 skater games not showing up
Last season 1.6 vs 1.6 across 9,336 skater games same direction, not clear yet
- 53%Team winsvs 49% typically · 1,238 of 2,353 games (52.6%)Teams won more often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+3.1 percentage points).
This season 90 of 176 (51%) vs 49% too few games to judge
Last season 327 of 629 (52%) vs 50% same direction, not clear yet
- +0.1goals a gameAverage final marginvs −0.0 typically · across 2,353 gamesTeams finished better than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+0.1).
This season +0.1 vs −0.1 across 176 games too few games to judge
Last season +0.0 vs −0.0 across 629 games same direction, not clear yet
NHL · 9 models
Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back
Compared with: Other team-games with a previous game
- 59%Team winsvs 49% typically · 510 of 864 games (59.0%)Teams won more often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+8.5 percentage points).
This season 35 of 54 (65%) vs 48% too few games to judge
Last season 160 of 282 (57%) vs 49% holding up
- 39%Skater 1+ pointsvs 36% typically · 5,563 of 14,314 skater games (38.9%)Skaters reached 1+ points more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+3.2 percentage points).
This season 368 of 902 (41%) vs 36% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,805 of 4,656 (39%) vs 37% same direction, not clear yet
- 27%Skater 1+ assistsvs 25% typically · 3,910 of 14,314 skater games (27.3%)Skaters reached 1+ assists more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+2.6 percentage points).
This season 264 of 902 (29%) vs 25% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,288 of 4,656 (28%) vs 25% holding up
- 48%Skater 2+ shots on goalvs 46% typically · 6,834 of 14,314 skater games (47.7%)Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+2.3 percentage points).
This season 398 of 902 (44%) vs 44% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 2,185 of 4,656 (47%) vs 45% holding up
- 26%Skater 3+ shots on goalvs 24% typically · 3,727 of 14,314 skater games (26.0%)Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+2.2 percentage points).
This season 229 of 902 (25%) vs 22% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,161 of 4,656 (25%) vs 23% holding up
- 13%Skater 4+ shots on goalvs 12% typically · 1,799 of 14,314 skater games (12.6%)Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+1.3 percentage points).
This season 97 of 902 (11%) vs 10% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 563 of 4,656 (12%) vs 11% holding up
- 17%Skater 1+ goalsvs 16% typically · 2,396 of 14,314 skater games (16.7%)Skaters reached 1+ goals more often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+1.2 percentage points).
This season 159 of 902 (18%) vs 16% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 772 of 4,656 (17%) vs 16% same direction, not clear yet
- +0.5goals a gameAverage final marginvs −0.0 typically · across 864 gamesTeams finished better than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (+0.4).
This season +0.7 vs −0.1 across 54 games too few games to judge
Last season +0.3 vs −0.0 across 282 games same direction, not clear yet
- 1.7shots on goal a gameSkater average shots on goalvs 1.7 typically · across 14,314 skater gamesSkaters averaged more shots on goal than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (+0.1).
This season 1.7 vs 1.6 across 902 skater games same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1.7 vs 1.6 across 4,656 skater games holding up
- 44%Team winsvs 51% typically · 549 of 1,253 games (43.8%)Teams won less often than usual in this spot, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−6.1 percentage points).
This season 25 of 66 (38%) vs 52% too few games to judge
Last season 197 of 430 (46%) vs 51% holding up
- 34%Skater 1+ pointsvs 37% typically · 7,166 of 20,795 skater games (34.5%)Skaters reached 1+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−2.0 percentage points).
This season 361 of 1,104 (33%) vs 37% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 2,521 of 7,103 (35%) vs 37% same direction, not clear yet
- 24%Skater 1+ assistsvs 26% typically · 4,973 of 20,795 skater games (23.9%)Skaters reached 1+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.5 percentage points).
This season 251 of 1,104 (23%) vs 26% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,751 of 7,103 (25%) vs 26% same direction, not clear yet
- 15%Skater 1+ goalsvs 16% typically · 3,113 of 20,795 skater games (15.0%)Skaters reached 1+ goals less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.0 percentage points).
This season 156 of 1,104 (14%) vs 16% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,090 of 7,103 (15%) vs 16% same direction, not clear yet
- 23%Skater 3+ shots on goalvs 25% typically · 4,842 of 20,795 skater games (23.3%)Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−1.0 percentage points).
This season 233 of 1,104 (21%) vs 23% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1,584 of 7,103 (22%) vs 24% same direction, not clear yet
- 11%Skater 4+ shots on goalvs 12% typically · 2,246 of 20,795 skater games (10.8%)Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−0.8 percentage points).
This season 93 of 1,104 (8%) vs 11% same direction, not clear yet
Last season 722 of 7,103 (10%) vs 11% holding up
- −0.3goals a gameAverage final marginvs +0.1 typically · across 1,253 gamesTeams finished worse than usual on the scoreboard, and it still holds against what each team’s strength predicts (−0.3).
This season −0.7 vs +0.1 across 66 games too few games to judge
Last season −0.2 vs +0.0 across 430 games same direction, not clear yet
- 1.6shots on goal a gameSkater average shots on goalvs 1.7 typically · across 20,795 skater gamesSkaters averaged fewer shots on goal than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−0.0).
This season 1.5 vs 1.6 across 1,104 skater games same direction, not clear yet
Last season 1.6 vs 1.6 across 7,103 skater games holding up
- 32%Skater 1+ pointsvs 37% typically · 411 of 1,301 skater games (31.6%)Skaters reached 1+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−5.0 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 100 of 368 (27%) vs 37% too few games to judge
- 21%Skater 1+ assistsvs 26% typically · 271 of 1,301 skater games (20.8%)Skaters reached 1+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−4.8 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 66 of 368 (18%) vs 26% too few games to judge
- 33%Skater 1+ pointsvs 37% typically · 760 of 2,336 skater games (32.5%)Skaters reached 1+ points less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−4.8 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 218 of 687 (32%) vs 37% too few games to judge
- 22%Skater 1+ assistsvs 26% typically · 516 of 2,336 skater games (22.1%)Skaters reached 1+ assists less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−4.0 percentage points).
This season no games in this spot yet
Last season 152 of 687 (22%) vs 26% too few games to judge
NHL · 1 model
First game after a midseason move
Compared with: Player-games with a previous stored game on the same team
- 4%Skater 4+ shots on goalvs 12% typically · 9 of 227 skater games (4.0%)Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal less often than usual, and it still holds against each player’s own normal (−3.3 percentage points).
This season 0 of 6 (0%) vs 10% too few games to judge
Last season 4 of 68 (6%) vs 11% too few games to judge
Historical rates, not picks. Every figure is a past rate with its sample size; a past rate doesn’t predict any single game. How models are chosen →