NHL · All time: Myth checked
Playoffs (any round)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.0
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 256 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 256 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.0 | 6.2 | −0.2 | 256 | Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.3% | −0.9 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.8% | 36.5% | −0.7 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.8% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.8% | 25.4% | −0.6 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.8% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.5% | +0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.6% | 11.7% | −0.0 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.6% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.8% | 15.9% | −0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.8% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 52.0% | 54.3% | −2.4 pp | 256 | Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.7% | 22.1% | +0.6 pp | 256 | 22.7% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 8,340 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
Too small 10 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 36.0%
- Baseline
- 36.8%
- Sample
- 2,656 player-games
- Adjusted
- −5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,656 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.0% | 36.8% | −0.9 pp | 2,656 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.9% | 25.7% | −0.8 pp | 2,656 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.7% | 45.0% | +0.8 pp | 2,656 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.7% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.9% | 16.1% | −0.2 pp | 2,656 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.9% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.3% | 23.3% | +1.0 pp | 2,656 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.3% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.0% | 10.9% | +1.0 pp | 2,656 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.0% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 2,656 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 82 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 82 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 82 | Too small to publish in this window: n=82 from 82 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.0
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 256 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 256 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.0 | 6.2 | −0.2 | 256 | Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.3% | −0.9 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.8% | 36.5% | −0.7 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.8% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.8% | 25.4% | −0.6 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.8% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.5% | +0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.6% | 11.7% | −0.0 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.6% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.8% | 15.9% | −0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.8% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 52.0% | 54.3% | −2.4 pp | 256 | Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.7% | 22.1% | +0.6 pp | 256 | 22.7% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 8,340 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.0
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 256 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 256 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.0 | 6.2 | −0.2 | 256 | Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.3% | −0.9 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.8% | 36.5% | −0.7 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.8% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.8% | 25.4% | −0.6 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.8% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.5% | +0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.6% | 11.7% | −0.0 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.6% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.8% | 15.9% | −0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.8% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 52.0% | 54.3% | −2.4 pp | 256 | Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.7% | 22.1% | +0.6 pp | 256 | 22.7% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 8,340 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.0
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 256 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 256 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.0 | 6.2 | −0.2 | 256 | Games averaged 6.0 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 46.3% | −0.9 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.8% | 36.5% | −0.7 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.8% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.8% | 25.4% | −0.6 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.8% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.5% | 24.5% | +0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.5% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.6% | 11.7% | −0.0 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.6% of games, vs 11.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.8% | 15.9% | −0.1 pp | 8,340 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.8% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 52.0% | 54.3% | −2.4 pp | 256 | Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.7% | 22.1% | +0.6 pp | 256 | 22.7% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 8,340 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.3 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Cached ESPN season.type = 3 (NFL/NBA) or NHL gameType = 3. Every NFL playoff game is an elimination game
- Baseline
- Regular-season games of the same stored seasons
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.