NHL · All time: Myth checked
First meeting vs a former team
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 32.1%
- Baseline
- 31.2%
- Sample
- 467 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 467 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.1% | 31.2% | +0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.1% | 13.1% | +1.1 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.1% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 18.4% | 17.9% | +0.5 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 18.4% of games, vs 17.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 6.2% | 7.5% | −1.3 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 6.2% of games, vs 7.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 20.6% | 21.4% | −0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 20.6% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 37.3% | 38.7% | −1.4 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 37.3% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | 467 | Skaters averaged 1.4 shots on goal, vs 1.4. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 58 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 58 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 7 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 41 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 19.6% of games, vs 18.0%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 19.6%
- Baseline
- 18.0%
- Sample
- 194 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 194 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 19.6% | 18.0% | +1.6 pp | 194 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 19.6% of games, vs 18.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 38.7% | 39.0% | −0.3 pp | 194 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 38.7% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 18.0% | 22.0% | −4.0 pp | 194 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 18.0% of games, vs 22.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 13.9% | 13.7% | +0.3 pp | 194 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 13.9% of games, vs 13.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 30.4% | 32.1% | −1.7 pp | 194 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 30.4% of games, vs 32.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 6.2% | 7.6% | −1.4 pp | 194 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 6.2% of games, vs 7.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | 194 | Skaters averaged 1.4 shots on goal, vs 1.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 32.1%
- Baseline
- 31.2%
- Sample
- 467 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 467 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.1% | 31.2% | +0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.1% | 13.1% | +1.1 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.1% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 18.4% | 17.9% | +0.5 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 18.4% of games, vs 17.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 6.2% | 7.5% | −1.3 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 6.2% of games, vs 7.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 20.6% | 21.4% | −0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 20.6% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 37.3% | 38.7% | −1.4 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 37.3% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | 467 | Skaters averaged 1.4 shots on goal, vs 1.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 32.1%
- Baseline
- 31.2%
- Sample
- 467 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 467 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.1% | 31.2% | +0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.1% | 13.1% | +1.1 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.1% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 18.4% | 17.9% | +0.5 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 18.4% of games, vs 17.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 6.2% | 7.5% | −1.3 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 6.2% of games, vs 7.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 20.6% | 21.4% | −0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 20.6% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 37.3% | 38.7% | −1.4 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 37.3% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | 467 | Skaters averaged 1.4 shots on goal, vs 1.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 32.1%
- Baseline
- 31.2%
- Sample
- 467 player-games
- Adjusted
- +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 467 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 32.1% | 31.2% | +0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.1% of games, vs 31.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.1% | 13.1% | +1.1 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.1% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 18.4% | 17.9% | +0.5 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 18.4% of games, vs 17.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 6.2% | 7.5% | −1.3 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 6.2% of games, vs 7.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 20.6% | 21.4% | −0.9 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 20.6% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 37.3% | 38.7% | −1.4 pp | 467 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 37.3% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | 467 | Skaters averaged 1.4 shots on goal, vs 1.4. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(61 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- First stored game against that former team since leaving it
- Baseline
- Same players vs all other opponents (incl. later former-team meetings)
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.