NHL · All time: Edge

3rd game in 4 nights

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 46.7%
Baseline: 50.7%
Sample: 1,535 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,535 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 6 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.7%	50.7%	−4.0 pp	1,535	Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	35.4%	36.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.4% of games, vs 36.7%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.5%	25.6%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.4%	24.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 24.7%. Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	1,535	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.2 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	25,470	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.4%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	11.2%	11.8%	−0.6 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.2% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,535	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.5%	16.0%	−0.5 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.5% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,535	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	1,535	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.7%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 16.7%
Baseline: 15.7%
Sample: 1,284 player-games
Adjusted: +0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,284 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.7%	15.7%	+1.0 pp	1,284	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.7%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.0%	22.7%	+0.3 pp	1,284	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.0% of games, vs 22.7%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	36.9%	36.5%	+0.4 pp	1,284	Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.9% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	44.1%	43.8%	+0.3 pp	1,284	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.1% of games, vs 43.8%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.4%	10.2%	+0.2 pp	1,284	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.4% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	26.0%	25.5%	+0.5 pp	1,284	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.0% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.6	+0.0	1,284	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	77	Too small to publish in this window: n=77 from 71 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	77	Too small to publish in this window: n=77 from 71 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	77	Too small to publish in this window: n=77 from 71 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	77	Too small to publish in this window: n=77 from 71 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	77	Too small to publish in this window: n=77 from 71 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.3% of games, vs 37.2%. Adjusted: −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 35.3%
Baseline: 37.2%
Sample: 9,336 player-games
Adjusted: −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 9,336 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Skater 1+ points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	35.3%	37.2%	−1.9 pp	9,336	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.3% of games, vs 37.2%. Adjusted: −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.9%	50.7%	−2.8 pp	564	Teams won 47.9% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.6%	26.0%	−1.4 pp	9,336	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.5%	16.2%	−0.7 pp	9,336	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.5% of games, vs 16.2%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	22.7%	23.5%	−0.8 pp	9,336	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.7% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.6%	11.1%	−0.5 pp	9,336	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.6% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	44.5%	45.1%	−0.6 pp	9,336	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.5% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.1	0.0	−0.1	564	Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.6	−0.0	9,336	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	564	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.1	3.1	−0.0	564	Teams allowed 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.1	6.3	−0.2	564	Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 46.7%
Baseline: 50.7%
Sample: 1,535 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,535 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 6 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.7%	50.7%	−4.0 pp	1,535	Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	35.4%	36.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.4% of games, vs 36.7%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.5%	25.6%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.4%	24.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 24.7%. Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	1,535	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.2 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	25,470	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.4%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	11.2%	11.8%	−0.6 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.2% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,535	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.5%	16.0%	−0.5 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.5% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,535	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	1,535	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 46.7%
Baseline: 50.7%
Sample: 1,535 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,535 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 6 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.7%	50.7%	−4.0 pp	1,535	Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	35.4%	36.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.4% of games, vs 36.7%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.5%	25.6%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.4%	24.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 24.7%. Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	1,535	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.2 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	25,470	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.4%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	11.2%	11.8%	−0.6 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.2% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,535	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.5%	16.0%	−0.5 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.5% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,535	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	1,535	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 46.7%
Baseline: 50.7%
Sample: 1,535 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,535 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 6 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.7%	50.7%	−4.0 pp	1,535	Teams won 46.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.7% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	35.4%	36.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.4% of games, vs 36.7%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.5%	25.6%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.5% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.4%	24.7%	−1.3 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 24.7%. Adjusted: −0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	1,535	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.2 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	25,470	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.4%	−1.0 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	11.2%	11.8%	−0.6 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.2% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,535	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.5%	16.0%	−0.5 pp	25,470	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.5% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,535	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	1,535	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(1.1 MB)

Definitions

The spot: This game is the 3rd within a 4-day span
Baseline: Other team-games
All-time seasons: 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.