NHL · All time: Edge

Rested team vs opponent on a back-to-back

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 59.0%
Baseline: 49.1%
Sample: 864 team-games
Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 864 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	59.0%	49.1%	+10.0 pp	864	Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	38.9%	36.2%	+2.6 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.9% of games, vs 36.2%. Adjusted: +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	27.3%	25.2%	+2.1 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 27.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Adjusted: +2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	47.7%	46.0%	+1.7 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Adjusted: +2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	26.0%	24.3%	+1.8 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 26.0% of games, vs 24.3%. Adjusted: +2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	12.6%	11.6%	+1.0 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.6% of games, vs 11.6%. Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.7%	15.8%	+0.9 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.8%. Adjusted: +1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.5	-0.0	+0.5	864	Average margin +0.5 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.4 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.7	1.7	+0.1	14,314	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: +0.1 vs each player’s own norm.

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	864	Teams scored 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	2.8	3.1	−0.3	864	Teams allowed 2.8 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	864	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.8% of games, vs 36.1%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 40.8%
Baseline: 36.1%
Sample: 902 player-games
Adjusted: +5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 902 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	40.8%	36.1%	+4.7 pp	902	Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.8% of games, vs 36.1%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	29.3%	25.2%	+4.1 pp	902	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 29.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	25.4%	22.4%	+3.0 pp	902	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 25.4% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	17.6%	15.6%	+2.0 pp	902	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.6% of games, vs 15.6%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.8%	10.2%	+0.6 pp	902	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 10.2%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	44.1%	43.8%	+0.4 pp	902	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.1% of games, vs 43.8%. Not a clear difference.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.7	1.6	+0.1	902	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	54	Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 54 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	54	Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 54 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	54	Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 54 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	54	Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 54 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	54	Too small to publish in this window: n=54 from 54 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 56.7% of games in this spot, vs 49.4% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.3 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 56.7%
Baseline: 49.4%
Sample: 282 team-games
Adjusted: +6.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 282 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 6 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	56.7%	49.4%	+7.4 pp	282	Teams won 56.7% of games in this spot, vs 49.4% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.3 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	27.7%	25.5%	+2.2 pp	4,656	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 27.7% of games, vs 25.5%. Adjusted: +2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	46.9%	44.8%	+2.1 pp	4,656	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.9% of games, vs 44.8%. Adjusted: +2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	24.9%	23.2%	+1.8 pp	4,656	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.9% of games, vs 23.2%. Adjusted: +1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	12.1%	10.9%	+1.2 pp	4,656	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.1% of games, vs 10.9%. Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.7	1.6	+0.1	4,656	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Adjusted: +0.1 vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	38.8%	36.6%	+2.1 pp	4,656	Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.8% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.6%	16.0%	+0.6 pp	4,656	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.6% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.3	-0.0	+0.4	282	Average margin +0.3 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	282	Teams scored 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.0	3.1	−0.2	282	Teams allowed 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.3	6.2	+0.0	282	Teams averaged 6.3 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 59.0%
Baseline: 49.1%
Sample: 864 team-games
Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 864 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	59.0%	49.1%	+10.0 pp	864	Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	38.9%	36.2%	+2.6 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.9% of games, vs 36.2%. Adjusted: +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	27.3%	25.2%	+2.1 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 27.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Adjusted: +2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	47.7%	46.0%	+1.7 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Adjusted: +2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	26.0%	24.3%	+1.8 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 26.0% of games, vs 24.3%. Adjusted: +2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	12.6%	11.6%	+1.0 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.6% of games, vs 11.6%. Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.7%	15.8%	+0.9 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.8%. Adjusted: +1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.5	-0.0	+0.5	864	Average margin +0.5 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.4 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.7	1.7	+0.1	14,314	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: +0.1 vs each player’s own norm.

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	864	Teams scored 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	2.8	3.1	−0.3	864	Teams allowed 2.8 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	864	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 59.0%
Baseline: 49.1%
Sample: 864 team-games
Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 864 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	59.0%	49.1%	+10.0 pp	864	Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	38.9%	36.2%	+2.6 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.9% of games, vs 36.2%. Adjusted: +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	27.3%	25.2%	+2.1 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 27.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Adjusted: +2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	47.7%	46.0%	+1.7 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Adjusted: +2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	26.0%	24.3%	+1.8 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 26.0% of games, vs 24.3%. Adjusted: +2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	12.6%	11.6%	+1.0 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.6% of games, vs 11.6%. Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.7%	15.8%	+0.9 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.8%. Adjusted: +1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.5	-0.0	+0.5	864	Average margin +0.5 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.4 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.7	1.7	+0.1	14,314	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: +0.1 vs each player’s own norm.

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	864	Teams scored 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	2.8	3.1	−0.3	864	Teams allowed 2.8 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	864	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 59.0%
Baseline: 49.1%
Sample: 864 team-games
Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 864 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	59.0%	49.1%	+10.0 pp	864	Teams won 59.0% of games in this spot, vs 49.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	38.9%	36.2%	+2.6 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.9% of games, vs 36.2%. Adjusted: +3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	27.3%	25.2%	+2.1 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 27.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Adjusted: +2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	47.7%	46.0%	+1.7 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 47.7% of games, vs 46.0%. Adjusted: +2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	26.0%	24.3%	+1.8 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 26.0% of games, vs 24.3%. Adjusted: +2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	12.6%	11.6%	+1.0 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.6% of games, vs 11.6%. Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.7%	15.8%	+0.9 pp	14,314	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.7% of games, vs 15.8%. Adjusted: +1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.5	-0.0	+0.5	864	Average margin +0.5 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.4 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.7	1.7	+0.1	14,314	Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: +0.1 vs each player’s own norm.

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	864	Teams scored 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	2.8	3.1	−0.3	864	Teams allowed 2.8 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.2	6.2	−0.0	864	Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(0.6 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Team had 1+ rest day and the opponent played yesterday
Baseline: Other team-games with a previous game
All-time seasons: 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.