NHL · All time: Edge
First game after a midseason move
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 4.0%
- Baseline
- 11.7%
- Sample
- 227 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 227 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 4.0% | 11.7% | −7.7 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 5 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 25.6% | 36.5% | −11.0 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 25.6% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 15.0% | 24.5% | −9.5 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.0% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 34.8% | 46.2% | −11.4 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 34.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 17.2% | 25.4% | −8.3 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 17.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.3 | 1.7 | −0.4 | 227 | Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 12.3% | 16.0% | −3.6 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.3% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 6 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 6 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 7 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 6 | Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 68 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 68 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 7 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 68 | Too small to publish in this window: n=68 from 57 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 4.0%
- Baseline
- 11.7%
- Sample
- 227 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 227 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 4.0% | 11.7% | −7.7 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 5 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 25.6% | 36.5% | −11.0 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 25.6% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 15.0% | 24.5% | −9.5 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.0% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 34.8% | 46.2% | −11.4 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 34.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 17.2% | 25.4% | −8.3 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 17.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.3 | 1.7 | −0.4 | 227 | Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 12.3% | 16.0% | −3.6 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.3% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 4.0%
- Baseline
- 11.7%
- Sample
- 227 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 227 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 4.0% | 11.7% | −7.7 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 5 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 25.6% | 36.5% | −11.0 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 25.6% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 15.0% | 24.5% | −9.5 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.0% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 34.8% | 46.2% | −11.4 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 34.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 17.2% | 25.4% | −8.3 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 17.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.3 | 1.7 | −0.4 | 227 | Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 12.3% | 16.0% | −3.6 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.3% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 4.0%
- Baseline
- 11.7%
- Sample
- 227 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 227 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 4.0% | 11.7% | −7.7 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 4.0% of games, vs 11.7%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 5 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 25.6% | 36.5% | −11.0 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 25.6% of games, vs 36.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 15.0% | 24.5% | −9.5 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 15.0% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 34.8% | 46.2% | −11.4 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 34.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 17.2% | 25.4% | −8.3 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 17.2% of games, vs 25.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.3 | 1.7 | −0.4 | 227 | Skaters averaged 1.3 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 12.3% | 16.0% | −3.6 pp | 227 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 12.3% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Team differs from previous stored game in the same season
- Baseline
- Player-games with a previous stored game on the same team
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.